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How relations between Ukraine and Russia should look like? Public opinion polls’ results

Public opinion poll was conducted by the Ilko  Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation together with Kyiv International Institute of Sociology  in the period between February, 8-18 2014. 2032 respondents were interviewed  in all the districts  of Ukraine (including  Kyiv) and in Crimea according to the random sample, which was representative for  all the population of Ukraine older than 18 years.  Statistical error doesn’t  exceed  2,2% (without design -effect). Question included by  the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation were financed  in the framework of the project “Public sociological consortium” by the European union, MATRA programme  of the Kingdom of Netherlands, International Renaissance Foundation, and also  in the framework of the project  “Stimulating dialog on transition processes” by the National Endowment for Democracy (USA).

Data from public opinion poll, conducted by Russian research organization Levada Centre  is provided for comparison. Levada Centre  conducted  representative for Russia public opinion poll  on February,  21-25 2014 and interviewed  1603 respo

ndents older than 18 years in 130 settlements in 45 districts of the country. Statistical error doesn’t exceed 3,4%.

Ukrainians don’t want visas and borders with Russia, but at the same time don’t want  to be united with Russia  in a single state  

  • In Ukraine, as well as in Russia  majority of respondents  wants both countries to be independent, but friendly  - with open borders, without visas and customs houses (in Ukraine – 68%, in Russia – 59%). In Ukraine  with numbers  have decreased  since November, 2013 by 5%, in Russia – increased  by 4%.
  • Integration with  Russia into a single state   is supported by 12% of respondents in Ukraine, and  during recent years  this number has decreased from 20% to 9%,  but after Maidan – increased by 3%.  The main part of  supporters of this idea of unification with Russia is in the East (26%) and South (19%), while the smallest part is in the Center (5%) and West (1%) of Ukraine.  By regions  majority of integration with Russia in one state  is in Crimea  (41%), Donetsk district (33%), Lugansk district (24%), Odessa district (24%), Zaporizhzhya (17%) and Kharkiv  (15%) districts, but even there  support  to the current status of relations  with Russia   - as two independent and  friendly  states – prevails. 
  • Among Russians  desire to have Ukraine and Russia as two independent and friendly states (with open borders, without visas and customs houses) prevails as well as among Ukrainians (68% and 63% respectively). Integration into one state is supported  by 9% of Ukrainians and 32% of Russians. There is direct dependence  between  desire to unite with Russia into  a single state and age of respondents:  among youth   up to 30 years old  5% want this unification to be realized, among people of 30-54 years old – 11% support that, and  among people older than 55 years – 17%.
  •  It is obvious, that among supporters of joining the Custom Union, there is more people supporting unification  with Russia  (26,5%), than among  those, oriented on joining the EU (1%). However,  even among supporters of entering the Custom Union  majority   wants  to preserve the status-quo in relations with Russia (69%). Among  people, having negative attitude towards Maidan,  only 21% wants to unite with Russia into a single state.
  • Among supporters of political parties  the highest percentage  of people, who wants join Ukraine to join Russia, is among  communists’ electorate  (35,5%), but even in this case majority  consider that Ukraine and Russia should be friendly independent states (63%). Among  Party of Regions  voters 28% support unification with Russia.
  • In Russia  16% of population support  unification with Ukraine into one state.
ТАБЛИЦІ 

What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (region-specific results)2

  West Centre South East Ukraine in general
Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses. 24.0 20.9 10.5 2.0 14.7
Ukraine and Russia   must be independent, but friendly  states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. 66.7 69.7 63.8 72.2 68.0
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state 0.7 5.4 19.4 25.8 12.5
Difficult to say/No answer 8.6 3.9 6.3 0.0 4.7

 
What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (by nationality)

  Ukrainians Russians Ukraine in general
Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses. 17.4 4.6 14.7
Ukraine and Russia   must be independent, but friendly  states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. 68.4 62.9 68.0
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state 8.7 31.8 12.5
Difficult to say/No answer 5.5 0.7 4.7

 

What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (by age)

  18–29 30–54 55 and older Ukraine in general
Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses. 20.1 15.6 11.7 14.7
Ukraine and Russia   must be independent, but friendly  states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. 66.9 68.3 67.3 68.0
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state 5.4 11.2 17.2 12.5
Difficult to say/No answer 7.6 4.9 3.8 4.7

 

What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (depending on orientation  on joining the EU or the Customs Union)

  EU Customs Union Difficult to say Ukraine in general
Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses. 29.2 2.8 11.2 14.7
Ukraine and Russia   must be independent, but friendly  states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. 63.0 69.5 71.2 68.0
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state 1.1 26.5 6.4 12.5
Difficult to say/No answer 5.8 1.1 11.1 4.7

 

What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (depending on attitude towards Maidan)

  Support Maidan Don’t support Difficult to say Ukraine in general
Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses. 26.0 6.6 7.6 14.7
Ukraine and Russia   must be independent, but friendly  states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. 66.9 69.2 62.1 68.0
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state 2.3 21.4 8.6 12.5
Difficult to say/No answer 4.7 3.1 22.7 4.7

 

What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like? (depending on support to political parties)

  Batkivshchyna Svoboda Communist party of Ukraine Party of Regions UDAR Ukraine in general
Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses. 24.8 38.6 1.4 2.7 25.5 14.7
Ukraine and Russia   must be independent, but friendly  states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. 68.9 58.4 63.1 67.9 67.9 68.0
Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state 0.1 0.0 35.5 28.3 2.1 12.5
Difficult to say/No answer 5.3 2.9 0.0 1.1 5.9 4.7

 

Dynamic of public opinion regarding  relations between Ukraine and Russia

Ukraine-Russia comparative data (Ukraine - Russia)

 

Percentage of those, who want Ukraine to join Russia1

  Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state 2013, % Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state February, 8-18 2014, %
AR Crimea 35.9 41.0
Donetsk 29.8 33.2
Lugansk 29.4 24.1
Оdessa 22.8 24.0
Dnipropetrovsk 14.7 13.8
Kharkiv 13.9 15.1
Zaporizhzhya 8.9 16.7
Vinnytsya 8.6 2.7
Kyiv (city) 3.7 5.3
Poltava 3.3 4.3
Kyiv (region) 3.0 6.4
Lviv 0.3 0.0

 

What would you like to see the relationship between Ukraine and Russia look like?

  UKRAINE
Дата Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses Ukraine and Russia   must be independent, but friendly  states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state Difficult to say/No answer TOTAL
apr.2008 10 67 20 3 100
sept.2008 17 66 16 2 100
feb.2009 8 68 23 1 100
may.2009 10 65 23 2 100
oct.2009 11 67 19 3 100
mar.2010 11 67 19 3 100
june.2010 12 70 16 2 100
oct.2010 10 67 20 2 100
nov.2011 13 67 16 1 100
feb. 2012 13 69 16 2 100
вер. 2012 11 72 14 3 100
feb.2013 13 68 16 3 100
may.2013 11 69 14 5 100
nov.2013 12 73 9 6 100
feb.2014 15 68 12 5 100
  RUSSIA
  Relations  should be  the same as with other  states – with  closed borders, visas and customs houses Ukraine and Russia   must be independent, but friendly  states – with open borders, without visas and customs houses. Ukraine and Russia must unite into a single state Difficult to say/No answer TOTAL
mar.2008  19  56  19  100
sept.2008  24  52  13  11  100
jan.2009  29  51  12  100
june.2009  25  55  14  100
sept.2009  25  55  13  100
jan.2010  25  55  14  100
may.2010  17  64  13  100
sept.2010  16  60  18  100
sept.2011 16 63 14 6 100
jan.2012 16 61 16 8 100
sept.2012 14 60 20 6 100
feb.2013 13 64 18 6 100
may.2013 19 58 15 8 100
sept.2013 23 55 16 6 100
jan.2014 19 59 16 6 100

 

Якими загалом Ви зараз ставитеся до України (до Росії)?

В УКРАЇНІ ДО РОСІЇ ставляться, % В РОСІЇ ДО УКРАЇНИ ставляться, %
Дата дуже добре/ в основ- ному добре в основному погано/ дуже погано ВАЖКО СКАЗАТИ РАЗОМ Дата дуже добре/ в основ- ному добре в основному погано/ дуже погано ВАЖКО СКАЗАТИ РАЗОМ
квіт.08 88 7 5 100 бер.08 55 33 12 100
вер.08 88 9 3 100 вер.08 38 53 10 100
лют.09 91 5 4 100 січ.09 29 62 10 100
трав.09 93 4 3 100 трав.09 33 56 11 100
жовт.09 92 6 3 100 вер.09 46 44 10 100
бер.10 90 6 4 100 бер.10 59 29 12 100
черв.10 92 6 3 100 лип.10 70 22 9 100
жовт.10 93 4 3 100 жовт.10 67 21 12 100
лист.11 80 13 7 100 вер.11 68 23 9 100
лют.12 85 9 6 100 січ.12 64 25 12 100
вер.12 83 11 6 100 вер.12 74 17 10 100
лют.13 85 8 7 100 лют.13 69 21 9 100
трав.13 81 10 9 100 трав.13 72 18 9 100
лист.13 82 10 8 100 вер.13 69 22 8 100
лют.14 78 13 9 100 січ.14 66 26 9 100

 

 ГРАФІКИ

Графік 1. Ставлення населення України до Росії і населенні Росії до України, % тих, хто ставиться позитивно

 Графік 2. Яких відносин з Росією хочуть в Україні?

 


1 Західний макрорегіон — Волинська, Рівненська. Львівська, Івано-Франківська, Тернопільська, Закарпатська, Хмельницька, Чернівецька області; Центральний макрорегіон — Вінницька, Житомирська, Сумська, Чернігівська, Полтавська, Кіровоградська, Черкаська, Київська області, м. Київ, Південний макрорегіон — Дніпропетровська, Запорізька, Миколаївська, Херсонська, Одеська області, АР Крим (включно з м. Севастополем), Східний макрорегіон — Донецька, Луганська, Харківська області
2 Наводяться дані лише по тих областях, де кількість респондентів достатня для статистичної репрезентативності

4.3.2014
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