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Euromaidan turned half a year: the amount of Ukrainians who wants to join the EU is by 20% more than amount of those who prefer joining the Customs Union.
Valeriy Khmelko, Oleksandr Dyshleviy
In a period from April 22 to May 14, 2014 Kiev International Institute of Sociology conducted thenationwide public opinion survey as a part of KIIS May omnibus. Fieldwork took place from April 29 to May 11, 2014. The survey was conducted in 110 localities (PSU) in all regions of Ukraine, except Crimea. As a result, 2022 questionnaires were collected.
Statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed:
47% would vote for joining the European Union;
27% would vote for joining the Customs Union;
12% would not participate;
14% have not come up to a decision on this issue yet.
Therefore, the amount of Ukrainians who supports joining the European Union is by 20% bigger than the amount of Ukrainians, who prefer joining the Customs Union. At the same time, in the similar survey before the protests in the end of November, 2013, the amount of people who would vote for joining EU was only by 3% bigger than amount of those, who would vote for CU (39% for EU, 36% for CU).
As to regional differentiation, people in Western (82% - EU, 5% - CU) and Central (58% - EU, 12% - CU) regions mostly support joining the European Union; simultaneously people in Eastern (12% - EU, 63% - CU) and South (28% - EU, 37% - CU) regions mostly support the idea of joining the Customs Union.
Question about geopolitical orientations of the citizens of Ukraine is given here in the same formulation as it was asked in mid-November, 2013 and mid-February, 2014 surveys. For the correct comparison, at first we compared the results of mid-November, 2013 Omnibus and mid-February Omnibus, when Crimea residents participated, and then we compared the results of mid-February, 2014 Omnibus (without the answers of Crimea residents) with the last May Omnibus.
Table 1. “If the referendum about joining either European Union or Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan took place next Sunday, how would you vote then?” The answers to this question (as a percentage for the adult population aged 18 and above) in the table are about Ukraine.
*In a period of November 9 - 20, 2013 Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted the public opinion survey by the customer order. Sample was random and representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above: 2011 respondents, living in all regions of Ukraine (including Kyiv) and in Crimea, were interviewed personally.
**Nationwide public opinion survey was conducted by Kiev International Institute of Sociology and Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation in a period from 8th to 18th of February, 2014: 2032 respondents, living in all regions of Ukraine (including Kyiv) and in Crimea, were interviewed. Sample was random and representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.
For further comments please contact Valeriy Khmelko (firstname.lastname@example.org) or Oleksandr Dyshleviy (email@example.com).