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Electoral intentions of Ukrainians in the end of September

Kyiv International Institute of Sociology held a regular nationwide opinion poll during the period of September 21 — October 1, 2012, according to the request and following the inventory of the Fund "Democratic Initiatives". 2043 respondents were interviewed; the survey covered all regions of Ukraine (including the city of Kyiv) and Crimea; sample was random and representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 years and older.

Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and a design-effect 1.5) does not exceed
3.3% for index close to 50%
2.8% — index close to 25%
2.0% — index close to 10%
1.4% — index close to 5%.

* * *

Party of Regions was the one to have the biggest number of supporters in the end of September. It got almost 19 percent of all votes in Ukraine.

Second place in the list of top supported parties was shared between party "UDAR (Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform)" headed by Vitaliy Klychko with its 13 percent of votes and Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Batkivschyna" with its 12 percent of supporters among all the voters of Ukraine (the difference between these percentages is statistically insignificant).

Communist Party of Ukraine had 8 percent of fans at the same time; the Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Svoboda" — 4 percent; the party "Ukraine, go ahead!" headed by Natalie Korolevska got about 2 percent and the party "Our Ukraine" — 1 percent of votes.

Each of the other 15 parties participating in the elections to the Parliament according to the system of party members list at the end of September gained less than 1% of supporters.

At the same time, 16 percent of voters decided not to participate in the elections and nearly 23 percent have not decided whether to participate and their political preference.

Thus, if the elections were held a month earlier, that is during our survey, nearly 39 percent of voters would not participate in the voting process, as we can see from the survey results.

The total number of voters in amount of 61 percent who were willing to participate in the elections (they have already decided whether to participate and whom to vote for), would be distributed between the parties according to their members lists as follows:

  • Party of Regions would receive 31 percent of all votes
  • Party "UDAR" headed by Vitaliy Klychko would get 21 percent
  • Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Batkivschyna" — 20 percent
  • Communist Party of Ukraine — 13 percent
  • Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Svoboda" — about 7 percent
  • Party "Ukraine, go ahead!" headed by Natalie Korolevska — about 3 percent
  • Party "Our Ukraine" — about 2 percent

As a result, the Parliament would include five parties: Party of Regions, Party "UDAR" headed by Vitaliy Klychko, Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Batkivschyna", Communist Party of Ukraine and Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Svoboda".

According to the data above, the ruling "coalition" would receive 44 percent of votes given for party lists, and the opposition — 48 percent (the difference between these figures is statistically significant). Other 8% of votes (about 2 million of voters who would participate in the elections) would only be distributed between the mentioned above five parties.

According to the data above current pro-governmental "coalition" would get according to their party members lists 107 seats, and the opposition — 118 seats.

What the part of voters to participate in the elections in the end of October will be, it is a question of time. But we know what is the correlation between similar data in the survey conducted a month before previous parliamentary elections in 2007. At that time the poll showed readiness to participate in the elections of at least 68% of respondents; but a month later only 62% of population actually voted.

What is the trend of changes today?

Six weeks before the survey, which we present today, a similar survey of the Fund "Democratic Initiatives" was conducted by Razumkov Centre. The sample consisting of 2,009 respondents with similar parameters as we have here, was interviewed by the same inventory by Razumkov Centre during the period of August 10–15, 2012.

Comparison of data of these two surveys makes us see that the number of people who are not ready to vote, did not decreased but rather increased by almost 9% over the past six weeks. It was 30% in mid-August and it is about 39% at the end of September. If this trend continues, unwillingness to vote may increase by 6% by the end of October. This would reduce the number of voters who are ready to vote, from 61% to 55%.

So far, the number of supporters of a Party UDAR headed by Vitaliy Klychko has statistically significantly increased from 9.7% to 13.2% during the period from mid-August to late September. And there is observed a statistically significant decrease of the number of followers of three parties:

  • Ukrainian Nationwide Coalescing "Batkivschyna" — from 20.2 to 12.1%
  • Party of Regions — from 23.5 to 18.8% and
  • Party "Ukraine, go ahead!" headed by Natalie Korolevska — from 3.4 to 1.6%.
 

The distribution of answers to the following question: “If you participate in the elections, which party would you support?” is as follows:

  % of all respondents % of those ready to vote
Mid-August Late September Mid-August Late September
Party of Regions 22.5 18.8 32.3 30.7
Political Party “UDAR” headed by Vitaliy Klychko 9.7 13.2 13.9 21.5
Political Party UNC “Batkivschyna” 20.2 12.1 29.0 19.8
Communist Party of Ukraine 6.8 8.2 9.7 13.3
Political Party UNC “Svoboda” 3.1 4.1 4.4 6.7
Party “Ukraine, go ahead!” headed by Natalie Korolevska 3.4 1.6 4.9 2.6
Political Party “Our Ukraine” 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.8
Political Party “Greens” 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.2
Party of Retirees of Ukraine 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.2
Radical Party headed by Oleg Liashko 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5
Socialistic Party of Ukraine 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4
Political Party Ukrainian Platform “Sobor” 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4
Political Party UNC “Gromada” 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3
I would vote for other 9 parties 1.7 0.9 2.4 1.7
I would not participate in the elections 14.1 16.1 -- --
Difficult to say 16.1 22.7 -- --
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

8.10.2012
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