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Electoral moods of Ukrainian voters two weeks before the presidential elections

KyivInternationalInstituteofSociology (KIIS) conductedall-UkrainianpublicopinionpollduringApril29 - May11, 2014. 2022 respondentsweresurveyedwithface-to-faceinterviewingmethodin 110 settlementsinallregionsofUkraine(excludingARCrimea);thesampleisrandomand representative for the Ukrainian population aged 18 years and older.

Statisticalsampleerror(withprobabilityof0.95 andexcludingdesign-effect) doesnotexceed: 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2,8% — for indicators close to 25%, 2.0% — for indicators close to 10%, 1,4% — for indicators close to 5%


 Ifthepresidentialelectionswilltakeplacetwo weeks earlier, the votes of Ukrainian citizens aged 18 years old and older would be distributed as follows -

  •  33,7% would vote for Petro Poroshenko,
  •  5.9% - for Yuliya Tymoshenko,
  •  4.1% - for Serhii Tyhipko,
  •  4.0% - for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
  •  3.3% - for Oleh Liashko,
  •  2.6% - for Mykhailo Dobkin,
  •  2.4% - for Petro Symonenko,
  •  2.1% - for Olha Bohomolets,
  •  1.0% - for Oleh Tiahnybok
  •  forthe other 14 candidates  –  2,4 in total%,
  •  13,0 % - decided not to participate in voting
  •   25,4% -  did not decide whom to vote for. 

     Therefore, ifthepresidentialelectionswouldtakeplace 2 weeksearlier, andallpeoplewhohadnotmadetheirchoiceatthatmoment, thetotalnumberofvoteswouldbearound 62%of the number of voters, while other candidates would get the following distribution of votes:

  •  54.7% - for Petro Poroshenko,
  •  9.6% - for Yuliya Tymoshenko,
  •  6.7% - for Serhii Tyhipko,
  •  6.5% - for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
  •  5.4% - for Oleh Liashko,
  •  4.3% - for Mykhailo Dobkin,
  •  3.9% - for Petro Symonenko,
  •  3.5% - for Olha Bohomolets,
  •  1.6% - for Oleh Tiahnybok.

 

Therewillbenoneedinthesecondroundofelectionsincaseofsuchdistributionofvotes.

 

       RegionaldistributionofPetro Poroshenko’ssupportersamongallUkrainiancitizensagedover 18 years old is as follows[1]:

  • in the Western region – 53%,  in the Central– 41%,  in the Southern - 25% and in the Eastern  – around 11%.

 

 

 

Appendix

 

 

The first question regarding assumable elections was asked as follows:

 

IftheelectionswilltakeplacethisSunday, wouldyouvote?IF «YES» Which candidate would you vote for?

 

  Candidates May 11Expected participation in the elections62%
% outofallcitisens aged18 y.o. and more % of those who are ready to vote and made their choice
1 Poroshenko Petro 33.7 54.7
2 Tymoshenko Yuliya 5.9 9.6
3 Tihipko Serhii 4.1 6.7
4 Hrytsenko Anatolii 4.0 6.5
5 Liashko Oleh 3.3 5.4
6 Dobkin Makhailo 2.6 4.3
7 Symonenko Petro 2.4 3.9
8 Bohomolets Olha 2.1 3.5
9 Tiahnybok Oleh 1.0 1.6
10 Rabinovych Vadym 0.6 0.9
11 Yarysh Dmytro 0.6 0.9
12 Tsariov Oleh 0.3 0.5
13 Korolevska Natalia 0.2 0.3
14 Boiko Yurii 0.2 0.2
15 Konovaliuk Valerii 0.2 0.2
16 Tsushko Vasyl 0.2 0.2
17 Hrynenko Andrii 0.1 0.2
18 Klymenko Oleksandr 0.1 0.2
19 Kuzmin Renat 0.1 0.1
20 Saranov Volodymyr 0.1 0.1
21 Kuibida Vasyl’ 0.0 0.0
22 Malomuzh Mykola 0.0 0.0
23 Shkiriak Zorian 0.0 0.0
  WOULD NOT VOTE 13.0 -
  DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 25.4 -
  TOTAL 100.0 100.0

 

 

 

 

Distribution of candidates’ supporters in the regions

(% of all residents of the region aged 18 y.o. and more)

 

  Macroregions
Western Central Southern Eastern
Poroshenko Petro 53.0 41.4 25.3 10.5
Tymoshenko Yuliya 7.9 8.6 4.8 1.2
Tihipko Serhii 1.1 2.4 8.1 5.6
Hrytsenko Anatolii 4.1 5.7 4.4 1.2
Liashko Oleh 7.1 3.6 2.2  0
Dobkin Makhailo  0 0.6 2.4 8.6
Symonenko Petro  0 1.8 4.0 4.2
Bohomolets Olha 3.0 1.8 2.4 1.4
Tiahnybok Oleh 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.5
Rabinovych Vadym 0.2 0.2 1.1 0.9
Yarosh Dmytro 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.7
Tsariov Oleh  0  0 0.4 0.9
Korolevska Natalia  0 0.3 0.4  0
Boiko Yurii  0 0.3  0 0.2
Konovaliuk Valerii  0  0 0.7  0
Tsushko Vasyl  0 0.2 0.4  0
Hrynenko Andrii 0.2 0.2  0  0
Klymenko Oleksandr  0 0.3  0  0
Kuzmin Renat  0  0  0 0.2
Saranov Volodymyr  0 0.2  0  0
DO NOT KNOW/DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 17.1 24.9 28.6 31.5
WOULD NOT VOTE 3.6 6.5 13.4 32.2
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0


[1] Western region - eight most western oblasts: Volynska, Rivnenska, Lvivska, Ivano-Frankivska, Ternopilska, Khmelnytska, Zakarpatska, and Chernivetska (24% of voters);

Centralregion - Zhytomyrska, Vinnytska, Kirovohradska, Cherkaska, Poltavska, Sumska, Chernihivska, KyiskaoblastsandthecityofKyiv(32% of voters);

SouthernregionDnipropetrovska, Odeska, Mykolaiyvska, Khersonska, andZaporizkaoblasts (23% of voters);

Easternregion - Kharkivska, DonetskaandLuhanskaoblasts(22% of voters).


15.5.2014
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