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Changes in the attitude of Ukrainians towards Russia and in the attitude of Russians towards Ukraine

Press-release contains the results of the conjoint project of Kiev International Institute of Sociology andRussian non-governmental research organization Levada Center.

Kiev International Institute of Sociology together with the Fund “Democratic Initiatives in honour of Ilko Kucheriv” conducted thenationwide public opinion survey in a periodfrom 12th to 21th of September, 2014. Data was collected from 2035 respondents living in 110 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except Luhansk and Crimea) through the method of personal interview. The sample was random with quota selection at the last stage and  is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

It was impossible to conduct the survey in Luhansk region because of the military operations and transportation problems. Interviews, which should have been conducted in the Luhansk region, were held in the Donetsk region as its population in the electoral and other political orientations is the least different from the population of Luhansk region (the survey was conducted both on the territories which are under control of Ukraine and the territories which are not).

Statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed:
3.3% — for indicators close to 50%;
2,8% — for indicators close to 25%;
2,0% — for indicators close to 10%;
1,4% — for indicators close to 5%.

Levada Center conducted the similar poll in a period from 19thto 22th of September, 2014, the sample is representative for the population of Russia with 1600 respondents aged 18 and above in 130 settlements in 45 regions of Russia. Statistical sample error does not exceed 3,4%. 

 

The Ukrainians were asked “What is your general attitude towards Russia now?”, while the Russians were provided with the question “What is your general attitude towards Ukraine now?”.

  • The mutual attitude got worse over the past three months. However, the attitude of Ukrainians to Russia is still more positive than the attitude of Russians to Ukraine. Comparing to the May survey the amount of positively minded Ukrainians fell slightly (from 52% in May to 48%  in September). The proportion of negatively minded Ukrainians increased also slightly (from 38% to 41%).

  • Such deterioration in the attitude to Russia took place not in all regions of Ukraine. The amount of positively minded Ukrainians increased in the Eastern region (from 77% in May to 83% in September). In other regions, the percentage of the population with the positive attitude to Russia decreased indeed: in the South - from 65% to 59%, in the Central region - from 43% to 32%, in the Western region - from 30% to 25%.

  • In Russia the amount of positively minded people decreased slightly: from 35% in May to 32% in September. At the same time the amount of negatively minded Russians increased significantly - from 49% to 55%.


Picture
 1. The dynamics of the positive attitude of Ukrainians to Russia and of Russians to Ukraine


The researchers took interest not only in the attitude to the countries in general, but also separately in the attitude to the members of the country and to its government.

  • 74% of Ukrainians have generally positive attitude to the Russians, but this indicator fell slightly over the last 4 months (from 80% in May), the amount of negatively minded Ukrainian in this period increased from 14% to 18%.

  •  60% of Russians have generally positive attitude to the Ukrainians while 26% - generally negative. The attitude of Russians has changed significantly: the amount of positively minded people decreased from 81% in May to 60% in September, the amount of negatively minded in the same period increased from 12% to 26%.

  • Rather opposite situation is observed in the attitudes of Ukrainians to the Russian government and of Russians to the Ukrainian one. 69% of the population of Ukraine have generally negative attitude to the Russian government (59% - very negative, 10% - rather negative), 21% have generally good attitude (10% has not decided).

  •  The attitude of Russians to the Ukrainian government is even worse: 86% have generally negative attitude (47% - very negative, 39% - rather negative), 8% have generally good attitude (6% have not decided).

 

Picture 2. Regional differentiation in the attitude of the population of Ukraine to Russia, the Russians and the Russian government - the percentage of those who has a generally good attitude (the sum of percent from the answers “good” and “very good”).





  • Despite the significant regional differentiation (Picture 2), the majority in all regions of Ukraine has  positive attitude to the Russians. In the western region this attitude is peculiar for 66% of the population, in the Central Region – for 63%, in the South – for 81%, in East – for approximately 91%.

  • There is a significant regional differentiation in the attitude of Ukrainians to the Russian government. Only 2% of the population of the Western region has positive attitude (negative attitude is peculiar for 95%), 3% in the Central region (negative attitude is peculiar for 85%), 16% in the South region (negative attitude is peculiar for 67,5%). Only in the Eastern region more than a half of the population (69%) have a positive attitude to the Russian government (and 29% has negative).

 

The dynamics of the Russians and the Ukrainians answers to the question "How would you want the relations between Ukraine and Russia to be?"

  • Comparing to the May data, the amount of people who wants the borders between Ukraine and Russia to be closed increased significantly (from 32% in May to 45% in September); in Russia data remains almost unchangeable (28% in May, 26% in September).

  •  The amount of people who wants the relations to be independent and friendly without the borders, visa and customs increased by 8% (from 54% to 62%) in Russia and decreased by 10% (from 54% to 44%) in Ukraine.

  •  7% of Russians (12% in May) and 5% of Ukrainians (8% in May) support the unification of two countries: the percentage decreased in both countries. The largest amount of unification supporters in Ukraine is in Eastern region, but even so this amount became two times lower comparing to the May data (from 26% to 13%). Only 5% supports the unification in the South of Ukraine. The lowest percentage of unification supporters is in the Western (0%) and Central (2%) regions.

 

Picture 3. How would you want the relations between Ukraine and Russia to be?



* The line “Ukraine and Russia should be independent” is a sum of two columns from the table 6 – those, who supports independence with borders and customs and those, who supports independence but without borders and customs (see in the tables below).

Tables

Table 1.  What is you general attitude towards Ukraine/ Russia now?

IN UKRAINE ATTITUDE TOWARDS RUSSIA is, % IN RUSSIA ATTTITUDE TOWARDS UKRAINE is, %
Date verygood/rather good rather bad/very bad DIFFICULT TO ANSWER TOTAL Date verygood/rather good rather bad/very bad DIFFICULT TO ANSWER TOTAL
Apr.08 88 7 5 100 Mar.08 55 33 12 100
Sep.08 88 9 3 100 Sep.08 38 53 10 100
Feb.09 91 5 4 100 Jan.09 29 62 10 100
May.09 93 4 3 100 May.09 33 56 11 100
Oct.09 92 6 3 100 Sep.09 46 44 10 100
Mar.10 90 6 4 100 Mar.10 59 29 12 100
Jun.10 92 6 3 100 Jul.10 70 22 9 100
Oct.10 93 4 3 100 Oct.10 67 21 12 100
Nov.11 80 13 7 100 Sep.11 68 23 9 100
Feb.12 85 9 6 100 Jan.12 64 25 12 100
Sep.12 83 11 6 100 Sep.12 74 17 10 100
Feb.13 85 8 7 100 Feb.13 69 21 9 100
May.13 81 10 9 100 May.13 72 18 9 100
Nov.13 82 10 8 100 Sep.13 69 22 8 100
Feb.14 78 13 9 100 Jan.14 66 26 9 100
May.14 52 38 10 100 May.14 35 49 17 100
Sep.14 48 41 11 100 Sep.14 32 55 13 100

 

Table 2. The responses for 3 questions in Russia and Ukraine:

What is your general attitude to Russia/ Ukraine now? 

What is your general attitude to the Russians (the population of Russia)/Ukrainians (the population of Ukraine)? 

What is your general attitude to the government of Russia/ Ukraine? 

 

What is your general attitude to … Russia Ukraine the Russians (the population of Russia) the Ukrainians (the population of Ukraine) the Russian government the Ukrainian government
  In Ukraine, % In Russia, % In Ukraine, % In Russia,        % In Ukraine,     % In Russia,        %
Very good 14.4 2.8 20.9 8.7 9.2 0.8
Rather good 33.7 29.2 53.1 51.6 11.6 6.9
Rather bad 22.6 39.4 12.1 21.3 10.3 38.8
Very bad 18.6 15.9 5.6 4.7 58.7 47.2
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 10.6 12.7 8.3 13.8 10.3 6.3
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

Table 3. What is your general attitude to Russia? By macroregions:

 

  Western Central South Eastern (with Donbas) Ukraine in general
Very good 2.9 1.9 19.0 38.6 14.4
Rather good 22.3 30.0 39.8 44.4 33.7
Rather bad 35.6 28.3 17.7 6.2 22.6
Very bad 32.1 25.6 9.1 4.7 18.7
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 7.1 14.2 14.4 6.0 10.7
  100 100 100 100 100

 

Table 4.  What is your general attitude to the Russians (the population of Russia? By macroregions:

  Western Central South Eastern (with Donbas) Ukraine in general
Very good 7.7 9.2 29.6 41.9 20.9
Rather good 57.9 54.0 51.0 49.0 53.1
Rather bad 21.3 16.2 7.3 1.9 12.1
Very bad 6.7 9.2 2.2 2.8 5.6
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 6.5 11.4 9.9 4.3 8.3
  100 100 100 100 100

 

Table 5.  What is your general attitude to the Russian government? By macroregions:

  Western Central South Eastern (with Donbas) Ukraine in general
Very good 1.0 0.3 4.6 34.0 9.2
Rather good 0.8 2.5 11.3 35.1 11.5
Rather bad 9.6 8.8 20.1 3.7 10.3
Very bad 85.0 81.7 48.2 10.5 58.7
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER 3.5 6.6 15.7 16.8 10.2
  100 100 100 100 100

 

Table 6. Howwould you want the relations between Ukraine and Russia to be?

  IN UKRAINE
Date They should be the same as with other countries - with closed borders, visa and customs Ukraine and Russia should be independent but with friendly relations - with no visa, no customs and with open borders Ukraine and Russia should be united in one country DIFFICULT TO ANSWER TOGETHER
Apr.08 10 67 20 3 100
Sep.08 17 66 16 2 100
Feb.09 8 68 23 1 100
May.09 10 65 23 2 100
Oct.09 11 67 19 3 100
Mar.10 11 67 19 3 100
Jun.10 12 70 16 2 100
Oct.10 10 67 20 2 100
Nov.11 13 67 16 1 100
Feb.12 13 69 16 2 100
Sep.12 11 72 14 3 100
Feb.13 13 68 16 3 100
May.13 11 69 14 5 100
Nov.13 12 73 9 6 100
Feb.14 15 68 12 5 100
May.14 32 54 8 5 100
Sep.14 45 44 5 6 100

                                                                                                                                

 

  IN RUSSIA
Date  They should be the same as with other countries - with closed borders, visa and customs Ukraine and Russia should be independent but with friendly relations - with no visa, no customs and with open borders Ukraine and Russia should be united in one country DIFFICULT TO ANSWER TOGETHER
Apr.08 19  56  19  100
Sep.08 24  52  13  11  100
Feb.09 29  51  12  100
May.09 25  55  14  100
Oct.09 25  55  13  100
Mar.10 25  55  14  100
Jun.10 17  64  13  100
Oct.10 16  60  18  100
Nov.11 16 63 14 6 100
Feb.12 16 61 16 8 100
Sep.12 14 60 20 6 100
Feb.13 13 64 18 6 100
May.13 19 58 15 8 100
Nov.13 23 55 16 6 100
Feb.14 19 59 16 6 100
May.14 28 54 12 6 100
Sep.14 26 62 7 5 100

 

 Table 3. How would you want the relations between Ukraine and Russia to be? By macroregions:

 

  They should be the same as with other countries - with closed borders, visa and customs Ukraine and Russia should be independent but with friendly relations - with no visa, no customs and with open borders Ukraine and Russia should be united in one country DTA TOGETHER
Western 71.3 23.1 0.2 4.4 100
Central 57.3 33.2 1.9 7.4 100
South 35.5 46.8 4.9 12.6 100
Eastern 8.4 77.7 13.3 0.6 100

6.10.2014
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