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Rating of parties in case of parliamentary elections in February 2016

Press release prepared by Anton Grushetsky

 

If elections to Verkhovna Rada had been held in the middle of February, seven parties would have got enough votes to enter it:

“Blok Petra Poroshenka “Solidarnist`” – 16.6%,

National union “Bat`kivshchyna” – 15.1%,

“Opozytsiinyi blok” – 14.2%,

“Samopomich” – 11.8%,

Radykal`na partiya – 10.3%,

National union “Svoboda” – 6.2%,

“Hromadyans`ka pozytsiya” – 5.3%.

 

In a period of February 5-16, 2016 Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has conducted its own public opinion poll about current ratings of support for political parties in Ukraine. Data were collected from 2020 respondents living in 110 settlements (PSU) in all regions of Ukraine (except the AR of Crimea) through personal interviews. Sample is stochastic and representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk region survey was conducted only on the territories controlled by Ukraine. In Donetsk region survey was conducted both on territories that are and that are temporarily not controlled by Ukraine.

The statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design–effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2.8% – for indicators close to 25%, 2.0% – for indicators close to 10%, 1.4% – for indicators close to 5%, 0.7% - for indicators close to 1 or 99%.

 

The highest support from the adult population on the territories that are now controlled by Ukraine goes to “Blok Petra Poroshenka “Solodarnist`” (6,9% in relation to all respondents), National union “Bat`kivshchyna” (6.3%), and “Opozytsiinyi blok” (5.9%). Somewhat lower support and forth-fifth places go to “Samopomich” (4.9%) and Radykal`na partiya O.Lyashka (4.5%) respectively. Still National union “Svoboda” (2.6%) and “Hromadyans`ka pozytsia” (2.2%) hold high chances to enter the parliament. Also 24.7% has not decided yet, 26.4% will note come to vote (see column 2 in table 1).

If those who have not decided how to vote and those who want to vote against all had not come to the elections, as usual, about 41% of all voters would have come to participate, and their votes would have been distributed as follows (actually, these indicators are the closest to possible results of voting if it had been held in the middle of February).

Amongst those of the adult population on the territories controlled by Ukraine who have decided which party to vote for 16.6% support “Blok Petra Poroshenka “Solodarnist`”, 15.1% - National union “Bat`kivshchyna”, 14,2% - “Opozytsiinyi blok”, 11.8% - “Samopomich”, 10.3% - Radykal`na partiya, 6.2% - National union “Svoboda”, 5.3% - “Hromadyans`ka pozytsia” (see column 3 in table 1).

Table 1

Distribution of answers to the question “If elections to Verkovna Rada were held on the coming Sunday, would you participate? What would be your choice if the following parties participated in elections?” and comparison of data with the results of elections in 2014
 
                        100% in column Results of elections 2014 On the territories controlled by Ukraine
% amongst all respondents % amongst those who decided
1 2 3
Party “Blok Petra Poroshenka “Solidarnist`” (Y. Lutsenko, V. Klichko) 21.8 6.9 16.6
Party " National union “Bat`kivshchyna " (Y.Tymoshenko) 5.7 6.3 15.1
Party " Opozytsiinyi blok " (Y.Boiko, S. Lyovochkin, V. Rabinovych) 9.4 5.9 14.2
Party "Obiyednannya “Samopomich" (A.Sadovyi) 11.0 4.9 11.8
Radykal`na partiya Oleha Lyashka 7.4 4.2 10.3
Party "National union "Svoboda" (O.Tyagnybok) 4.7 2.6 6.2
Party "Hromadyans`ka pozytsia" (A.Grytsenko) 3.1 2.2 5.3
Party UKROP (D. Borysenko, B. Filatov) --- 1.6 3.9
Party "Rukh za ochyshchennya" (M.Saakashvili) --- 1.5 3.6
Party "Natsional`nyi rukh Dmytra Yarosha" --- 1.2 2.9
Party "Narodnyi front" (A.Yatseniuk) 22.1 1.0 2.5
Party "Vidrodzhennya" (V.Bondar) 0.2 0.4 1.0
 Party "Syl`na Ukraina" (S.Tihipko) 3.1 0.4 1.0
Party "Pravyi sektor" (A.Tarasenko) 1.8 0.4 0.9
Agrarna partiya Ukrainy  (V.Skotsyk)   0.4 0.9
Party "Nova derzhava" (P.Symonenko)* 3.9 0.3 0.8
Partiya prostykh lyudei Sergiya Kaplina   0.3 0.6
Party "Syla lyudei" (O.Solontai) 0.1 0.2 0.6
Party "Nash krai" (co-chairs: O. Mazurchak, O.Feldman, A.Kisse, S.Kaltsev, Y. Hranaturov) --- 0.2 0.5
Party "Narodnyi control`" (D.Dobrodomov) --- 0.1 0.4
Party "Demokratychnyi alians" (V.Gatsko) --- 0.0 0.0
For another party 5.5 0.5 1.2
WOULD CROSS OUT ALL PARTIES IN A BALLOT / WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT --- 7.6 ---
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE --- 26.4 ---
DIFFICULT TO SAY --- 24.7 ---

* For 2014 results are for Communist party.

 

Change of party ratings comparing to elections in 2014

Comparing to the results of elections in 2014, in the rating of parties amongst the population of the territories now controlled by Ukraine the biggest change occurred in the support rate of “Narodnyi front” – it fell from 22.1% to 2.5%, as for February 2016 this party does not get into the parliament. Support rate of “Blok Petra Poroshenka “Solidarnist`” also fell significantly – from 21.8% to 16.6%.

Support rate of “Samopomich” remains virtually unchanged – 11% in 2014 and 11.8% in the middle of February 2016.

Support rate of some other parties has grown instead: of National union “Bat`kivshchyna” – from 5.7% to 15.1%, of “Opozytsiinyi blok” – from 9.4% to 14.2%, of Radykal`na partiya – from 7.4% to 10.3%. Support rate of National union “Svoboda” has grown from 4.7% to 6.2%, and the one of “Hromadyans`ka pozytsia” – from 3.1% to 5.3%.

 

What would have happened if the elections had been held also on the territories that are not controlled by Ukraine.

Our survey was conducted also on the territories that are not controlled by Ukrainian government: 326 out of 2020 interviews were held in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, while 112 out of these 326 interviews took place on the territories that are temporarily not controlled by Ukraine. In the sample of the poll the proportion of respondents for Donetsk and Luhansk regions corresponds to the proportion of the adult population of these regions (territories both controlled and not controlled now by Ukraine) as was before events of 2014.

In case of modeling the elections on the territories of Ukraine only without the AR of Crimea, that is including temporarily not controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, “Blok Petra Poroshenka “Solidarnist`” and “Opozytsiynyi blok” would have the same support rate – 16% amongst those of adult population who have decided which party to vote for. These parties would be followed by National union “Bat`kivshchyna” (14.5%), “Samopomich” (11.4%), Radykal`na partiya (9.9%), NU “Svoboda” (5.8%), “Hromadyans`ka pozytsia” (5%) (see tables in addition).

Commentary of KIIS Head of the Department Anton Grushetskyi

The survey was conducted before the report of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on February 16, 2016 and before the events associated with the votings for the government dismissal and for NU "Bat`kivshchyna" and "Samopomich” to leave the coalition. These events could have affected the ratings of parties, so the actual current rating of parties may be slightly different from the rating of parties calculated according to the results of the survey.

 

Tables

 

If elections to Verkovna Rada were held on the coming Sunday, would you participate? What would be your choice if the following parties participated in elections?
Amongst the adult population of Ukraine living on the territories controlled by Ukraine
 
  Ukraine in general Macroregions
Western Central South Eastern
Agrarna partiya Ukrainy  (V.Skotsyk) 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
Party “Blok Petra Poroshenka “Solidarnist`” (Y. Lutsenko, V. Klichko) 6.9 8.8 8.7 4.1 3.2
Party "Vidrodzhennya" (V.Bondar) 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.7
Party " National union “Bat`kivshchyna " (Y.Tymoshenko) 6.3 8.0 8.3 4.1 1.3
Party "National union "Svoboda" (O.Tyagnybok) 2.6 5.9 2.5 0.4 0.0
Party "Hromadyans`ka pozytsia" (A.Grytsenko) 2.2 4.7 2.5 0.0 0.2
Party "Demokratychnyi alians" (V.Gatsko) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Party "Narodnyi control`" (D.Dobrodomov) 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1
Party "Narodnyi front" (A.Yatseniuk) 1.0 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.0
Party "Natsional`nyi rukh Dmytra Yarosha" 1.2 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.8
Party "Nash krai" (co-chairs: O. Mazurchak, O.Feldman, A.Kisse, S.Kaltsev, Y. Hranaturov) 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.2
Party "Nova derzhava" (P.Symonenko) 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.8
Party "Obiyednannya “Samopomich" (A.Sadovyi) 4.9 9.5 3.9 2.2 3.1
Party " Opozytsiinyi blok " (Y.Boiko, S. Lyovochkin, V. Rabinovych) 5.9 0.6 1.8 13.5 13.0
Party "Pravyi sektor" (A.Tarasenko) 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 1.0
Party "Rukh za ochyshchennya" (M.Saakashvili) 1.5 1.9 1.3 0.9 2.0
Party "Syla lyudei" (O.Solontai) 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0
Party "Syl`na Ukraina" (S.Tihipko) 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 0.7
Partiya prostykh lyudei Sergiya Kaplina 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0
Party UKROP (D. Borysenko, B. Filatov) 1.6 2.0 0.3 3.4 0.8
Radykal`na partiya Oleha Lyashka 4.2 6.8 3.4 3.8 2.0
For another party 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 1.1
WOULD CROSS OUT ALL PARTIES IN A BALLOT / WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT 7.6 3.7 12.2 8.0 2.1
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE IN VOTING 26.4 19.7 22.7 31.1 41.0
DIFFICULT TO SAY 24.7 22.1 26.7 24.1 25.8

 

Amongst the adult population of Ukraine living on the territories controlled by Ukraine who have decided whom to vote for and want to participate  

  Ukraine in general Macroregions
Western Central South Eastern
Agrarna partiya Ukrainy  (V.Skotsyk) 0.9 0.4 1.9 0.5 0.0
Party “Blok Petra Poroshenka “Solidarnist`” (Y. Lutsenko, V. Klichko) 16.6 16.2 22.6 11.2 10.4
Party "Vidrodzhennya" (V.Bondar) 1.0 0.0 1.7 1.2 2.2
Party " National union “Bat`kivshchyna " (Y.Tymoshenko) 15.1 14.7 21.7 11.1 4.2
Party "National union "Svoboda" (O.Tyagnybok) 6.2 10.8 6.6 1.0 0.0
Party "Hromadyans`ka pozytsia" (A.Grytsenko) 5.3 8.7 6.6 0.0 0.7
Party "Demokratychnyi alians" (V.Gatsko) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Party "Narodnyi control`" (D.Dobrodomov) 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.4
Party "Narodnyi front" (A.Yatseniuk) 2.5 3.5 3.0 1.2 0.0
Party "Natsional`nyi rukh Dmytra Yarosha" 2.9 2.8 3.6 1.8 2.7
Party "Nash krai" (co-chairs: O. Mazurchak, O.Feldman, A.Kisse, S.Kaltsev, Y. Hranaturov) 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.8
Party "Nova derzhava" (P.Symonenko) 0.8 0.0 0.9 0.9 2.6
Party "Obiyednannya “Samopomich" (A.Sadovyi) 11.8 17.4 10.1 6.1 9.9
Party " Opozytsiinyi blok " (Y.Boiko, S. Lyovochkin, V. Rabinovych) 14.2 1.2 4.8 36.8 41.8
Party "Pravyi sektor" (A.Tarasenko) 0.9 1.7 0.0 0.0 3.1
Party "Rukh za ochyshchennya" (M.Saakashvili) 3.6 3.4 3.5 2.6 6.5
Party "Syla lyudei" (O.Solontai) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.0
Party "Syl`na Ukraina" (S.Tihipko) 1.0 0.7 0.0 2.3 2.3
Partiya prostykh lyudei Sergiya Kaplina 0.6 0.5 1.4 0.0 0.0
Party UKROP (D. Borysenko, B. Filatov) 3.9 3.6 0.9 9.2 2.6
Radykal`na partiya Oleha Lyashka 10.3 12.5 8.8 10.5 6.4
For another party 1.2 0.8 0.0 2.5 3.5

 

If elections to Verkovna Rada were held on the coming Sunday, would you participate? What would be your choice if the following parties participated in elections?

Amongst the adult population of Ukraine including those living on the territories that are temporarily not controlled by Ukraine
 
  Ukraine in general Macroregions[1]
Western Central South Eastern
Agrarna partiya Ukrainy  (V.Skotsyk) 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
Party “Blok Petra Poroshenka “Solidarnist`” (Y. Lutsenko, V. Klichko) 6.4 9.0 8.7 4.1 2.4
Party "Vidrodzhennya" (V.Bondar) 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.6
Party " National union “Bat`kivshchyna " (Y.Tymoshenko) 5.8 8.0 8.3 4.1 1.2
Party "National union "Svoboda" (O.Tyagnybok) 2.3 5.9 2.5 0.4 0.0
Party "Hromadyans`ka pozytsia" (A.Grytsenko) 2.0 4.8 2.5 0.0 0.2
Party "Demokratychnyi alians" (V.Gatsko) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Party "Narodnyi control`" (D.Dobrodomov) 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1
Party "Narodnyi front" (A.Yatseniuk) 0.9 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.0
Party "Natsional`nyi rukh Dmytra Yarosha" 1.2 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.9
Party "Nash krai" (co-chairs: O. Mazurchak, O.Feldman, A.Kisse, S.Kaltsev, Y. Hranaturov) 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.2
Party "Nova derzhava" (P.Symonenko) 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 1.6
Party "Obiyednannya “Samopomich" (A.Sadovyi) 4.5 9.4 3.9 2.2 2.5
Party " Opozytsiinyi blok " (Y.Boiko, S. Lyovochkin, V. Rabinovych) 6.3 0.6 1.8 13.5 11.8
Party "Pravyi sektor" (A.Tarasenko) 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.7
Party "Rukh za ochyshchennya" (M.Saakashvili) 1.4 1.9 1.3 0.9 1.7
Party "Syla lyudei" (O.Solontai) 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0
Party "Syl`na Ukraina" (S.Tihipko) 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 0.9
Partiya prostykh lyudei Sergiya Kaplina 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0
Party UKROP (D. Borysenko, B. Filatov) 1.5 2.0 0.3 3.4 0.6
Radykal`na partiya Oleha Lyashka 3.9 6.8 3.4 3.8 1.6
For another party 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 0.9
WOULD CROSS OUT ALL PARTIES IN A BALLOT / WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT 7.2 3.6 12.2 8.0 3.0
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE IN VOTING 28.9 19.4 22.7 31.1 46.4
DIFFICULT TO SAY 24.2 22.3 26.7 24.1 22.7

 

Amongst the adult population of Ukraine, including those living on the territories that are temporarily not controlled by Ukraine, who have decided how to vote and want to participate

 

  Ukraine in general Macroregions
Western Central Western Eastern
Agrarna partiya Ukrainy  (V.Skotsyk) 0.8 0.4 1.9 0.5 0.0
Party “Blok Petra Poroshenka “Solidarnist`” (Y. Lutsenko, V. Klichko) 16.0 16.4 22.6 11.2 8.5
Party "Vidrodzhennya" (V.Bondar) 1.1 0.0 1.7 1.2 2.1
Party " National union “Bat`kivshchyna " (Y.Tymoshenko) 14.5 14.7 21.7 11.1 4.3
Party "National union "Svoboda" (O.Tyagnybok) 5.8 10.7 6.6 1.0 0.0
Party "Hromadyans`ka pozytsia" (A.Grytsenko) 5.0 8.7 6.6 0.0 0.6
Party "Demokratychnyi alians" (V.Gatsko) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Party "Narodnyi control`" (D.Dobrodomov) 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.3
Party "Narodnyi front" (A.Yatseniuk) 2.4 3.6 3.0 1.2 0.0
Party "Natsional`nyi rukh Dmytra Yarosha" 3.0 2.9 3.6 1.8 3.3
Party "Nash krai" (co-chairs: O. Mazurchak, O.Feldman, A.Kisse, S.Kaltsev, Y. Hranaturov) 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.7
Party "Nova derzhava" (P.Symonenko) 1.4 0.0 0.9 0.9 5.9
Party "Obiyednannya “Samopomich" (A.Sadovyi) 11.4 17.1 10.0 6.1 8.9
Party " Opozytsiinyi blok " (Y.Boiko, S. Lyovochkin, V. Rabinovych) 16.0 1.2 4.8 36.8 42.5
Party "Pravyi sektor" (A.Tarasenko) 0.9 1.7 0.0 0.0 2.6
Party "Rukh za ochyshchennya" (M.Saakashvili) 3.6 3.4 3.5 2.6 5.9
Party "Syla lyudei" (O.Solontai) 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.0
Party "Syl`na Ukraina" (S.Tihipko) 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.3 3.3
Partiya prostykh lyudei Sergiya Kaplina 0.6 0.5 1.4 0.0 0.0
Party UKROP (D. Borysenko, B. Filatov) 3.7 3.6 0.9 9.2 2.0
Radykal`na partiya Oleha Lyashka 9.9 12.5 8.8 10.5 5.9
For another party 1.3 0.8 0.0 2.5 3.2


[1] Western macroregion: Volyns`ka, Zakarpats`ka, Ivano-Frankivs`ka, Lvivs`ka, Rivnens`ka, Ternopils`ka, Khmel`nytska, Chernivets`ka oblast`; Central macroregion: Kyiv city, Kyivs`ka, Vynnyts`ka, Zhytomyrs`ka, Kirovograds`ka, Poltavs`ka, Sums`ka, Cherkas`ka, Chernihivs`ka oblast`; South macroregion: Dnipropetrovs`ka, Zaporiz`ka, Mykolaivs`ka, Odes`ka, Khersons`ka oblast`; Eastern macroregion: Kharkivs`ka, Donets`ka, Luhans`ka oblast`.

 

For comments please contact Anton Grushetsky: a.grushetsky@kiis.com.ua, 050-1309989




23.2.2016
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