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Electoral orientations of Ukrainians, March 2014

All-Ukrainian civic organization «Committee of Voters of Ukraine» presents the results of all-Ukrainian sociological survey conducted by four sociological agencies:

  • Kyiv International Institute of Sociology;
  • Centre for social and marketing surveys «SOCIS»;
  • Sociological group «RATING»;
  • Razumkov Centre.

The survey audience: Ukrainian population aged 18 years and older
 
Sample: Representative quota sample of 6200 respondents (1550 respondents by each sociological center) in all regions of Ukraine (excluding Crimea)
 
Survey method: face-to-face structured interview at the place of respondent’s residence
 
Sample error (confidence interval): not more than 0,8%
 
Period of survey (field stage):  March 14 – 19, 2014

 

Electoral orientations of ukrainians

 

Ukrainians demonstrate very high level of electoral activity, around 84% of voters are ready or rather ready to participate in voting. At the same time there are 11% of those who have the opposite opinion.

 

Readiness to participate in the Elections of the President of Ukraine, %

Definitely YES (completely confident) 58.7
Rather YES (perhaps, maybe) 25.0
Rather NO (perhaps, maybe) 4.5
Definitely NO (completely confident) 6.5
REFUSE TO ANSWER/DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 5.4

 

24.9% of respondents are ready to support Petro Poroshenko on the Presidential elections taking place on May 25 this year. The second place goes to V.Klytschko with 8.9%,  the third place is for Yu.Tymoshenko with 8.2%. Serhii Tihipko is supported by 7.3% of voters, and the ex-governor of Kharkivska oblast Mykhailo Dobkin got 4.2%. Around 20% of voters indicate that at the moment they do not know whom to vote for or will not go to the elections. 9.7% are ready to vote «against all» candidates.

Among those who is going to come to the voting point and made a decision about whom to vote for, TOP-5 of the presidential competition would look as follows: P.Poroshenko – 36.2%, V.Klytschko is on the second place with possible 12.9% votes, the third place is taken by Yu.Tymoshenko with 12.0%. S.Tihipko and .Dobkin who would get 10.0% and 5.3% respectively.

 
Ranking of potential candidates at the Presidential elections, %

  Among all respondents Among those who are going to participate in voting and made a choice of candidate
Petro Poroshenko 24.9 36,2
Vitaliy Klytschko 8.9 12,9
Yuliya Tymoshenko 8.2 12,0
Serhii Tihipko 7.3 10,0
Mykhailo Dobkin 4.2 5,3
Petro Symonenko 3.6 5,0
Oleh Liashko 3.5 5,0
Anatolii Hrytsenko 3.2 4,6
Oleh Tiahnybok 1.7 2,5
Dmytro Yarosh 0.9 1,4
Viktor Medvedchuk 0.4 0,7
OTHER CANDIDATE 3.4 4,4
REFUSE TO ANSWER/ DON’T KNOW/ DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 14.1
DO NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE 9.7
WILL NOT PARTICIPATE IN ELECTIONS 5.8

 

During the survey respondents were suggested to make their own forecast on who will be the next President of Ukraine. The respondents were suggested to answer the following question: «Please, tell me, despite which candidate you personally support, who will win the elections and will become the next President of Ukraine?»

The most likely winner of the presidential elections is P.Poroshenko gaining 23.6% of votes. The win of Yu.Tymoshenko is foreseen by 8.8% of voters, and V.Klytschko got 6.6%. The win of S.Tihipko is expected by only 3.6% of surveyed Ukrainians. Around a half– 50.6% of all respondents refused to give a forecast regarding the expected President of Ukraine.

 

Tell me, please, despite the candidate that you support, who will win and elections will become the next President of Ukraine? %

Petro Poroshenko 23.6
Yuliya Tymoshenko 8.8
Vitaliy Klytschko 6.6
Serhii Tihipko 3.6
Petro Symonenko 0.9
Oleh Liashko 0.8
Mykhailo Dobkin 0.7
Anatolii Hrytsenko 0.6
Oleh Tiahnybok 0.6
Dmytro Yarosh 0.3
Viktor Medvedchuk 0.1
OTHER CANDIDATE 2.9
REFUSE TO ANSWER/ DON’T KNOW/ DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 50.6

 

Therefore, we can be confidents about the participation of P.Poroshenko in the second tour. Three candidates have rather equal chances to appear in the second elections round - V.Klytschko, Yu.Tymoshenko and S.Tihipko.

That is why the voting options in the second round are displayed as the following pairs:

Poroshenko – Klytschko,

Poroshenko – Tymoshenko

Poroshenko – Tihipko.

 

Whom would you vote for in the second round in case the following two candidates will remain……? %

For P.Poroshenko 42.9
For V.Klytschnko 15.3
AGAINST BOTH 22.6
WOULD NOT TAKE PART IN THE 2ND ROUND 7.9
REFUSE TO ANSWER/ DON’T KNOW/ DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 11.3

 

Whom would you vote for in the second round in case the following two candidates will remain…? %

For P.Poroshenko 46.3
For Yu.Tymoshenko 11.6
AGAINST BOTH 23.3
WOULD NOT TAKE PART IN THE 2ND ROUND 7.8
REFUSE TO ANSWER/ DON’T KNOW/ DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 10.9

 

Whom would you vote for in the second round in case the following two candidates will remain…? %

For P.Poroshenko 50.8
For S.Tihipko 14.4
AGAINST BOTH 15.7
WOULD NOT TAKE PART IN THE 2ND ROUND 7.4
REFUSE TO ANSWER/ DON’T KNOW/ DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 11.7

 

As for the political preferences towards the political parties, the electoral orientations of Ukrainians are distributed as follows: the first place is taken by All-Ukrainian Union Batkivshchyna («Fatherland») headed by Yu.Tymoshenko receives 15% of people’s support. The «Solidarity» Party headed by P.Poroshenko would get 14.8% of voters support. The Party «UDAR .Klytschnko» is on the third position with 11.3%. The Party of Regions is currently supported by 10.5% of Ukrainians, while the Communist Party of Ukraine and the Radical Party of O.Liashko got 4.9% and 3.9% respectively. All-Ukrainian Union «Svoboda» («Freedom») can currently receive 3.5% of votes of Ukrainian citizens. It should be taken into account that around 30% of voters indicate that they do not know which party they will support and whether they will come to the elections on the day of the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine if they would occur in the nearest future.

 

Rankings of political parties, %

  Among all respondents Among those who are going to take part in the elections and decided about the party
`All-Ukrainian Union Batkivshchyna («Fatherland») 15.0 22,2
«Solidarity» Party (P.Poroshenko) 14.8 21,6
`Political Party `UDAR of V.Klytschko` (V.Klytschko) 11.3 16,4
Party of Regions (S.Tihipko) 10.5 13,6
Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) 4.9 6,9
Radical Party of Oleh Liashko (.Liashko) 3.9 5,7
All-Ukrainian Union `Svoboda` («Freedom») (.Tiahnybok) 3.5 5,2
The Party `Pravyi Sektor` (D.Yarosh) 1.8 2,7
The Party `Ukrainskyi Vybir` («Ukrainian Choice») (V.Medvedchuk) 0.6 1,0
The Party `Nasha Ukraina` («Our Ukraine») (V.Yushchenko) 0.4 0,6
Other party 3.3 4,2
WOULD NOT TAKE PART IN THE ELECTIONS 9.2
REFUSE TO ANSWER/ DON’T KNOW/ DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 20.9

 

 


3.4.2014
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