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Electoral mood of the population of Ukraine in March 2013

Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a nationwide opinion poll following the request of the fund "Democratic Initiatives" during the period of March 6–12, 2013.

The survey was held in 109 locations (PSU) in all regions of Ukraine and Crimea. 2037 respondents were interviewed; sample was random with quota selection at the last stage$ sample was representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 years and older.

Error calculations for quota sampling are irrelevant; but if we had a completely random sample of the same size, the statistical error (with a probability of 0.95 and a design-effect of 1.5) would not exceed:
3.3% for index close to 50%
2.8% — index close to 25%
2.0% — index close to 10%
1.4% — index close to 5%.

 

 

Below you can see the distribution of the answers to the following question: "If pre-scheduled elections of the President of Ukraine were assigned, for whom would you vote?", provided that the list of candidates include the name of Yulia Tymoshenko:

  Percentage of all citizens aged 18 and older Percentage of those ready to participate in the elections
Viktor Yanukovych 21.2 31.4
Vitaliy Klychko 14.4 21.4
Yuliya Tymoshenko 11.4 17.0
Arseniy Yatseniuk 7.1 10.6
Oleg Tyagnibok 5.4 8.1
Peter Symonenko 5.0 7.5
Anatoliy Grytsenko 1.4 2.1
Nataliya Korolevska 0.6 1.0
Other 0.7 1.1
Difficult to say 17.3 -
I will not participate in the elections 15.4 -
TOTAL 100.0 100.0

 

That is, if there were scheduled early elections with the defined above conditions at the beginning of March 2013, 67% of population would participate in the first stage of the elections (the same we had in the first stage of the previous presidential elections). And the leaders with quantity of votes enough to continue to the second stage of the elections would be:

  • Viktor Yanukovych — about 31% of votes
  • Vitaliy Klychko — 21% of votes.

Distribution of answers to the question "If the second stage of presidential elections contained Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych, for whom would you vote?" is as follows:

  Percentage of all citizens aged 18 and older Percentage of those ready to participate in the elections
Yuliya Tymoshenko 29.4 50.7
Viktor Yanukovych 28.6 49.3
I would not participate in the elections 26.1  
Difficult to say 15.9  
TOTAL 100 100

 

That is, the second stage of voting for the candidates Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych would be attended by about 58% of voters and elections results would be as follows:

  • Yulia Tymoshenko could get about 51% of votes
  • Viktor Yanukovych — about 49% of votes.

Distribution of answers to the question “And if it happens that Yulia Tymoshenko would not participate in the elections whom would you vote for then?” is as follows:

  Percentage of all citizens aged 18 and older Percentage of those ready to participate in the elections
Viktor Yanukovych 21.2 32.8
Vitaliy Klychko 15.6 24.2
Arseniy Yatseniuk 12.4 19.1
Oleg Tyagnibok 6.7 10.4
Peter Symonenko 5.2 8.1
Anatoliy Grytsenko 1.7 2.7
Nataliya Korolevska 0.9 1.4
Other 0.8 1.3
Difficult to say 19.1  
I will not participate in the elections 16.3  
TOTAL 100.0 100

 

That is, if there were scheduled early elections with the defined above conditions at the beginning of March 2013, 65% of population would participate in the first stage of the elections. And the leaders with quantity of votes enough to continue to the second stage of the elections would be: Viktor Yanukovych (with 33% of votes) and Vitaliy Klytschko — from 24% votes.

Distribution of answers to the question "If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Vitaliy Klychko, for whom would you vote?" is as follows:

  Percentage of all citizens aged 18 and older Percentage of those ready to participate in the elections
Vitaliy Klychko 39.3 60.5
Viktor Yanulovych 25.7 39.5
I would not participate in the elections 20.8  
Difficult to say 14.2  
TOTAL 100 100

 

That is, the second stage of voting for the candidates Viktor Yanukovych and Vitaliy Klychko would be attended by about 65% of voters and elections results would be as follows:

  • Vitaliy Klychko could get about 60% of votes
  • Viktor Yanukovych — about 40% of votes.

Distribution of answers to the question "If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Arseniy Yatseniuk, for whom would you vote?" is as follows:

  Percentage of all citizens aged 18 and older Percentage of those ready to participate in the elections
Arseniy Yatseniuk 33.7 54.5
Viktor Yanukovych 28.1 45.5
I would not participate in the elections 24  
Difficult to say 14.2  
TOTAL 100 100

 

Distribution of answers to the question "If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Oleg Tyagnybok, for whom would you vote?" is as follows:

  Percentage of all citizens aged 18 and older Percentage of those ready to participate in the elections
Oleg Tyagnibok 26.1 47.0
Viktor Yanukovych 29.4 53.0
I would not participate in the elections 25.9  
Difficult to say 18.6  
TOTAL 100 100

 

Regional distribution of supporters of these four candidates among population of Ukraine aged 18 and older looks as follows1:

 

If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Vitaliy Klychko, for whom would you vote?

    Vitaliy Klychko Viktor Yanukovych I would not participate in the elections Difficult to say TOTAL
Macroregions West 66 10 13 11 100
  Central 50 15 19 15 100
  South 26 33 23 18 100
  East 14 47 29 11 100
TOTAL   39.3 25.7 20.8 14.2 100

 

If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Arseniy Yatseniuk, for whom would you vote?

    Arseniy Yatseniuk Viktor Yanukovych I would not participate in the elections Difficult to say TOTAL
Macroregions West 57 12 18 12 100
  Central 46 17 19 18 100
  South 20 36 27 16 100
  East 10 49 33 9 100
TOTAL   34 28 24 14 100

 

If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Oleg Tyagnybok, for whom would you vote?"

    Oleg Tyagnybok Viktor Yanukovych I would not participate in the elections Difficult to say TOTAL
Macroregions West 49 13 17 20 100
  Central 35 16 25 24 100
  South 14 40 29 18 100
  East 7 50 33 11 100
TOTAL   26 29 26 19 100

 

Percent distribution of votes of population of Ukraine aged 18 and older between the beforementioned four candidates looks as follows:

 

If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Vitaliy Klychko, for whom would you vote?

    ³òàë³ÿ Êëè÷êà Viktor Yanukovych I would not participate in the elections Difficult to say TOTAL
Age (4 groups) 18–29 43 21 24 12 100
  30–44 40 23 21 16 100
  45–59 41 28 19 12 100
  60+ 34 31 19 16 100
TOTAL   39.3 25.7 20.8 14.2 100
  Difference 13.6        

 

If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Arseniy Yatseniuk, for whom would you vote?

    Arseniy Yatseniuk Viktor Yanukovych I would not participate in the elections Difficult to say TOTAL
Age (4 groups) 18–29 31 24 30 15 100
  30–44 33 26 25 17 100
  45–59 37 29 23 11 100
  60+ 34 33 19 14 100
TOTAL   33.7 28.1 24.0 14.2 100.0
  Difference 5.7        

 

If the second stage of presidential elections contained Viktor Yanukovych and Oleg Tyagnybok, for whom would you vote?"

    Oleg Tyagnybok Viktor Yanukovych I would not participate in the elections Difficult to say TOTAL
Age (4 groups) 18–29 25 26 31 19 100
  30–44 24 27 27 22 100
  45–59 30 29 25 16 100
  60+ 26 35 22 17 100
TOTAL   26 29 26 19 100

 


1 West: Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky, Transcarpathian and Chernivtsi (22% of voters); Central Region: Zhitomir, Vinnitsa, Kirovograd, Cherkassy, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv region and the city of Kyiv (30% of voters); South: Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhya and Crimea (26% of voters); East: Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk (22% of voters).

15.3.2013
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