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Electoral intentions of voters in the elections to Verkhovna Rada

Kiev International Institute of Sociology and the fund “Democratic Initiatives in honour of Ilko Kucheriv” conducted the nationwide public opinion survey in a period from 12th to 21th of September, 2014. Data was collected from 2035 respondents living in 110 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except Luhansk and Crimea) through the method of personal interview.The sample was random with quota selection at the last stage and is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

It was impossible to conduct the survey in Lugansk region because of the military operations. Interviews, which should have been conducted in the Lugansk region, were held in the Donetsk region instead as its population in the electoral and other political orientations is the least different from the population of Lugansk region.

Statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed:
3.3% — for indicators close to 50%;
2,8% — for indicators close to 25%;
2,0% — for indicators close to 10%;
1,4% — for indicators close to 5%.

 

If the elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in the penult week of September, the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above would vote for the following parties:

  • 18,3% “Block of Petro Poroshenko” (Y. Lucenko);

  • 4,8%  Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 3,6%  "Batkivshchyna"  (Y. Tymoshenko);

  • 3,2% “Gromadyanska pozitsiya” (A.Grytsenko);

  • 2,7% “Narodnyi front” (A. Yatsenyuk);

  • 2,4% “Sylna Ukraina” (S.Tigipko);

  • 2,2% “Svoboda” (O. Tyagnybok);

  • 2,1% Komunistychna partiya Ukrainy (P. Symonenko);

  • 2,0% “UDAR” of Vitalii Klychko

  • 1,2% “Obiednannya Samopomich” (A. Sadovyi);

  • 3,8% all other parties in total

  • 2,0% would spoil the ballot;

  • 22,5% decided not to participate;

  • 29,0% have not decided yet for whom to vote.




Details

29.9.2014
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