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Socio-political moods of the population of Ukraine: the election of the President of Ukraine and current political events based on the results of a telephone survey conducted on October 15-18, 2021

 

During October 15-18, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile telephone numbers (with random generation of telephone numbers and subsequent statistical weighing) were interviewed 1,200 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea). The sample is representative for the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the survey was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.

Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 3.2% for indicators close to 50%, 2.7% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% - for indicators close to 12%, 1.4% - for indicators close to 5%.

           

In the press release, the results on the rating of presidential candidates are compared with two previous KIIS polls conducted by the method of telephone interviews: with the results of the KIIS "Omnibus" conducted on September 10-15, 2021 (the last published KIIS poll), and with the results of the poll  conducted on May 27-June 1, 2021 on a questionnaire similar to the current survey. When interpreting the dynamics, it is necessary to take into account the differences in the lists of candidates. In particular, the list in the "Omnibus" in September did not include D. Razumkov.

 

 

Rating of candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine

           

Table 1 shows the rating of candidates in the presidential election in the first round, if mentioned candidates participated in the election. V. Zelenskyi has relatively the most support: in case of participation in the elections of the candidates mentioned in the list, the incumbent President would receive 19.1% among all respondents, which is 24.7% among those who are going to vote and decided on the choice. In second place – P. Poroshenko, who would vote for 12.1% among all respondents and 15.6% among those who decided on the choice. In third place – Yu. Tymoshenko with indicators, respectively, 9.4% and 12.2%. Next are Yu. Boiko (7.3% and 9.4%), I. Smeshko (6% and 7.8%) and D. Razumkov (5.5% and 7.1%). Other candidates have lower support.

 

Table 1

If the election of the President of Ukraine took place next Sunday, for whom would you vote?

  May 27 - June1 September 10-15 October 15-18
100% in the column % among all (n=2000, error 2.4%) % among those who decided (n=1592, error 2.7%) % among all (n=2002, error 2.4%) % among those who decided (n=1527, error 2.8%) % among all (n=2000, error 3.2%)    % among those who   decided (n=970, error    3.5%)
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 21.8 27.3 25.4 33.3 19.1 24.7
Petro Poroshenko 11.7 14.6 12.8 16.8 12.1 15.6
Yuliia Tymoshenko 9.5 11.9 7.8 10.3 9.4 12.2
Yurii Boiko 7.3 9.2 7.2 9.5 7.3 9.4
Ihor Smeshko 7.6 9.5 6.6 8.7 6.0 7.8
Dmytro Razumkov 2.5 3.1 --- --- 5.5 7.1
Yevhenii Muraiev 4.6 5.7 4.9 6.4 4.8 6.2
Volodymyr Hroisman 3.7 4.6 4.4 5.7 4.1 5.3
Oleh Liashko 3.0 3.8 3.5 4.6 4.0 5.1
Victor Medvedchuk 3.4 4.3 --- --- 2.3 2.9
Oleh Tyahnybok 1.4 1.7 --- --- 1.0 1.3
Kira Rudyk 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8
Another candidate 2.8 3.6 3.6 4.7 1.2 1.5
Would not take part in the voting 10.0 --- 11.2 --- 8.6 ---
Difficult to say / refusal to answer / do not know 10.4 --- 12.6 --- 13.8 ---

 

 

 

Attitude to the resignation of Dmytro Razumkov from the post of Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

 

8% of respondents have a positive attitude to D. Razumkov's resignation, 39.1% have a negative attitude. Another 44.1% of respondents are indifferent to this issue.

 

           

 

Diagram 1

How do you feel about the resignation of the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Dmytro Razumkov from the position of the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada?

 

 

           

The majority of respondents - 57.2% - believe that D. Razumkov's resignation will not change anything. At the same time, 24.3% see this as a transformation of the parliament into an obedient tool of the Office of the President, while expect acceleration of reforms in the country – 6.6%. 

 

Diagram 2

In your opinion, the resignation of Verkhovna Rada Chairman Dmytro Razumkov will have the following consequences: … ?


 

Disruption of the special operation of the Ukrainian special services to detain Wagner's private army militants

 

51.5% of Ukrainians know about the disruption of special operation of Ukrainian special services to detain Wagner’s private army militants, although only 11.6% say they are well informed and 39.9% say they have only heard something but do not know the details.

 

           

Diagram 3

Did you know, have you heard, read or seen about the disruption of the special operation of the Ukrainian special services to detain militants from Wagner's Russian private army - "Wagnergate"?


 

 


Among the respondents, at least heard something, most respondents (39.5%) are responsible for the transfer (drain) of information by the top political leadership of Ukraine. Another 19.7% believe that this was due to lack of professionalism and mistakes of the top political leadership of Ukraine. Other options were chosen by fewer respondents.

 

Diagram 4

In your opinion, what is the main reason for the disruption of the special operation of the Ukrainian special services to detain militants from Wagner's Russian private army - "Wagnergate"? Choose only one answer.

(%among respondents who are fairly well informed or have heard something about the disruption of the special operation)


 

 


International Pandora Papers investigation

 

61.7% of Ukrainians know about the international Pandora Papers investigation, although only 13.8% say they are well enough informed and 47.9% say they have only heard something but do not know the details.

 

           

Diagram 5

Did you know, have you heard, read or seen about the international investigation of Pandora Papers, which revealed the secrets of offshore accounts of many politicians from around the world?


 

 


Herewith, for 77.1% of respondents it is unacceptable that the highest officials in the state and leading politicians have offshore accounts abroad. Believe that there is nothing wrong with that - 15.6%.

 

Diagram 6

Some people believe that it is unacceptable for the country's top officials and leading politicians to have offshore accounts abroad. Other people think there is nothing wrong with that. What do you think?


 

 

 


However, regardless of whether or not the respondents knew about the investigation before the interview, 56.9% of respondents believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyi and his business partners have offshore accounts abroad, and Ihor Kolomoiskyi allegedly withdrew funds from PrivatBank, including through the "95 kvartal". 22.6% of respondents do not believe in it.

 

Diagram 7

Do you believe or not believe the international investigation of Pandora Papers, according to which Volodymyr Zelenskyi and his business partners have offshore accounts abroad, and Ihor Kolomoiskyi allegedly withdrew funds from PrivatBank, including through the "95 kvartal"?


 

 

 


Diagram 8 shows the data depending on how informed the respondents are (according to them) about this investigation. Among those who "hear for the first time", 42.3% believe about the involvement of V. Zelenskyi / "95 kvartal" in offshore accounts and withdrawals (do not believe - 29.4%). At the same time, among the well-informed 85.4% believe (11.6% do not believe), and among those who have heard only a little - 60.8% (do not believe – 20.3%).

 

Diagram 8

Do you believe or not believe the international investigation of Pandora Papers, according to which Volodymyr Zelenskyi and his business partners have offshore accounts abroad, and Ihor Kolomoiskyi allegedly withdrew funds from PrivatBank, including through the "95 kvartal"?

(% among respondents depending on the level of awareness)


 


Direction of affairs in Ukraine

 

The majority of respondents - 61.7% - believe that affairs in Ukraine are moving in the wrong direction. 22.7% speak about the right direction.

 

           

Diagram 9

In general, in your opinion, events in Ukraine are moving in the right or wrong direction?


 


Comment by Anton Hrushetskyi: Analyzing the results obtained, especially the rating of candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine, it should be borne in mind that, first, the poll was conducted by telephone interviews. We have repeatedly drawn the attention of the expert community to the fact that the research method affects the results. Respondents interviewed by personal interviews are more affluent, have a slightly higher level of education, and are slightly more active than respondents interviewed by the method of telephone interviews. As a result, it may affect the ratings of individual political entities. However, due to the lack of a census, there is no reliable data on the share of people with higher education, etc., which would allow us to understand which of the methods is more accurate. Some experiments in 2019 showed that survey by the method of personal interviews was more accurate, but now, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors, the situation could change.

Secondly, if to analyze the dynamics of support for candidates in the recent period, it is worth noting that V. Zelenskyi is still in the lead, and P. Poroshenko is in second place, and Yu. Tymoshenko is in third place. At the same time, V. Zelenskyi's rating is noticeably lower compared to the September KIIS poll, although this may be largely due to the fact that D. Razumkov was not on the list of candidates in September. Although even if we compare the support of V. Zelenskyi now with the support in May (with more comparable lists), then there is a tendency to its reduction. The reasons for such dynamics may be different, and this requires additional specialized researches. However, we can assume a certain exhaustion of the potential of the National Security and Defense Council's decisions (in terms of maintaining support), and at the same time the negative impact of certain political events (Wagnergate, Pandora Papers, D. Razumkov's resignation) together with economic issues (discussion of utility tariffs).

 At the same time, support for D. Razumkov has increased since May (although it is worth noting that sufficient media attention has been paid to D. Razumkov so far, which could contribute to the growth of the rating, and the issue of his media presence is important in the future). Support for P. Poroshenko, Yu. Tymoshenko, and Yu. Boiko is at about the same level, and support for I. Smeshko has declined somewhat.

 


19.10.2021
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