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Dynamics of the Ukrainians attitudes towards sociological opinion polls, November 2013

On November 9 – 20, 2013 Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own public opinion survey. Data was collected from 2011 respondents, living in all regions of Ukraine (including Kyiv) and Crimea, through the method of personal interview. Sample was random and representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

Statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed:
3.3% — for indicators close to 50%;
2,8% — for indicators close to 25%;
2,0% — for indicators close to 10%;
1,4% — for indicators close to 5%.

 

Questions about the attitude of the population of Ukraine to the results of opinion polls was asked in 2002, 2004, 2009 and 2012. In the survey in November 2013, respondents also expressed their views about the opinion polls.

 

The survey showed that:

  • Level of confidence in the results of opinion polls held by organizations, which conduct surveys and publish their results for a long time already, among the population of Ukraine for 11 years first significantly increased from 36% in 2002 to 47% in 2004, and then remained stable at approximately the same level of fluctuations in within sampling error (a slight increase to 51% was only in 2012, probably, because the study was conducted immediately after the parliamentary election in which the data of all exit polls and of elections were close to each other). Now (November 2013) the credibility of opinion polls is about 46%.

 

  • This year trust level is not statistically different from the trust levels in 2004 and 2009, but it has gone down a little comparing to 2012: from 51% to 46% (difference is statistically significant). Amount of those, who doubt and do not trust sociological opinion polls has increased instead: from 34% to 37% and from 13% to 15% respectively (difference is insignificant).
  • BY GENDER: women (48%) trust sociological surveys more than men (43%); 18% of men and 13% of women do not trust the results of polls.

  • BY AGE: the highest trust rate was found among the youngest age group (50%), and the oldest age group – 60-69 years (49%). The lowest trust rate is amongst the age group of 50-59 (41%).

  • BY REGIONS: all four regions have closely the same trust rate – 45-47% (there are no significant differences between the regions), but the amount of those, who does not trust, is bigger in Eastern region – 21% (comparing to 12-14% in other regions).

  • The balance of trust and mistrust to sociological centers (the percentage of those, who trust, minus the percentage of those, who do not) is +31% (46% minus 15%).

 

Comment of Daryna Pirohova, project coordinator in KIIS

                                                                                                                  

Despite the fact, that the level of confidence in sociological polls decreased a little during the year, the Ukrainians still trust sociologists more, than mistrust. It means that the balance of trust and mistrust is positive.  Let`s remind the balances of trust and mistrust in some institutions, calculated by KIIS in 2012.

 

  Trust Do not trust Balance of trust-mistrust
Church 61.7 17.0 44.7
Media 40.5 28.3 12.2
Non-governmental organizations 27.1 29.4 -2.4
Armed Forces of Ukraine 34.3 36.6 -2.4
Opposition 24.0 52.6 -28.6
President of Ukraine 21.9 65.9 -44.0
Police 15.5 62.9 -47.4
Government of Ukraine 16.1 68.8 -52.7
Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine 12.0 73.4 -61.4

 

In 2013, we did not measure the level of trust in social institutions, but the data of our colleagues suggest that the situation has not changed. Thus, we can conclude that sociologists are trusted less than the church, but more than the media and all other social institutions.

 

Addition

 

By years:

Doyoutrusttheresultsofsociologicalpolls, heldbyorganizationswhichconductsurveysandpublishresultsforalongtimealready? % ofrespondents
  2002 2004 2009 2012 2013
Yes 36 47 45 51 46
Difficult to say 32 37 35 34 37
No 29 13 14 13 15
Refusal from responding 3 3 6 2 2

 

By gender:

Doyoutrusttheresultsofsociologicalpolls, heldbyorganizationswhichconductsurveysandpublishresultsforalongtimealready? % ofrespondents
  Men Women  
Yes 43 48  
Difficult to say 37 37  
No 18 13  
Refusal from responding 2 2  

 

By age:

Doyoutrusttheresultsofsociologicalpolls, heldbyorganizationswhichconductsurveysandpublishresultsforalongtimealready? % ofrespondents
  18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70 +
Yes 50 44 45 41 49 44
Difficult to say 35 35 39 39 36 40
No 14 17 14 17 14 16
Refusal from responding 1 4 1 3 2 0

 

By regions:

Doyoutrusttheresultsofsociologicalpolls, heldbyorganizationswhichconductsurveysandpublishresultsforalongtimealready? % ofrespondents
  Western Central Southern Eastern
Yes 45 45 47 46
Difficult to say 37 39 40 31
No 14 14 12 21
Refusal from responding 3 1 1 2

 


23.12.2013
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