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Dynamic of attitudes of Ukraine to opinion polls, December 2014

From December 5 to December 15, 2014 the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted All–Ukrainian poll of public opinion. There were interviewed 2011 respondents aged 18 and older, living in all regions of Ukraine (including Kiev), except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Survey was conducted only in areas controlled by Ukraine in Lugansk region. Survey was conducted in both areas of Donetsk region: territories controlled by Ukraine and territories that are not controlled by Ukraine. The selection is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 years and older.

The statistical error of selection (with probability 0.95 and at design–effect 1.5) doesn't exceed the following: 3.5% for indicators which are close to 50%, 2,8% – for indicators which are close to 25%, 2,0% – for indicators which are close to 10%, 1.4%  – close to 5%.

Questions about the attitude of the Ukrainian population to the results of opinion polls asked in 2002, 2004, 2009, 2012 and 2013. The December 2014 survey showed that the level of distrust in public opinion research decreased and balance of trust and distrust increased.

In particular, the survey showed that:

• The level of confidence to the results of sociological surveys of sociological organizations that have  already been working and publish the result of their searches among the population of Ukraine for 11 years, first significantly increased from 36% in 2002 to 47% in 2004 and then remained stable at approximately the same level with fluctuations within the error of selection (some increasing to 51% was only in 2012, perhaps because the study was conducted immediately after the parliamentary election in which data of exit polls and elections were close to each other). Confidence levels this year haven’t changed compared to November 2013 (46%). The level of trust in opinion polls is 48% in December 2014. But the share of those who don’t trust decreased significantly – from 15% to 9%, so the balance of trust and distrust in the sociological centers (the percentage of those who trust minus the percentage who don’t trust) significantly increased – was + 31% in November 2013, now + 39% (48% minus 9%).

• By gender difference is little, although men (50%) trust bit more in sociological research than women (47%).

• By age also no significant differences concerning confidence to sociological researches – the level of trust in the category of 60-69 years (54%) is a little higher than it is in other age groups.

• BY REGION: the highest level of confidence in the results of sociological surveys recorded in the Western region (59%), the second – by the level of trust – Central region (51%). The lowest level of confidence is in the Eastern region (39%), it is close to South region – 42%.

Addition

 

By years:

Do you trust the results of opinion polls of organizations which have long been working and publish their research results? % of respondents
  2002 2004 2009 2012 2013 2014
Yes 36 47 45 51 46 48
It is difficult to say 32 37 35 34 37 40
No 29 13 14 13 15 9
Refusal to answer the question 3 3 6 2 2 3


By gender:

Do you trust the results of opinion polls of organizations which have long been working and publish their research results? % of respondents
  men women  
Yes 49.7% 47.0%  
It is difficult to say 38.5% 40.4%  
No 9.2% 9.2%  
Refusal to answer the question 2.7% 3.4%  


By ages:

Do you trust the results of opinion polls of organizations which have long been working and publish their research results? % of respondents
  18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70 +
Yes 49.4% 49.0% 45.6% 46.9% 54.2% 44.9%
It is difficult to say 40.8% 37.2% 42.6% 38.4% 34.9% 42.8%
No 7.7% 11.3% 7.9% 11.6% 8.4% 7.8%
Refusal to answer the question 2.1% 2.5% 3.9% 3.1% 2.5% 4.6%

By regions:

Do you trust the results of opinion polls of organizations which have long been working and publish their research results? % of respondents
  Western Central Southern Eastern (with Donbas)
Yes 58.5% 51.1% 41.8% 39.3%
It is difficult to say 32.7% 39.7% 46.0% 40.4%
No 7.7% 7.4% 10.3% 12.0%
Refusal to answer the question 1.0% 1.8% 2.0% 8.2%

23.12.2014
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