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The dynamics of the positive attitude of the population of Ukraine to Russia and the Russian population to Ukraine ("the end of the unrequited love of Ukrainians to Russia")

Press Release contains the results of the joint project of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology and Russian non-governmental research organization, "Levada Center."

This year, from 11 to 21 of September Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has conducted a nationwide opinion poll. 2041 respondents above 18 years old, who live in 108 settlements all over Ukraine (except Crimea), selected by stochastic sample were interviewed by the method of personal interview.

In Lugansk and Donetsk region the research was conducted only on territories which are under control of Ukrainian government, it was conducted in Donetsk too, which is not under Ukrainian control.

Statistical sampling error (with probability 0.95 and with design effect 1.5) not more than:

3,3%— for indicators which are close to 50%,

2,8% — for indicators which are close to 25%,

2,0% — for indicators which are close to 10%,

1,4% — for indicators which are close to 5%.

"Levada-center" has conducted a survey on a representative sample to Russia from 22 to 25 May 2015; 1602 respondents aged 18 and older were interviewed in 130 settlements of 45 regions of the country.

Statistical data error does not exceed 3.4%.

  • The number of Ukrainian people who have positive attitude towards Russia has become equal to the number of Russian who are positively related to Ukraine for the first time of observations. In all previous studies Ukrainians had better attitude to Russia than Russians to Ukraine.

  • During the research, as it was before, Ukrainians were asked the question "What is your general attitude to Russia?", and Russians "What is your general attitude to Ukraine?"

  • The attitude of Ukrainians to Russia and Russians toward Ukraine a little improved over the past six months. At the same time in Russia there was a significant increase (7%), while in Ukraine a little, 4%, but statistically significant. Number of those who have a positive attitude to Russia in Ukraine is 34% (in May was 30%), in Russia to Ukraine - 33% (in May was 26%). In other words there is no longer statistically significant difference between the attitudes of residents of the two countries to Ukraine and Russia, it is almost equal.

The situation of changing the attitude of the Russian population toward Ukraine commented the director of the “Levada Center”, Alexei Grazhdankin:

“With regard to the dynamics of relations toward Ukraine among the population of Russia - I would explain it by the fact that the focus of public attention in Russia is shifting from problems with Ukraine on a wide range of issues, and it provides an incentive for the restoration of traditionally friendly attitude to the neighboring country. Yes, we understand that "attitude to Ukraine" in this issue - it is 90% attitude towards the policy of the Ukrainian leadership, and since the flow of news about the victims of the bloody conflict in the Donbas (responsibility for the occurrence of which still lies on the Kyiv authorities in the minds of Russians) it has significantly weakened - it also affects the positive trend towards Ukraine”.

  • Bad attitude towards Russia have 53% of Ukrainians (was 56%), negative attitude to Ukraine in Russia have 56% (was 59%). In other words extent of the negative attitude of the residents of both countries has declined.

  • Some improvement of relations with Russia was due to the East and South of Ukraine. Thus, a significant improvement in relations with Russia, compared with May, is observed in the East (41% in May to 60% in September) and the Southern region (from 43% in May to 48% in September). In the Western region the attitude to Russia have declined slightly (from 16% to 13%), the situation in the Center has not changed (23%).

Graph 1. The dynamics of the positive attitude of the population of Ukraine to Russia and the Russian population to Ukraine (% of those whose attitude to other country is good and very good)




The dynamics of the answers on the question "Which relationship would you like to see between Ukraine and Russia?"

  • Compared with May, the situation in Ukraine is stable: the number of those who wish closed borders with Russia and customs is 46%, friendly relations between the two independent countries with open borders without visas and customs are willing 45%, unite in one state wants 2% of respondents in May as well as in September.
  • In comparison with May, situation in Russia has changed: the number of those who wish to close borders and customs with Ukraine (30% - in May, 25% - in September), increased the number of those who want friendly and independent relations between the two countries with open borders without visas and customs (from 54% in May to 59% in September), the number of those who want union in one state is 8% (was 10%, the difference is not statistically significant).


Graph 2. What kind of relations with Russia Ukrainians want? *


* The line on the graph "Ukraine and Russia should be independent" - is the sum of the first two columns in Table 6, that is, the percentage of those who want independence with borders and customs, and those who want independence, but without borders and customs (see the table below).

TABLES

Table 1. What is your general attitude to Ukraine / Russia?

IN UKRAINE TO RUSSIA relate,% IN RUSSIA TO UKRAINE relate,%
Date Very good/basically good Basically bad/very bad HARD TO SAY TOTAL Date Very good/basically good Basically bad/very bad HARD TO SAY TOTAL
Apr.08 88 7 5 100 Mar.08 55 33 12 100
Sep.08 88 9 3 100 Sep.08 38 53 10 100
Feb.09 91 5 4 100 Jan.09 29 62 10 100
May.09 93 4 3 100 May.09 33 56 11 100
Oct.09 92 6 3 100 Sep.09 46 44 10 100
Mar.10 90 6 4 100 Mar.10 59 29 12 100
Jun.10 92 6 3 100 Jul.10 70 22 9 100
Oct.10 93 4 3 100 Oct.10 67 21 12 100
Nov.11 80 13 7 100 Sep.11 68 23 9 100
Feb.12 85 9 6 100 Jan.12 64 25 12 100
Sep.12 83 11 6 100 Sep.12 74 17 10 100
Feb.13 85 8 7 100 Feb.13 69 21 9 100
May.13 81 10 9 100 May.13 72 18 9 100
Nov.13 82 10 8 100 Sep.13 69 22 8 100
Feb.14 78 13 9 100 Jan.14 66 26 9 100
May.14 52 38 10 100 May.14 35 49 17 100
Sep.14 48 41 11 100 Sep.14 32 55 13 100
Dec.14 37 48 16 100 Jan. 15 24 63 13 100
Feb.15 34 51 15 100 Mar.15 31 56 13 100
May.15 30 56 14 100 May.15 26 59 14 100
Sep.15 34 53 13 100 Sep.15 33 56 11 100

 

Table 2. What is your general attitude to Russia? The distribution of macro-regions of Ukraine

  West Center South East  Ukraine in total
Very good 4 3 10 23 9
Basically good 9 20 38 38 25
Basically bad 23 25 25 16 22
Very bad 55 39 14 10 31
HARD TO SAY 9 14 14 14 13


Table 3. What relations between Ukraine and Russia would you like to see?

  IN UKRAINE
Date Independent, with closed borders and customs Independent and friendly, with open borders and customs, without visas Ukraine and Russia have to unite in one country Hard to say TOTAL
Apr.08 10 67 20 3 100
Sep.08 17 66 16 2 100
Feb.09 8 68 23 1 100
May.09 10 65 23 2 100
Oct.09 11 67 19 3 100
Mar.10 11 67 19 3 100
Jun.10 12 70 16 2 100
Oct.10 10 67 20 2 100
Nov.11 13 67 16 1 100
Feb.12 13 69 16 2 100
Sep.12 11 72 14 3 100
Feb.13 13 68 16 3 100
May.13 11 69 14 5 100
Nov.13 12 73 9 6 100
Feb.14 15 68 12 5 100
May.14 32 54 8 5 100
Sep.14 45 44 5 6 100
Dec.14 50 42 3 5 100
Feb.15 48 43 4 6 100
May.15 45 46 2 7 100
Sep.15 46 45 2 7 100

 

  IN RUSSIA
Date Independent, with closed borders and customs Independent and friendly, with open borders and customs, without visas Ukraine and Russia have to unite in one country Hard to say TOTAL
Mar.08 19  56  19  100
Sep.08 24  52  13  11  100
Jan.09 29  51  12  100
May.09 25  55  14  100
Sep.09 25  55  13  100
Mar.10 25  55  14  100
Jul.10 17  64  13  100
Oct.10 16  60  18  100
Sep.11 16 63 14 6 100
Jan.12 16 61 16 8 100
Sep.12 14 60 20 6 100
Feb.13 13 64 18 6 100
May.13 19 58 15 8 100
Sep.13 23 55 16 6 100
Jan.14 19 59 16 6 100
May.14 28 54 12 6 100
Sep.14 26 62 7 5 100
Jan. 15 32 53 7 8 100
May.15 30 54 10 6 100
Sep.15 25 59 8 7 100

 



[1] A joint project of KIIS and Levada Center began in April 2008, for 7 years conducted more than 20 interviews  in each country's 




5.10.2015
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