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Socio-political attitudes of the residents of Ukraine and support rating for parties and political leaders: May- June, 2016

On May, 20 – June, 2 2016 Kyiv International Institute of Sociology conducted all-Ukrainian public opinion poll by clients request. Sample consisted of 2043 respondents living in 110 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except for AR of Crimea). Sample was 4-staged with quota selection on the last stage, and is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

 In Luhansk and Donetsk regions poll was conducted only on the territories controlled by Ukrainian government.

Statistical sample error (with probability 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2.8% for indicators close to 25%, 2.0% for indicators close to 10%, 1.4% for indicators close to 5%.

 

Major results:

  • The majority of the Ukrainians believes that government leads the state in wrong direction, and negatively evaluates the activities of the central authorities.

  • Most of the residents believe that the conflict in the East of Ukraine should be resolved via international peace talks

  • The most popular option of foreign policy vector is membership in the European Union but now it is supported by less than a half of the population. Perspective of membership in the Customs union receives only 12% of support.

  • NATO membership is supported by 44%, and 38% of the Ukrainians are against it.

  • 82% of the Ukrainians believe that now Ukraine is in need of a strong leader who would have broad powers

  • If parliamentary elections were held in early June, all-Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna" would get the most votes (22% of votes cast), and representatives of the parties "Block Petra Poroshenka" (13%), "Opozytsiinyi block" (12%), the Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko (11%), “Obiyednannya Samopomich” (11%) and "Hromadyanska pozytsia" (5%) would be presented in the Verkhovna Rada as well.

  • If Presidential elections were held in early June, Yulia Tymoshenko could get the most votes (24% of votes cast), and Petro Poroshenko would participate in the second round (14%).


 

Commentary of KIIS experts: «Sociologists` work became much more difficult over the past two years because of the issues related to the opportunities of polling in Donbas region. There is no reliable statistics about the amount of people living in controlled and uncontrolled parts of Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Sociologists have to decide on the sample distribution under different hypothesis – with or without considering migration, with or without considering uncontrolled territories etc. That is why data may differ from poll to poll by a few percentage points (especially it concerns the ratings). In this particular survey sample was distributed only on the controlled territories of Donbas in the same proportion that, according to the CEC data, corresponds to the proportion of Donbas voters in the last parliamentary elections (October, 2014)».

 

Details

 


9.6.2016
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