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Electoral moods of ukrainian voters

Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted public opinion poll on request of commercial client during February 28– March 3, 2014. 1022 respondents were surveyed with face-to-face interviewing method in all regions of Ukraine (including the city of Kyiv) and Crimea; the sample is random with quota selection on the last step, representative for the Ukrainian population aged 18 years and older.

Statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and excluding design-effect) does not exceed: 3.1% for indicators close to 50%, 2,7% — for indicators close to 25% or 75%, 2,1% — for indicators close to 12% or 88%, 1,4% — for indicators close to 5% or 95%.

 

13 different lists of possible candidates for Presidency were suggested to respondents to explore their electoral intentions. All lists included the following political figures: A. Hrytsenko, V. Klytschko, V. Medvedchuk, P. Poroshenko, P. Symonenko, Yu. Tymoshenko, O. Tiahnybok. Besides, each of 13 lists contained one of the following political figures: S. Tihipko, O. Vilkyl, M. Dobkin, R. Akhmetov, N. Shufrych, M. Azarov, D. Tabachnyk, H. Herman, Yu. Boiko, R. Bohatyriova, V. Rybak, I. Akimova, O. Yefremov. Party affiliation of possible candidates for presidency was not indicated in the lists shown to the respondents.

According to the survey results, if the presidential elections will take place in the beginning of March, the votes would be distributed among candidates in the following way:

–       in case S.Tihipko will take part in the elections: P. Poroshenko – 19.8%, V. Klytschko – 12.1%, Yu. Tymoshenko – 8.4%, S. Tihipko – 8%, P. Symonenko – 5%, . Hrytsenko – 4.6%, O. Tiahnybok – 1.7%, V. Medvedchuk – 0.7%. 17.6% of voters will not support any candidate;

–       in case O. Vilkyl will take part in the elections: P. Poroshenko – 20.2%, V. Klytschko – 12.2%, Yu. Tymoshenko – 8.6%, P. Symonenko – 6.1%, . Hrytsenko – 4.4%, O. Tiahnybok – 2.2%, V. Medvedchuk – 0.9%, O. Vilkyl – 0.5%. 21.5% of voters will not support any candidate;

–       in case M. Dobkin will take part in the elections: P. Poroshenko – 20.5%, V. Klytschko – 11.7%, Yu. Tymoshenko – 8.8%, P. Symonenko – 5.4%, . Hrytsenko – 4.2%, M. Dobkin – 3.6%, O. Tiahnybok – 2.2%, V. Medvedchuk – 0.8%. 19.8% of voters will not support any candidate;

–       in case R. Akhmetov will take part in the elections: P. Poroshenko – 20.5%, V. Klytschko – 11.8%, Yu.Tymoshenko – 8.8%, P. Symonenko – 5,8%, . Hrytsenko – 4.3%, R. Akhmetov – 3.4%, O. Tiahnybok – 2%, V. Medvedchuk – 1%. 19.3% of voters will not support any candidate;

–       in case N. Shufrychwill take part in the elections: P. Poroshenko – 20.5%, V. Klytschko – 12.3%, Yu. Tymoshenko – 8.8%, P. Symonenko – 5.6%, . Hrytsenko – 3.9%, N. Shufrych – 2.5%, O. Tiahnybok – 2%, V. Medvedchuk – 1%. 20% of voters will not support any candidate;

–       in case M. Azarov will take part in the elections: P. Poroshenko – 20.4%, V. Klytschko – 12.4%, Yu. Tymoshenko – 8.4%, P. Symonenko – 5.7%, . Hrytsenko – 4.2%, M. Azarov – 2.4%, O. Tiahnybok – 2%, V. Medvedchuk – 1%. 20.4% of voters will not support any candidate;

–       in case D. Tabachnyk  will take part in the elections: P. Poroshenko – 20.5%, V. Klytschko – 11.8%, Yu.Tymoshenko – 8.7%, P. Symonenko – 6%, . Hrytsenko – 4.3%, O. Tiahnybok – 2.2%, V. Medvedchuk – 1.1%, D. Tabachnyk – 0.6%. 21% of voters will not support any candidate;

–       in case H. Herman will take part in the elections: P. Poroshenko – 20.2%, V. Klytschko – 12.3%, Yu.Tymoshenko – 8.9%, P. Symonenko – 5.9%, . Hrytsenko – 3.7%, O. Tiahnybok – 2.2%, H. Herman – 1.8%, V. Medvedchuk – 0.8%. 21.1% of voters will not support any candidate;

–       in case Yu.Boiko will take part in the elections: P. Poroshenko – 20.1%, V. Klytschko – 12.5%, Yu. Tymoshenko – 8.9%, P. Symonenko – 5.8%, . Hrytsenko – 4.1%, O. Tiahnybok – 2%, Yu. Boiko – 1.2%, V. Medvedchuk – 0.9%. 20.9% of voters will not support any candidate;

–       in case R.Bohatyriova will take part in the elections: P. Poroshenko – 20.6%, V. Klytschko – 12%, Yu. Tymoshenko – 9.1%, P. Symonenko – 5.8%, . Hrytsenko – 4.1%, O. Tiahnybok – 2,1%, V. Medvedchuk – 1%, R. Bohatyriova – 0.7%. 21.4% of voters will not support any candidate;

–       in case V. Rybak will take part in the elections: P. Poroshenko – 20.5%, V. Klytschko – 12.2%, Yu. Tymoshenko – 8.9%, P. Symonenko – 5.7%, . Hrytsenko – 4%, O. Tiahnybok – 2%, V. Rybak – 1.7%, V. Medvedchuk – 0.9%. 20.9% of voters will not support any candidate;

–       in case I. Akimova will take part in the elections: P. Poroshenko – 20.3%, V. Klytschko – 12.2%, Yu. Tymoshenko – 9.1%, P. Symonenko – 6.1%, . Hrytsenko – 4%, O. Tiahnybok – 1.9%, I. Akimova – 1%, V. Medvedchuk – 0.8%. 21.1% of voters will not support any candidate;

–       in case O. Yefremov will take part in the elections: P. Poroshenko – 20.1%, V. Klytschko – 12.3%, Yu. Tymoshenko – 9.1%, P. Symonenko – 5.2%, . Hrytsenko – 4.2%, O. Yefremov – 3.1%, O. Tiahnybok – 2%, V. Medvedchuk – 1%. 20.1% of voters will not support any candidate.

         Therefore, relative rating of «experimental» candidates (from the list of surnames that were included one by one) is as follows: Serhii Tihipko possess the leading position (8%), the second is shared by Mykhailo Dobkin (3.6%), Rinat Akhmetov (3.4%) and O. Yefremov (3.1%), the third place goes to Nestor Shufrych (2.5%) and Mykola Azarov (2.4%).  They are followed by Hanna Herman (1.8) and Volodymyr Rybak (1.7%), Yuriy Boiko (1.2) and Iryna Akimova (1%) and Raisa Bohatyriova (0.7%), Dmytro TAbachnyk (0.6%) and Vilkul (0.5%).


Appendix

The question regarding the elections of the President of Ukraine was asked as follows:

As you might know, the Ukrainian Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) assigned pre-term elections of the President of Ukraine on May 25. The exact list of candidates who will take part in the elections is still unknown. I will show possible lists of candidates who might be included in the bulletin to you. Please, indicate which of these candidates you would vote for if the elections will take place this Sunday.

Answers to this questions distributed as follows:

LIST 1 (S. Tihipko)

Hrytsenko Anatolii 4.6
Klytschko Vitalii 12.1
Medvedchuk Viktor 0.7
Poroshenko Petro 19.8
Symonenko Petro 5.0
Tihipko Serhii 8.0
Tymoshenko Yuliya 8.4
Tiahnybok Oleh 1.7
WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE 17.6
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/DON’T KNOW 17.7
WOULD NOT VOTE 3.2
REFUSE TO ANSWER 1.2

LIST 2 (O. Vilkyl)

Hrytsenko Anatolii 4.4
Klytschko Vitalii 12.2
Medvedchuk Viktor 0.9
Poroshenko Petro 20.2
Symonenko Petro 6.1
Vilkul Oleksandr 0.5
Tymoshenko Yuliya 8.6
Tiahnybok Oleh 2.2
WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE 21.5
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/DON’T KNOW 18.8
WOULD NOT VOTE 3.5
REFUSE TO ANSWER 1.2

LIST 3 (M. Dobkin)

Hrytsenko Anatolii 4.2
Klytschko Vitalii 11.7
Medvedchuk Viktor 0.8
Poroshenko Petro 20.5
Symonenko Petro 5.4
Dobkin Mykhailo 3.6
Tymoshenko Yuliya 8.8
Tiahnybok Oleh 2.2
WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE 19.8
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/DON’T KNOW 18.5
WOULD NOT VOTE 3.4
REFUSE TO ANSWER 1.2

 

LIST 4 (R. Akhmetov)

Hrytsenko Anatolii 4.3
Klychko Vitalii 11.8
Medvedchuk Viktor 1.0
Poroshenko Petro 20.5
Symonenko Petro 5.8
Akhmetov Rinat 3.4
Tymoshenko Yuliya 8.8
Tiahnybok Oleh 2.0
WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE 19.3
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/DON’T KNOW 18.4
WOULD NOT VOTE 3.6
REFUSE TO ANSWER 1.1

 

LIST 5 (N. Shufrych)

Hrytsenko Anatolii 3.9
Klytschko Vitalii 12.3
Medvedchuk Viktor 1.0
Poroshenko Petro 20.5
Symonenko Petro 5.6
Shufrych Nestor 2.5
Tymoshenko Yuliya 8.8
Tiahnybok Oleh 2.0
WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE 20.0
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/DON’T KNOW 18.8
WOULD NOT VOTE 3.5
REFUSE TO ANSWER 1.2

 

LIST 6 (M. Azarov)

Hrytsenko Anatolii 4.2
Klytschko Vitalii 12.4
Medvedchuk Viktor 1.0
Poroshenko Petro 20.4
Symonenko Petro 5.7
Azarov Mykola 2.4
Tymoshenko Yuliya 8.4
Tiahnybok Oleh 2.0
WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE 20.4
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/DON’T KNOW 18.7
WOULD NOT VOTE 3.3
REFUSE TO ANSWER 1.2

 

LIST 7 (D. Tabachnyk)

Hrytsenko Anatolii 4.3
Klytschko Vitalii 11.8
Medvedchuk Viktor 1.1
Poroshenko Petro 20.5
Symonenko Petro 6.0
Tabachnyk Dmytro 0.6
Tymoshenko Yuliya 8.7
Tiahnybok Oleh 2.2
WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE 21.0
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/DON’T KNOW 19.1
WOULD NOT VOTE 3.6
REFUSE TO ANSWER 1.2

 

LIST 8 (H. Herman)

Hrytsenko Anatolii 3.7
Klytschko Vitalii 12.3
Medvedchuk Viktor 0.8
Poroshenko Petro 20.2
Symonenko Petro 5.9
Heman Hanna 1.8
Tymoshenko Yuliya 8.9
Tiahnybok Oleh 2.2
WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE 21.1
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/DON’T KNOW 18.6
WOULD NOT VOTE 3.4
REFUSE TO ANSWER 1.2

 

LIST 9 (Yu. Boiko)

Hrytsenko Anatolii 4.1
Klytschko Vitalii 12.5
Medvedchuk Viktor 0.9
Poroshenko Petro 20.1
Symonenko Petro 5.8
Boiko Yuriy 1.2
Tymoshenko Yuliya 8.9
Tiahnybok Oleh 2.0
WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE 20.9
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/DON’T KNOW 18.8
WOULD NOT VOTE 3.7
REFUSE TO ANSWER 1.2

 

LIST 10 (R. Bohatyriova)

Hrytsenko Anatolii 4.1
Klytschko Vitalii 12.0
Medvedchuk Viktor 1.0
Poroshenko Petro 20.6
Symonenko Petro 5.8
Bohatyriova Raisa 0.7
Tymoshenko Yuliya 9.1
Tiahnybok Oleh 2.1
WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE 21.4
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/DON’T KNOW 18.4
WOULD NOT VOTE 3.6
REFUSE TO ANSWER 1.2

 

LIST 11 (V. Rybak)

Hrytsenko Anatolii 4.0
Klytschko Vitalii 12.2
Medvedchuk Viktor 0.9
Poroshenko Petro 20.5
Symonenko Petro 5.7
Rybak Volodymyr 1.7
Tymoshenko Yuliya 8.9
Tiahnybok Oleh 2.0
WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE 20.9
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/DON’T KNOW 18.7
WOULD NOT VOTE 3.4
REFUSE TO ANSWER 1.2

 

LIST 12 (I. Akimova)

Hrytsenko Anatolii 4.0
Klytschko Vitalii 12.2
Medvedchuk Viktor 0.8
Poroshenko Petro 20.3
Symonenko Petro 6.1
Akimova Iryna 1.0
Tymoshenko Yuliya 9.1
Tiahnybok Oleh 1.9
WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE 21.1
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/DON’T KNOW 18.7
WOULD NOT VOTE 3.7
REFUSE TO ANSWER 1.2

 

LIST 13 (O. Yefremov)

Hrytsenko Anatolii 4.2
Klytschko Vitalii 12.3
Medvedchuk Viktor 1.0
Poroshenko Petro 20.1
Symonenko Petro 5.2
Yefremov Oleksandr 3.1
Tymoshenko Yuliya 9.1
Tiahnybok Oleh 2.0
WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE 20.1
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/DON’T KNOW 18.2
WOULD NOT VOTE 3.6
REFUSE TO ANSWER 1.2

 

Relative ranking of candidates from the experimental list

Tihipko Serhii 8.1
Dobkin Mykhailo 3.6
Akhmetov Rinat 3.4
Yefremov Oleksandr 3.1
Shufrych Nestor 2.5
Azarov Mykola 2.4
Heman Hanna 1.8
Rybak Volodymyr 1.7
Boiko Yuriy 1.2
Akimova Iryna 1.0
Bohatyriova Raisa 0.7
Tabachnyk Dmytro 0.6
Vilkul Oleksandr 0.5

 

 Ranking of candidates among the population of specific macro-regions (LIST 1)

 

  West Center South East
Hrytsenko Anatolii 5.3 8.9 1.1 2.3
Klytschko Vitalii 24.9 16.1 5.2 2.3
Medvedchuk Viktor 0.0 0.0 2.2 .5
Poroshenko Petro 31.6 28.2 11.1 6.8
Symonenko Petro 0.0 4.3 7.8 7.7
Tihipko Serhii 0.9 3.9 11.5 16.7
Tymoshenko Yuliya 13.8 9.5 5.9 4.5
Tiahnybok Oleh 3.6 1.6 1.5 0.0
WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE 3.1 11.8 21.1 36.0
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/DON’T KNOW 12.9 14.4 24.4 18.9
WOULD NOT VOTE 2.2 1.3 5.6 4.1
REFUSE TO ANSWER 1.8 0.0 2.6 .5

6.3.2014
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