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Electoral intentions of voters of Ukraine in late May

Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) studied public opinion of Ukrainians during the period of May 21–30, 2013. 2030 respondents were interviewed; the investigation covered all regions of Ukraine, including Kiev and Crimea Region; the sample was random and is deemed to be representative for population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

The below data on the electoral intentions of voters was obtained by expense of KIIS.

Statistical sample deviation (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed:
3.3% for index close to 50%,
2,8% — for index close to 25%,
2,0% — for index close to 10%,
1,4% — for index close to 5%.

If presidential elections were held in late May 2013, and the ballot would include Vitali Klitschko, Peter Simonenko, Oleg Tyagnibok, Viktor Yanukovych and Arseniy Yatsenyuk, we would have following distribution of votes among citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above:
  • Vitali Klitschko — 16%
  • Viktor Yanukovych — 14%
  • Arseniy Yatsenyuk — 10%
  • Oleg Tiagnybok — 6%
  • Peter Symonenko — 4%

Vitali Klitschko has increased his electoral support in comparison with June 2012 — 7%; and Oleg Tiagnybok did the same — 3%.

During the same period electoral support of Viktor Yanukovych has decreased by 3%, Arseniy Yatsenyuk — by 2% and Peter Symonenko — by 1%.

As of regional distribution1:

  • Electoral support of Vitali Klitschko is concentrated in the Central and Western regions (23% in each). 10% of inhabitants of the Southern region would vote for him, and in the East the percentage constitutes 6%.
  • Electoral support of Viktor Yanukovych is still concentrated in the East (26%) and South (21%). In the Central Region he is supported by 7% of the population and in the West — by 5%.
  • Arseniy Yatsenyuk is supported by 18% of the population in Western region, by 12% — in the Central, by 5% and 4% in the South and East.
  • Oleg Tiagnybok is supported by 12% of the inhabitants of the Western region, by 8% — in the Central area, by 2% and 1% in the Eastern andSouthern regions.
  • Peter Symonenko is mostly popular in the South (6%) and East (5%). In the Central region he is supported by more than 2% of the population, and in the West — by less than 2%.

 

Application


Our question about the presidential elections in Ukraine was designed as follows:

If the next Sunday were a day of pre-scheduled presidential elections in Ukraine, would you participate in voting? If "yes", who would you vote for if the candidates list included following names?

Percentage distribution of answers to the question above is following

  Ukraine in General Macroregions
West Central South East
Vitali Klitschko 15.9 22.5 23.4 9.8 5.8
Peter Symonenko 3.7 1.6 2.3 5.9 5.1
Oleg Tyagnibok 5.8 12.1 8.1 1.1 2.1
Viktor Yanukovych 14.3 5.4 7.2 20.6 25.5
Arseniy Yatseniuk 9.5 17.6 12.0 4.8 3.5
Other 3.3 4.5 3.8 3.5 1.4
Against everyone 18.1 10.0 12.4 25.2 25.7
I will not participate in the elections 13.5 11.2 13.8 13.4 15.9
Difficult to say 15.8 15.2 17.0 15.7 15.0
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100

 


1 West: Volynskiy Region, Rivnenskiy Region, Lvivskiy Region, Ivano-Frankivskiy Region, Ternopilskiy Region, Transcarpathianskiy Region, Khmelnytsky Region, Chernivetskiy Region. Central: Vinnytskiy Region, Zhytomyrskiy Region, Sumskiy Region, Chernihivskiy Region, Poltavskiy Region, Kirovohradskiy Region, Cherkaskiy Region, Kyiv Region, Kyiv. South: Dnipropetrovskiy Region, Zaporizhskiy Region, Mykolaivskiy Region, Khersonskiy Region, Odesskiy Region, Crimea (including Sevastopol). East: Donetskiy Region, Luhanskiy Region, Kharkivskiy Region.

17.6.2013
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