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From Maidan camp to Maidan-sich: what has changed?

February 3, 2014, on Monday, the Fund "Democratic initiatives of Ilko Kucheriv "with the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology conducted a survey regarding Maidan. 502 persons were interviewed in all fixed points of Maidan (tents, building of Trade Unions, building of Kiev State Administration, October Palace, Ukrainian House etc.) with a sample that ensures proportional coverage of Maidan. The survey was conducted by funding of the International Fund "Renaissance".

This is the third survey of Maidan participants. The first was conducted by the Fund "Democratic initiatives of Ilko Kucheriv" and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology at the weekend - 7 (Saturday) and 8 (Sunday) December 2013. 1037 respondents were interviewed (375 - December 7 and 662 - 8 December)with the method, which provides a random sample of Maidan participants. It was crowded Maidan meeting.

The second survey on Maidan – of a stationary camp (Camp of Maidan) was conducted by the "Democratic Initiatives of Ilko Kucheriv" and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on December 20, 2013, on Friday. 515 people were interviewed, with a sample representing all stationary points of the square.

Since the survey on Maidan camp have passed one and a half months. During this time there were tough opposition protesters and security forces - beatings, repression, disappearances, and after the adoption of the infamous law of 16 January - real bloody fighting in Hrushevskoho Street and the first casualties. Maidan has been changed outside – barricades were built, stiffened in constant expectation of attack became more closed. Maidan camp was turned into a Maidan-Sich.

What changes have taken place with a population of Maidan? How has changed the social and demographic structure? Have the views and requirements changed of this much more militarized people? This we have tried to figure out in our survey.

So, what is common and what is different in the two stages of stationary Maidan - "Maidan camp" and "Maidan-Sich?”

  • There are still the absolute superiority of the male population on Maidan-Sich, and it has become even greater: 88% - men, 12% - women. The age composition has not been changed: the average age of the inhabitants of Maidan-Sich is 37 years (33% aged 18 to 29 years, 56% - 30-54 years, 12% - 55 years and older). There become a bit less people with no higher education than people with higher education, had been 49% and become 43% (but anyway this percentage is higher than the national average), 43% - with secondary general and vocational education, 9.5% - incomplete and 4% higher - with incomplete secondary.

  • The occupation in modern Maidan-Sich is quite different. There are still present a lot of specialists with higher education - 27% (it used to be 22%), significantly added businesses (17% and was 12%), still represented workers (15 %) was slightly less students (from 10% to 6%) and seniors (from 11% to 7%). As it used to be before, there are directors (4%) on Maidan-Sich, and law enforcement, military (3%), employees (4%), agricultural workers, farmers (3%). Of course, there are those who do not have a permanent job (13%, of which 4.5% work part time in different places, and 7.5% have no source of income).

  • On the steady Maidan-Sich there is still clearly domination of visitants (88%, used to be - 81%), Kiev - to 12%. Among visitors dominated the inhabitants of Western Ukraine (55%, was - 42%), the rest - Central Ukraine (24%) and the East and South (21%). Significant changes have occurred in the prevailing type of settlements from where people came to Maidan: residents of regional centers decreased (from 32% to 20%) and cities (from 23% to 17%), but significantly added in representing the residents of small towns (23% to 42%). The village is still represented by 20% of the population on Maidan-Sich.

  • The language of usage slightly increased in the number of Ukrainian - from 52% to 59%, while the percentage of Russian speakers decreased (from 20% to 16%) and those used to communicate in both languages (from 28% to 24%).

  • There are even less residents in the current Maidan-Sich who were brought organized bypolitical parties (it was 12%, now - 3%), social organizations and movements protesters brought 13%, and the remaining 83.5% came to Maidan-Sich by their own initiative. There are less inhabitants in the structure of Maidan-Sich from the party members (was 15%, was 8%), members of NGOs remained the same - 8%, while those belonging to social movements became much more - 14% (it was 6% ). Perhaps this is due to the fact that the various social movements arise directly on Maidan and people has joined them. However, 70% of Maidan people still do not belong to any association.

  • The motives of people to come to Maidan and to stay there, remained the same as before: in the first place - the brutal repression against protesters (61%), also there is a second, a common motif - "desire to change a life in Ukraine "(51%, was - 36%), there are also still weighty reasons of protests against Viktor Yanukovych refusal to sign Association Agreement with the European Union (47%) and the desire to change the government in Ukraine (46%). only 3% of people responded to opposition calls to revenge authorities for all committing does not exceed stable 10%. The number of people who are insecure that Ukraine may join Customs Union and generally return to Russia significantly increased (from 14% to 20%).

  • During Maidan there have been more clearly focused basic requirements that protesters believe to be the main:  Viktor Yanukovych's resignation and early presidential re-elections (85%, increased for 20%) and the release of arrested members of Maidan, end the repression (82%, increased for 20%). The remaining requirements are also important, but still less: the resignation of the government (68%), in criminal cases guilty for beating protesters (64%), dissolution of the parliament and calling for early parliamentary re-elections (59%), changing the Constitution to return to constitutional reform of 2004, which limited the government of the president (62.5%), the creation of criminal cases for all who was involved in corruption (62%), the Association Agreement with the European Union (49%), the release of Yulia Tymoshenko (30%).

  • Survey participants were offered the following three basic minimum requirements, the implementation of which may be the compromise between government and protestants that can meet Maidan. Clearly there are two requirements: Viktor Yanukovych's resignation and early presidential re-elections (68% - an increase of 36%) and the release of arrested members of Maidan, end the repression (51%, an increase of 20%). All remaining claims, compared with these, are clearly of secondary importance.

  • Participants of present Maidan are much less likely to support the negotiation process with the government, even one and a half months ago, opinions were divided almost in half: 45% supported the need for negotiations, 47% - no. Now only 27% believe that negotiations with the government are reallyneeded, and 63% of respondents are opposed any negotiations.

  • The amnesty law was perceived negatively on Maidan as well. Only 4% are ready for rapid release of prisoners leave the building administration and unblock Hrushevskoho Street and 83% believe that the government should release those arrested without any additional conditions and demand the immediate release of protesters.

  • Only 1% of protesters appreciates the opposition leaders to lead the government. Another 6% believe that they can only agree to form a government with wholly opposition, another 22% - in the event of a return to the Constitution of 2004 and strengthen the role of the prime minister and government. However, the majority - 62% - said that while the president is Viktor Yanukovych it is better not to take part in the government at all.

  • Only 17% believe that it is necessary to provide Viktor Yanukovych guarantees of personal safety and property if he agrees to early presidential re-elections, 78% answered: "No guarantee!"

  • As before, the vast majority of Maidan (86%) are ready to stay on Maidan "as long as necessary". In fact, 73% of them came to Maidan last year, and 24% are there since the start, 21-30 November. To encourage people to leave Maidan is possible if meet all requirements that have been put forward there. Such position occupied by 83% (previously it was 64%), another 12% are willing to settle for several key performance requirements (was 25%), and only 1% said it would be enough to fulfill anything.

  • For the last 1,5 month increased the number of Maidan participants, who are ready to resort to radical methods of protest, boycotts, refusal to comply with the decision of the authorities (from 31% to 40%), to unauthorized rallies and demonstrations (from 28% to 45%), strikes (with 32% to 47%), pickets government agencies (from 38% to 56%), captures buildings (from 19% to 41%), the creation of independent from the government armed groups (from 21% to 50%).

Overall, second survey of Maidan participants showed that the government for the last six weeks of repressive policy has reached a significant radicalization of Maidan, its transformation from Maidan camp to Maidan- Sich. The demand of President resignation and presidential re-elections was the main. Obviously, the first and foremost requirement of Maidan is the latest concession, which can accept Victor Yanukovych - the only negotiator who really decides. Maidan does not satisfy the opposition in the government under President Yanukovych. Maidan is in the most part against negotiations. The situation complicates the fact that the opposition, which leads the negotiating, is not managed by Maidan, which has grown largely spontaneously and has no clear vertical structure. Determination of Maidan participants, most of whom stood the test of frost, "stand till the end " (and most of them are on Maidan since last year) does not give reason to hope that somehow Maidan itself "melt like snow in the spring." And attempts to overlock  Maidan by force aparently exposed to the same force resistance. 

Results of the survey

 What has promote you to come to Maidan? (choose not more than 3 causes)

  Maidan-meeting Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
Refusal of Viktor Yanukovych to sign an Association Agreement with the European Union 53,5 40 47.0
Violent repression against protesters 69,6 69 61.3
Calls of opposition leaders 5,4 6,7 2.8
The desire to change the government in the country 39,1 38,9 45.6
The desire to change the life in Ukraine 49,9 36,2 51.1
Solidarity with friends, colleagues and relatives also are on Maidan 6,2 4,1 3.7
Collapsing of democracy, the threat of dictatorship 18,9 13,7 17.5
It is interesting and funny on Maidan 2,2 1,2 0.4
The desire to take revenge on the government for everything that has been committed in the country 5,2 9,6 9.8
The danger that Ukraine joins the Customs Union and generally returns to Russia 16,9 14,4 20.0
The money I have been paid (or was promised to get paid)   0,3 0,2 0.0
Other (what?) 3,3 8,2 4.6
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY 0,5 0 0

 

What requirements do you suuport (those made on Maidan)? (mark all the requirements that are important for you)

  Maidan-meeting Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
The release of the arrested members of the Maidan, end of the repression 81,8 63,9 82.2
Signing an Association Agreement with the European Union 71.0 58,6 49.0
The dismissal of the government 80,1 74,5 68.2
Initiation of an investigation on those guilty for beating protesters on Maidan 57,6 50,7 63.7
The dissmissal of the Parliament and calling for early parliamentary re-elections 55,6 51,4 59.1
Release of Yulia Tymoshenko 37,8 36 30.4
Viktor Yanukovych's resignation and early presidential re-elections 75,1 65,7 85.2
Change the Constitution, to return to constitutional reform of 2004, which limited the government of the president 37,9 42,8 62.5
Violation of criminal cases at all who was involved in corruption 49,6 42,8 62.1
The general increase of living standards 46,9 42,5 41.1
Other (what?) 3,4 6,7 1.6
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY 0 0 0

 

 Performing of what major requirements could be the compromise with government that can meet Maidan? Mark not more than 3 the most important

  Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
The release of the arrested members of the Maidan, end of the repression 31,5 51.1
Signing an Association Agreement with the European Union 28,2 17.3
The dismissal of the government 55 28.0
Initiation of an investigation on those guilty for beating protesters on Maidan 11,5 23.6
The dissmissal of the Parliament and calling for early parliamentary re-elections 20,9 24.4
Release of Yulia Tymoshenko 12,8 4.6
Viktor Yanukovych's resignation and early presidential re-elections 32,8 68.2
Change the Constitution, to return to constitutional reform of 2004, which limited the government of the president 7,3 25.6
Violation of criminal cases at all who was involved in corruption 4 16.7
The general increase of living standards 5,2 7.2
Other (what?) 3,6 0.7
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY 2 0

 

Do you agree with the proposal of the Round Table negotiations by the authorities, opposition and civic leaders brokered by international organizations?

  Maidan-meeting Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
Yes, these negotiations are needed 51,3 45,3 27.4
No negotiations with the government needed 41,5 46,6 63.1
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY 7,2 8,2 9.6

 

 What might encourage you to leave Maidan? (choose not more than 3 answer)

  Maidan-meeting Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
Performance of all requirements that have been put forward on Maidan 73,9 63,6 82.7
Performance of few the most important requirements 28,5 24,8 11.7
Performance of any requirement 5,8 6,3 1.0
Objective reasons that do not allow to stand on Maidanindefinitely (job, studying) 16,5 4,5 3.6
Fatigue, malaise 13 3,7 1.8
Disappointment in leaders 7,5 5,5 1.7
Coldness 2,3 1 0.6
The disappointment in the ability of people to change anything 4,4 1,5 1.4
Repressions against protestants 5,8 2,1 0.8
If my friend and acquaint ants leave Maidan 1,7 1 1.1
If the majority of  Maidan inhabitant decide to leave organized 12,8 9,8 9.5
Other (what?) 2,3 5,1 2.2
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY 0,5 1,3 0.3

 

In what actions of social protestyou personally would be willing to participate? (mark all acceptable answers)

  Maidan-meeting Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
Participation in the election campaign 51,4 37,8 54.9
Petitions for collective appeals (claims, appeals) 37,2 30 42.4
Authorized meetings and demonstrations 70,7 51,8 56.3
The threat of strike 28,6 27 39.3
Boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administration authorities) 35,8 30,9 40.2
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 27,8 27,8 45.5
Participation in strikes 42,7 31,8 46.6
Fasting protest 10,6 11,4 14.0
Picketing of government agencies, blocking their work 35,4 38,5 56.0
Capturing the buildings 13,8 19,5 41.0
Creating independent from the government armed forces 15 21,3 50.4
Other (what?) 2,5 6 1.6
I am not ready to participate in any mass protest 2 2,1 3.4
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY 0,5 2,7 3.1

 

How do you think Maidan should respond on the law to amnest protesters which will be embodied after the release of administrative buildings, street. Hrushevskoho and roads by protesters?

  Maidan-Sich
For the quiker release of prisoners it is better to leave the administrationbuilding, unlock street. Hrushevskoho and after demand thr release of arrested 3.9
Discard the conditions made by authorities to release of arrested members ofprotest and demand their release without any conditions 82.7
It is difficult to decide 10.2
I know little about this law and the formal terms of the release of arrested protesters 3.2

 

Azarov's government has resigned, the opposition was offered to lead the government. What do you think about it? ONE ANSWER

  Maidan-Sich
I think that it is a good proposition. They should agree 1.4
I think that we should accept it only if the entire government will be composed of the oppositionrepresentatives 6.5
I think you can agree only when returning to the norms of the Constitution of 2004, with the restriction of presidential powers and strengthening the role of the Prime Minister and the Government 22.1
I think that while the president is Viktor Yanukovych, one cannot agree to any part in the government 61.9
It is difficult to say 8.0

 

There are positions that in order Viktor Yanukovych agreed to hold early presidential re-elections he need get safe conduct to leave him Mezhyhirya and other property. What do you think about such proposals?

  Maidan-Sich
If Yanukovych agreed to his resignation and early re-elections, this proposal would be quite reasonable 16.6
No guarantees to Yanukovich! 78.0
It is difficult to say 5.3

 

How long have you been of Maidan?

  Maidan-Sich
Since its beginning, 21–30 of November 24.2
Since the first week of December 35.5
Since the third week of December 13.7
Since the first week of January 2014 . 12.1
Since the third week of January 8.7
Most recently, from heretofore 3.1
I am not on Maidan constantly, I come from time to time 2.7

 

How long are you going to stay on Maidan?

  Maidan-Sich
Only today 0.5
2-3 days more 0.6
Not more than a week 1.7
Not more than 2 weeks 1.9
Not more than a month 2.0
As long as needed 86.0
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY 7.1

 

Where are you from?

  Maidan-meeting Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
From Kyiv 49,8 19,3 12.4
Came from the region 50,2 80,7 87.6

 

From which locality you have come if you have come?

  Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
The regional cener 31,8 20.0
City (not less then 100 000 of inhabitants) 23 17.3
Town (less then 100 000 of inhabitants) 23,4 42.4
Village  21,8 20.3

 

Where have you come from if you have come? (areas were grouped into regions)

  Maidan-meeting Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
Western Ukraine 51.8 42.4 54.8
Central Ukraine 30.9 34.4 23.0
Eastern and Southern Ukraine 17.3 23.2 21.0

 

If you have came, have you been organized by someone or by you own?

  Maidan-meeting Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
Organized – by a party 1,8 11,9 3.0
Organized — by NGO (or one of the movements) 6,3 11,9 13.3
Came by my own  91,9 76,1 83.5

 

Do you belong to any of the following associations: (you may give more than one answer)

  Maidan-meeting Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
Yes, I belong to a party 3,9 14,9 7.7
Yes, I belong to NGO 3,5 8,9 8.4
Yes, I belong to a movement 1,2 5,9 14.2
No, I do not belong to any of the associations 91,8 70,4 69.9

 

Socio-demographic structure

Sex

  Maidan-meeting Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
Male 57,2 85,1 88.2
Female 42,8 14,9 11.8

 

Age

  Maidan-meeting Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
15–29 38 34.1 33.2
30–54 49 52.0 56.0
55 and older 13 13,9 10.8

 

Education

  Maidan-meeting Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
Incomplete secondary 0,8 2,2 4.3
Secondary general and vocational education 22,1 38,9 43.1
Incomplete higher 14,4 10,3 9.5
Higher 62,7 48,7 43.1

 

Occupation

  Maidan-meeting Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
Director (deputy) of company, institution, unit 8.0 4,2 4.5
Specialist (with a higher education) 39,5 21,7 26.7
Law enforcement officers, military 1,4 2,7 3.0
An entrepreneur (businessman) 9,3 12,3 17.4
An official from the staff (no special education) 2,4 2 4.2
Worker 6,7 14,4 15.2
Farm worker, farmer 0,6 1,9 2.9
Pupil 0,4 1,1
Student 13,2 10,1 6.2
Pensioner 9,4 11,2 7.4
Housekeeper 1,5 0,1 0.3
Do not have a permanent job, but work for the occasion in different places 3,1 8,5 4.5
Temporarily unemployed and have no source of income 2,4 7,7 8.5
Other 2,3 2,1 0.2

 

What language do you normally use at home?

  Maidan-meeting Maidan-camp Maidan-Sich
Russian 25,9 19,6 15.6
Ukrainian 54,6 52,5 59.0
Both 18,6 27,6 24.0
Different 0,4 0,3 0.8
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY 0,5 0 0.5

6.2.2014
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