Despite the hype in the media, 95% of Kiev citizens believe that doomsday will not come this Friday, and 30% - that it will not come ever.

Kyiv International Institute of Sociology conducted a public opinion poll among residents of Kyiv from November 28 to December 9. 1005 respondents aged over 18 were interviewed by CATI - computer-assisted telephone interviewing (personal phone interview). The sample is representative for the adult population of Kyiv by sex and age, territorial and administrative structures. Statistical sampling error with a probability of 0.95 is less than 3.2% for index close to 50%, 2.7% - index close to 25%, 1.9% - index close to 10%, 1.4% - index close to 5%, 0.6 % - index close to 1%.

Capital Residents Are Optimistic

The vast majority of residents of the capital confirmed that they were aware that according to the Mayan calendar December 21st may become the end of the world - 98% of respondents were aware of this fact, and only 2% of respondents did not know. Among those who do not know about apocalyptic prophecy retirees make up approximately the same quantity as those who work; while among those who know about this happening there are 25% of retirees and 57% of employees. It is likely that this "hot topic" has left mass media area long ago and is now actively spread through social networks with the real word of mouth. Also, the number of people with average income is much bigger among those who have heard about the "December 21st" than among those who had not.

While residents of the capital are aware of the possible end of the world, it appeared that only a very small part of Kiev ctizens believes that it does happen - only 5% of respondents (2% definitely believe and 3% rather believe). Instead, the vast majority - 92% of Kiev citizens believe that the Mayan prophecy will not come true (18% - rather do not believe, and 74% - definitely do not believe in the possibility of the end of the world). Another 3% found it difficult to answer this question. Among those who definitely believe in the end of the world to happen this year the smallest part is employees (47%) and the largest - retirees (35%), if compared with the corresponding shares in the other groups. Also it was found that the higher the education level is, the more people hesitate whether to believe or not to believe in the Mayan prophecy: among those who were unable to answer this question, 20% of people have completed secondary education, 30% - vocational secondary education and 50% - higher. In general, the proportion of people with higher education among both groups – believers and not-believers – constitutes about 60%, ranging from 59% in the group who clearly believes, to 66% among those who clearly does not believe in Mayan prophecy (difference is not statistically significant).

We also asked respondents whether they suggest that the end of the world may still occur, but not exactly on the day that the Mayan calendar is interrupted on, but on some other day during their lives or not. Thus, it was found that 44% of Kiev citizenssuppose that the end of the world might happen anyway, with 7% of respondents believing that it might happen during their lifetime and another 37% of respondents believing that doomsday will come, but not during their lifetime. A third part of respondents are sure that the world is not threatened by any of prophecy and its end will not come ever. A little less than a third part found it difficult to answer this question. Moreover, there are more people with average income among those who believe that the end of the world will never come than among those who suggest that the end of the world might come including during their lifetime: 49% vs. 36% (the differences are statistically significant at the 5 %).

The question of possible preparation for December 21 caused the greatest skepticism among Kiev citizens. 93% of respondents assured us that they do not believe in nonsense and do nothing to prepare themselves for the  "doomsday". Only some of respondents play a safe game buying candles (2%), prepare themselves spiritually - go to church (1.5%), store food and essential goods or spend more time with family and friends (1%). Only few people noted that they save money or look for stocking or storage tank to spend December 21 there (less than 1%). 

Do you prepare yourself for the possible end of the world on December 21^st? If you do, what do you do? (% of all interviewed)

Other answers to the question of preparation for possible doomsday among Kiev citizens’ answers stated: "I have an ax", "I have kerosene lamp," "I gather warm clothes", "I’ve written a will", "I monitor public opinion", "I want to be prepared, but my husband does not believe so we do not prepare", "I’ll cover the table", "I’ll call friends to spend the night somewhere, because our house is too old", "I watch all the movies I have not seen before". Some are going to go out of the city to spend the day outdoors.

Confidence On 21 December In The World

Six months ago, in May 2012, a research company Ipsos carried out a worldwide survey of population’s attitude toward the possible end of the world on December 21 for Reuters News Agency. A total of 16,262 residents from 21 countries were interviewed. The results of this survey state that about 14% of respondents believe that the end of the world may come during their lifetime, 10% believe that the end of the Mayan calendar marks the end of the world, and 8% of respondents experience anxiety or fear due to the fact that the world is likely to come to its end on December 21. Moreover, confidence in the prophecies of the Mayan varies in different countries.

Kiev citizens’ moods are similar in this respect to the ones of Germans (six months old results): only 5% of residents of Kiev and 4% of Germans believe that the end of the world will happen on December 21, 2012. 

The share of those who believe that December 21 being the end of the Mayan calendar marks the end of the world (% by country)

Comments By Daria Pirogov, Sociologist At KIIS

On the contrary to common belief that people with higher levels of education tend to believe less in the prophecy, astrology and other paranormal things, it is really typical for representatives of different educational levels. People tend to search for or interpret information that would confirm their existing beliefs; and tend to ignore or incorrectly interpret evidences which would refute their existings beliefs. Incompleteness or uncertain accuracy of the information about the Mayan prophecy and the possible end of the world, received by people, can be fully compensated by the power of suggestion that media and other communication channels have.

It is hard to disagree that this year December 21 has clearly become a red date in the winter festive and consumer calendar; but our survey data show that the level of critical thinking of Kiev citizens is quite high, and the level of confidence in the media hoaxes is low. This fact makes sociologists happy. 

To get more information please contact Daria Pirogov (KIIS)

Tel. : +38 (044) 537-3376. 

e-mail: d.pyrogova@kiis.com.ua  

TABLE 1. Have you heard that the December 21, 2012 is going to be a day of the end of the world according to the Mayan calendar? (% of those who have heard or have not heard)

TABLE 2. Do you believe that doomsday will come on December 21, 2012? (% of those who do believe or do not believe)

TABLE 3. How do you think when the end of the world may come? (% of those who do believe or do not believe that the end of the world may occur)