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Presidential candidates ranking, February 2016
Press release by Daryna Pyrohova
In a period of February 5-16, 2016 Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has conducted its own public opinion poll about current ratings of support for presidential candidates in Ukraine. Data were collected from 2020 respondents living in 110 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except the AR of Crimea) through personal interviews. Sample is stochastic and representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.
In Luhansk region survey was conducted only on the territories controlled by Ukraine. In Donetsk region survey was conducted both on territories that are and that are temporarily not controlled by Ukraine.
The statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design–effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2.8% – for indicators close to 25%, 2.0% – for indicators close to 10%, 1.4% – for indicators close to 5%, 0.7% - for indicators close to 1 or 99%.
If presidential elections had been held in mid-February, Petro Poroshenko would have received the highest support (9% in relation to all respondents) from adult population of the territories that are now controlled by Ukraine. Yulia Tymoshenko would have occupied the second place then (6.8%), and Oleh Lyashko – the third one (4.6%). Andrii Sadovyi would have been supported by 4.2% of the population, Yurii Boiko – by 3.8%, Anatolii Grytsenko – by 3.5%, Dmytro Yarosh – by 2.6%, and 5.1% of the population would have voted for other candidates. Also 27.5% have not decided how to vote yet, 25.1% would not have come to vote.
If those who have not decided how to vote and those who want to vote against all had not, as usual, come to the elections, about 40% of all voters would have come to participate, and their votes would have been distributed as follows.
22,8% would vote for Petro Poroshenko,
17,1% – for Yulia Tymoshenko,
11,5% – for Oleh Lyashko,
10,7% – for Andrii Sadovyi,
9,6% – for Yurii Boiko,
8,8% – for Anatolii Grytsenko,
6,5% – for Dmytro Yarosh.
All other candidates would have received less than 4% of votes (see table 1).
Actually, these indicators are the closest to possible results of the Presidential elections if they had been held in the middle of February.
Changes in Presidential candidates ranking comparing to the elections in 2014
Rating of Petro Poroshenko which he would have received in the elections in mid-February fellsignificantly comparing to the one he had on Presidential elections in 2014 - from 54.7% to 22.8%. Rating of Yulia Tymoshenko has rised instead – from 12.8% in 2014 to 17.7% in February 2016.
Ratings of Dmytro Yarosh, Oleh Lyashko and Anatolii Grytsenko also has grown. In the Presidential elections of 2014 Dmytro Yarosh received 0.7% of votes while he might have received 6.5% in February 2016.
Oleh Lyashko received 8.3% of votes in the Presidential elections in 2014 while 11.5% of those who would have liked to vote would have supported him in February 2016.
Anatolii Grytsenko received 5.5% of votes in 2014 but he could have scored 8.8% of votes in February 2016.
Rating of Petro Symonenko remains more or less the same: 1.5% in 2014, 1.3% in mid-February 2016.
What would have been the results, if the Presidential elections had been held also on the territories that are not controlled by Ukraine.
Our survey was conducted also on the territories that are not controlled by Ukrainian government: 326 out of 2020 interviews were held in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, while 112 out of these 326 interviews took place on the territories that are temporarily not controlled by Ukraine. In the sample of the poll the proportion of respondents for Donetsk and Luhansk regions corresponds to the proportion of the adult population of these regions as it was before events of 2014.
In case of modeling the Presidential elections on the territory of Ukraine only without the AR of Crimea, that is including temporarily not controlled by Ukraine territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, from the total amount of votes that might have been submitted Petro Poroshenko would have received 22.6%, Yulia Tymoshenko – 16.7%, Oleh Lyashko – 11.3%, Yurii Boiko – 10.8%, Andrii Sadovyi – 10.4%. (For data on other candidates see tables in addition).
Would you participate in the voting for the President of Ukraine, if elections were held next Sunday? What would be your choice, if the following candidates participated? Amongst the adult population of Ukraine living on the territories controlled by Ukraine.
Amongst the adult population of Ukraine living on the territories controlled by Ukraine, who want to participate and have already decided how to vote
Would you participate in the voting for the President of Ukraine, if elections were held next Sunday? What would be your choice, if the following candidates participated?Amongst the adult population of Ukraine including those living on the territories that are temporarily not controlled by Ukraine
Amongst the adult population of Ukraine, including those living on the territories that are temporarily not controlled by Ukraine, who have decided how to vote and want to participate
*Western macroregion: Volyns`ka, Zakarpats`ka, Ivano-Frankivs`ka, Lvivs`ka, Rivnens`ka, Ternopils`ka, Khmel`nytska, Chernivets`ka oblast`; Central macroregion: Kyivcity, Kyivs`ka, Vynnyts`ka, Zhytomyrs`ka, Kirovograds`ka, Poltavs`ka, Sums`ka, Cherkas`ka, Chernihivs`ka oblast`; South macroregion: Dnipropetrovs`ka, Zaporiz`ka, Mykolaivs`ka, Odes`ka, Khersons`ka oblast`; Eastern macroregion: Kharkivs`ka, Donets`ka, Luhans`ka oblast`.