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Electoral intentions of voters: The elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine: August 2014

In a period from 21th to 28th of August, 2014 Kiev International Institute of Sociology conducted thenationwide public opinion survey for the customer order. Data was collected from 2040 respondents living in 110 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except Luhansk region and Crimea) through the method of personal interview. The sample was random with quota selection at the last stage and  is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

It was impossible to conduct the survey in Luhansk region because of the military operations and transport problems. Interviews, which should have been conducted in the Luhansk region, were held in the Donetsk region instead.

Statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed:

3.3% — for indicators close to 50%;
2,8% — for indicators close to 25%;
2,0% — for indicators close to 10%;
1,4% — for indicators close to 5%.

 

If the elections to Verkhovna Rada took place in the end of August, 2014, the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above would vote in the following way:

  • 16,1% - fo the party “Solidarnist”;

  • 9,4%  - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 5,7%  - for the Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna”;

  • 5,2% - for the party “Gromadyanska pozytsiya”;

  • 4,1% - for the party “UDAR of Vitalii Klychko”;

  • 3,9% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 2,7% - for the party“Sylna Ukraina”;

  • 2,2%  - for Komunistychna partiya Ukrainy;

  • 1,6% - for the party “Samopomich”;

  • 1,3% - for the Partiya regioniv;

  • 1,0% - for the party “Pravyi sektor”;

  • 3,7%  - for all other parties in total;

  • 2,2%  would spoil the ballot;

  • 16,4% decided not to participate;

  • 24,9% have not decided yet for whom to vote.

 

Therefore, ifthe parliamentary elections took place in in the end of August, 2014 and those, who has not decided yet, did not come to the elections, about 57% of voters would participate and their votes would distribute in the following way:

  • 28,5% - fo the party “Solidarnist”;

  • 16,5%  - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 10%  - for the Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna”;

  • 9,2% - for the party “Gromadyanska pozytsiya”;

  • 7,2% - for the party “UDAR of Vitalii Klychko”;

  • 6,9% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 4,7% - for the party“Sylna Ukraina”;

  • 3,9%  - for Komunistychna partiya Ukrainy;

  • 2,7% - for the party “Samopomich”;

  • 2,2% - for the Partiya regioniv;

  • 1,8% - for the party “Pravyi sektor”;

  • 6,5%  - for all other parties in total.

If the blocks of parties were also allowed to participate, the votes of population of Ukraine aged 18 and above would be distributed in the following way:

  • 17,5% - for the Block of P. Poroshenko (“UDAR”, “Solidarnist”, “Tretya Ukrainska Respublika”);

  • 10,4% - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 5,4% - for the party “Gromadyanska pozytsiya”;

  • 5,3% - for Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna”;

  • 3,9% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 3,5% - for the Block Obiyednanyh syl (Partiya regioniv, Partiya rozvytku Ukrainy, “Ukraina – Vpered!”, Komunistychna partiya Ukrainy, Socialistychna partiya Ukrainy);

  • 1,9% - for the party “Samopomich”;

  • 1,0% - for the party “Pravyi sektor”;

  • 2,6%  - for all other parties in total;

  • 2,4%  would spoil the ballot;

  • 15,9% decided not to participate;

  • 30,3% have not decided yet for whom to vote.

Consequently, if the blocks of parties were allowed to participate, 52% of voters would come and their votes would be distributed in the following way:

  • 34,1% - for the Block of P. Poroshenko;

  • 20,1% - for the Radical party of O. Lyashko;

  • 10,5% - for the party “Gromadyanska pozyciya”;

  • 10,2% - for Ukrainian union "Batkivshchyna”;

  • 7,7% - for the Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 6,9% - for the Block Obiyednanyh syl (Partiya regioniv, Partiya rozvytku Ukrainy, “Ukraina – Vpered!”, Komunistychna partiya Ukrainy, Socialistychna partiya Ukrainy);

  • 3,6% - for the party “Samopomich”;

  • 2,0% - for the party “Pravyi sektor”;

  • 5,0%  - for all other parties in total.

 Addition

Question about the nominal parliamentary elections was stated as follows:

Would you participate in the elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, if they took place the next Sunday? IF “YES”Who would you vote for, if there were the following partie sin the ballot?

  % of the whole population aged 18 and above % of those, who wants to participate
Political party UU “Batkivshchyna” (Yuliya Tymoshenko, Arseniyi Yatseniuk) 5.7 10.0
Political party UU “Svoboda” (Oled Tyagnybok) 3.9 6.9
Political party «Gromadyanska pozytsiya» (Anatoliyi Grytsenko) 5.2 9.2
Political party «Demokratychnyi aliyans» (Vasyl Gatsko) 0.3 0.5
Komunistychna partiya Ukrainy (Petro Symonenko) 2.2 3.9
Political party «Obiyednannya Samopomich» (Andriyi Sadovyi) 1.6 2.7
Political party «Nove jyttya» (Lesya Orobets) 0.3 0.5
Partiya regioniv (Oleksandr Yefryemov) 1.3 2.2
Political party «Solidarnist» (Petro Poroshenko) 16.1 28.5
Political party «Pravyi sektor» (Dmytro Yarosh) 1.0 1.8
Obiyednannya «Kolo narodnoi doviry» (Olga Bogomolets) 0.5 0.9
Radical party of O. Lyashko 9.4 16.5
Political party «Tretya Ukrainska Respublika» (Yuriyi Lutsenko) 0.5 0.8
Political party «Sylna Ukraina» (Sergii Tigipko) 2.7 4.7
Socialistychna partiya Ukrainy (Mykola Rudkovskiyi) 0.3 0.4
Political party «Ukraina - Vpered!» (Nataliya Korolevska) 0.6 1.1
Political party «UDAR of Vitalii Klychko» 4.1 7.2
Ukrainian public moement «Ukrainskiyi vybir» (Victor Medvedchuk) 0.3 0.4
Block of Kolomoiskyi «Ulraina maibutnyogo» 0.2 0.3
Another party 0.9 1.5
WILL SPOIL THE BALLOT 2.2 ---
WILL NOT PARTICIPATE 16.4 ---
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 24.9 ---

 Differentiation by regions[1]

(% of the population of region aged 18 and above)

  West Center South East
Political party UU “Batkivshchyna” (Yuliya Tymoshenko, Arseniyi Yatseniuk) 8.2 9.5 2.2 1.1
Political party UU “Svoboda” (Oled Tyagnybok) 6.0 5.7 2.0 1.1
Political party «Gromadyanska pozytsiya» (Anatoliyi Grytsenko) 7.9 3.5 4.8 5.2
Political party «Demokratychnyi aliyans» (Vasyl Gatsko) 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2
Komunistychna partiya Ukrainy (Petro Symonenko) 0.6 2.2 4.4 1.6
Political party «Obiyednannya Samopomich» (Andriyi Sadovyi) 4.7 1.4 0.0 0.0
Political party «Nove jyttya» (Lesya Orobets) 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.2
Partiya regioniv (Oleksandr Yefryemov) 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.1
Political party «Solidarnist» (Petro Poroshenko) 16.3 21.9 13.1 10.8
Political party «Pravyi sektor» (Dmytro Yarosh) 1.7 1.1 1.1 0.0
Obiyednannya «Kolo narodnoi doviry» (Olga Bogomolets) 0.4 0.3 1.1 0.2
Radical party of O. Lyashko 17.2 11.7 5.5 1.8
Political party «Tretya Ukrainska Respublika» (Yuriyi Lutsenko) 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.2
Political party «Sylna Ukraina» (Sergii Tigipko) 0.6 0.8 3.5 6.5
Socialistychna partiya Ukrainy (Mykola Rudkovskiyi) 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.0
Political party «Ukraina - Vpered!» (Nataliya Korolevska) 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5
Political party «UDAR of Vitalii Klychko» 4.5 5.2 3.3 2.7
Ukrainian public moement «Ukrainskiyi vybir» (Victor Medvedchuk) 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.2
Block of Kolomoiskyi «Ulraina maibutnyogo» 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0
Another party 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.2
WILL SPOIL THE BALLOT 1.5 1.6 4.6 1.3
WILL NOT PARTICIPATE 2.8 7.3 22.1 37.7
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 23.4 25.6 26.9 23.3

Question about the nominal parliamentary elections, where the participation of blocks of parties is allowed, was stated as follows:

Who would you vote for if the list was like this one?

  % of the whole population aged 18 and above % of those, who wants to participate
Political party UU “Batkivshchyna” (Yuliya Tymoshenko, Arseniyi Yatseniuk) 5.3 10.2
Political party UU “Svoboda” (Oled Tyagnybok) 3.9 7.7
Political party «Gromadyanska pozytsiya» (Anatoliyi Grytsenko) 5.4 10.5
Political party «Demokratychnyi aliyans» (Vasyl Gatsko) 0.3 0.5
Political party «Obiyednannya Samopomich» (Andriyi Sadovyi) 1.9 3.6
Political party «Nove jyttya» (Lesya Orobets) 0.5 0.9
Block Obiyednanyh syl (Partiya regioniv, Partiya rozvytku Ukrainy, “Ukraina – Vpered!”, Komunistychna partiya Ukrainy, Socialistychna partiya Ukrainy 3.5 6.9
Block of P. Poroshenko (“UDAR”, “Solidarnist”, “Tretya Ukrainska Respublika”) 17.5 34.1
Political party «Pravyi sektor» (Dmytro Yarosh) 1.0 2.0
Radical party of O. Lyashko 10.4 20.1
Ukrainian public moement «Ukrainskiyi vybir» (Victor Medvedchuk) 0.3 0.6
Block of Ihor Kolomoyiskiyi (Block of Ihor Kolomoyiskiyi, Political party «Sylna Ukraina» (Sergii Tigipko)) 0.8 1.5
Another party 0.8 1.6
WILL SPOIL THE BALLOT 2.4 ---
WILL NOT PARTICIPATE 15.9 ---
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 30.3 ---

 

Differentiation by regions

(% of the population of region aged 18 and above)

  West Center South East
Political party UU “Batkivshchyna” (Yuliya Tymoshenko, Arseniyi Yatseniuk) 7.7 8.5 2.8 0.5
Political party UU “Svoboda” (Oled Tyagnybok) 5.4 6.6 1.5 1.2
Political party «Gromadyanska pozytsiya» (Anatoliyi Grytsenko) 8.4 3.2 5.4 5.3
Political party «Demokratychnyi aliyans» (Vasyl Gatsko) 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2
Political party «Obiyednannya Samopomich» (Andriyi Sadovyi) 4.9 1.9 0.2 0.2
Political party «Nove jyttya» (Lesya Orobets) 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.9
Block Obiyednanyh syl (Partiya regioniv, Partiya rozvytku Ukrainy, “Ukraina – Vpered!”, Komunistychna partiya Ukrainy, Socialistychna partiya Ukrainy 0.9 1.6 4.8 7.9
Block of P. Poroshenko (“UDAR”, “Solidarnist”, “Tretya Ukrainska Respublika”) 22.2 26.6 11.3 6.0
Political party «Pravyi sektor» (Dmytro Yarosh) 1.1 1.6 1.1 0.0
Radical party of O. Lyashko 18.1 12.3 6.1 3.7
Ukrainian public moement «Ukrainskiyi vybir» (Victor Medvedchuk) 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.5
Block of Ihor Kolomoyiskiyi (Block of Ihor Kolomoyiskiyi, Political party «Sylna Ukraina» (Sergii Tigipko)) 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.5
Another party 1.5 0.6 0.9 0.2
WILL SPOIL THE BALLOT 1.5 1.4 5.0 1.9
WILL NOT PARTICIPATE 3.2 7.0 22.9 34.8
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 23.7 27.5 35.3 36.2


[1]Western macroregion: Volynska, Rivnenska, Lvivska, Ivano-Frankivska, Ternopilska, Zakarpatska, Khmelnytska, Chernivetska oblasts (24% of voters);

 Central macroregion: Vinnytska, Zhytomyrska, Sumska, Chernihivska, Poltavska, Kirovohradska, Cherkaska, Kyivska oblasts, Kyiv (32% of voters);

 Southern macroregion: Dnipropetrovska, Zaporizhska, Mykolaivska, Khersonska, Odesska oblasts (23% of voters);

 Eastern macroregion: Donetska, Luhanska, Kharkivska oblasts (22% of voters).

 


3.9.2014
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