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Electoral intentions of voters in the elections to Verkhovna Rada

On October 9 – 18, 2014 Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS)together with Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation conducted the nationwide public opinion survey. Data were collected from 2025respondents,living in 110 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except Crimea), through the method of personal interview.Sample was random,4-staged with quota selection at the last stage and is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk region survey was conducted only on the territories which are under control of Ukraine, in Donetsk region it was conducted both on territories which are under control of Ukraine and which are not. Data about ratings are presented here only for the territories which are under Ukrainian control (1855 respondents).

Statistical sample error for 1855 respondents (with probability of 0.95 and design-effect of 1.5) does not exceed:
3.
4% — for indicators close to 50%;
3,1% — for indicators close to 25%;
2,0% — for indicators close to 10%;
1,
5% — for indicators close to 5%.

 

In the parliamentary elections to be held on October 26, 2014:  55% of respondents definitely will vote, 24% do not exclude the possibility that they will vote (“rather yes” – 19%, “rather no” – 5%), 20% of respondents definitely will not come.

 

Respondents aged 18 and above, living on the territories which are under the control of Ukraine, would vote in the following way:

  • Party “Block of Petro Poroshenko” – 16,5%

  • Radical party of Oleg Lyashko – 7,0%

  • Political party “Narodnyi front” – 5,9%

  • Political party “Obiednannya Samopomich” – 4,6%

  • Political party “Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna” – 4,0%

  • Political party “Oppozytsiynyi block” – 3,2%

  • Party of Serhii Tigipko “Sylna Ukraina” – 3,0%

  • Political party “Gromadyanska pozytsiya (Anatoliy Grytsenko)” – 2,6%

  • Communist party of Ukraine – 2,2%

  • Political party “Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” – 1,7%

  • Political party “Pravyi sector” – 1,0%

  • All other parties in total – 2,5%

  • WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT – 1,3%

  • WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE – 17,2%

  • DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/ DO NOT KNOW – 27,3%

 

Therefore, ifthose, who has not decided whom to vote for, did not come to the elections, about 54% of  voters would participate and their votes would be distributed in the following way:

  • Party “Block of Petro Poroshenko” – 30,4%

  • Radical party of Oleg Lyashko – 12,9%

  • Political party “Narodnyi front” – 10,8%

  • Political party “Obiednannya Samopomich” – 8,5%

  • Political party “Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna” – 7,5%

  • Political party “Oppozytsiynyi block” – 5,9%

  • Party of Serhii Tigipko “Sylna Ukraina” – 5,6%

  • Political party “Gromadyanska pozytsiya (Anatoliy Grytsenko)” – 4,8%

  • Communist party of Ukraine – 4,1%

  • Political party “Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” – 3,1%

  • Political party “Pravyi sector” – 1,9%

  • Political party “Zastup” – 1,4%

  • All other parties in total – 3,2%

 

Regional differentiation

Voters support for parties, that are most likely to go to Parliament, is distributed among all citizens living in the territory controlled by Ukraine:

  • In the Western region leading parties are Block of Petro Poroshenko (25%), party “Narodnyi front” (11%), Radical party of Oleg Lyashko (10%), political party “Union “Samopomich” (10%), Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna” (6%), political party “Gromadyanska pozytsiya (A. Grytsenko)” (4%) and “Svoboda” (3%). All other parties received less than 2%.

  • In the Central region leading parties are almost the same: Block  of Petro Poroshenko (16%), Radical party of Oleg Lyashko (8%), party “Narodnyi front” (6%), political party “Union “Samopomich” (5%), Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna” (4%) and political party “Gromadyanska pozytsiya (A. Grytsenko)” (3%). All other parties received less than 2%.

  • In the South region leader of the race remains the same - Block of Petro Poroshenko (15%), but other parties are in different order: party of Serhii Tigipko “Sylna Ukraina” (8%), Radical party of Oleg Lyashko (5%), Oppozytsiynyi block (4,5%), and three parties with 4%: party “Narodnyi front”, political party “Union “Samopomich”, Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna”. In the end there is the Communist party of Ukraine (a bit more than 2%). All other parties received less than 2%.

  • In the Eastern region the leading party is “Oppozytsiynyi block” (10%), then there are Block of Petro Poroshenko (8%), Communist party (more than 5%) and party of Serhii Tigipko “Sylna Ukraina” (3%). All other parties received less than 2%.

ADDITION

Would you vote in the elections to Verkhovna Rada to be held on October 26, 2014?

Definitely yes 54.6
Rather yes 18.8
Rather no 4.8
Definitely no  20.4
DIFFICULT TO SAY 1.5

 

Whom would you vote for, if you took part in the elections?

Results for the territories which are under control of Ukraine.

Партії та блоки % of all respondents % of those, who has already decided whom to vote for and will come to the elections
Party “Block of Petro Poroshenko ” 16.5 30.4
Radical party of Oleg Lyashko 7.0 12.9
Political party “Narodnyi front” 5.9 10.8
Political party “Obiednannya Samopomich” 4.6 8.5
Political party “Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna” 4.0 7.5
Political party “Oppozytsiynyi block” 3.2 5.9
Party of Serhii Tigipko “Sylna Ukraina” 3.0 5.6
Political party “Gromadyanska pozytsiya (Anatoliy Grytsenko)” 2.6 4.8
Communist party of Ukraine 2.2 4.1
Political party “Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” 1.7 3.1
Political party “Pravyi sector” 1.0 1.9
Political party “Zastup” 0.8 1.4
Party “Solidarnist zhinok Ukrainy” 0.3 0.6
Political party “Internet partiya Ukrainy” 0.3 0.5
Political union “Ukraina – yedyna kraina” 0.2 0.4
Ukrainian party “Zelena planeta” 0.2 0.4
Political party “Nova polityka” 0.2 0.3
Political party “Yedyna kraina” 0.2 0.3
Political party “5.10” 0.1 0.2
Political party “Ukraina maibutnyogo” 0.1 0.2
Party “Vidrodzhennya” 0.1 0.1
Political party “National democratic party of Ukraine” 0.1 0.1
Political party “Gromadyanskiy ruh Ukrainy” 0.1 0.1
Political party “Syla liudey” 0.0 0.0
Liberal party of Ukraine 0.0 0.0
Green party of Ukraine 0.0 0.0
Political party “Syla ta chest” 0.0 0.0
Political party “Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists” 0.0 0.0
Political party “Block livyh syl Ukrainy” 0.0 0.0
WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT 1.3 -
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE 17.2 -
DIFFICULT TO SAY/ DO NOT KNOW 27.3 -
TOTAL 100 100

 
Regional differentiation

Voters support is distributed among all citizens living in the territory controlled by Ukraine:

  Western Central South Eastern
Party “ Block  of Petro Poroshenko ” 24.6 16.0 14.9 7.7
Radical party of Oleg Lyashko 10.3 8.0 5.4 2.6
Political party “Narodnyi front” 10.7 5.6 4.3 1.6
Political party “Obiednannya Samopomich” 8.1 4.7 3.7 0.3
Political party “Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna” 5.6 3.9 4.3 1.6
Political party “Oppozytsiynyi block” 0.9 0.7 4.5 9.6
Party of Serhii Tigipko “Sylna Ukraina” 0.6 1.3 7.8 2.9
Political party “Gromadyanska pozytsiya (Anatoliy Grytsenko)” 4.1 3.1 1.9 0.3
Communist party of Ukraine 0.6 1.6 2.4 5.4
Political party “Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” 3.2 1.8 0.4 1.0
Political party “Pravyi sector” 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.0
Political party “Zastup” 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.0
Party “Solidarnist jinok Ukrainy” 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.0
Political party “Internet partiya Ukrainy” 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0
Political union “Ukraina – yedyna kraina” 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0
Ukrainian party “Zelena planeta” 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0
Political party “Nova polityka” 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0
Political party “Yedyna kraina” 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0
Political party “5.10” 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0
Political party “Ukraina maibutnyogo” 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0
Party “Vidrodzhennya” 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Political party “National democratic party of Ukraine” 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Political party “Gromadyanskiy ruh Ukrainy” 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT 0.0 2.0 1.9 1.3
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE 7.9 14.7 18.8 33.9
DIFFICULT TO SAY/ DO NOT KNOW 18.4 34.8 24.4 30.0
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

 

Western macroregion: Volynska, Rivnenska, Lvivska, Ivano-Frankivska, Ternopilska, Zakarpatska, Khmelnytska, Chernivetska oblasts (regions); 24% of voters.

Central macroregion: Vinnytska, Zhytomyrska, Sumska, Chernihivska, Poltavska, Kirovohradska, Cherkaska, Kyivska oblasts (regions), Kyiv; 32% of voters.

Southern macroregion: Dnipropetrovska, Zaporizhska, Mykolaivska, Khersonska, Odesska oblasts (regions); 23% of voters.

Eastern macroregion: Donetska, Luhanska, Kharkivska oblasts (regions); 22% of voters.


22.10.2014
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