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The level of support of political parties in the parliamentary elections: September 2016

Major results:

  • If the parliamentary elections had been held in the end of September, the representatives of seven political forces would have entered the Parliament on party lists.
  • All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna”, “Block Petra Poroshenka” and “Opozytsiynyi block” would have received more support than other political parties.
  •    The level of support of AUU “Batkivshchyna” has slightly decreased over the past six month, while the support of “Block Petra Poroshenka”, on the contrary, has increased.
  •    Over this time the support of “Opozytsiynyi block”, “Obiednania Samopomich”, Radical party of O.Liashko, and of the party “Hromadianska pozytsia” remained more or less the same.

 

In a period of September 16-26 of 2016, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has conducted its own public opinion poll. Data were collected from 2040 respondents living in 110 settlements (PSU) in all regions of Ukraine (except for AR of Crimea) with the method of personal interviewing. Sample is 4-staged, stochastic with quota selection on the last stage, and is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk in Donetsk oblasts (regions) survey was conducted only on the territories that are controlled by Ukraine. In this survey, the sample covered only the controlled part of Donbas in the same proportion as it was in the last parliamentary elections (October 2014) for Donbas voters according to the data of CEC.

The statistical sample error (with probability of 0.95 and design–effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2.8% – for indicators close to 25%, 2.0% – for indicators close to 10%, 1.4% – for indicators close to 5%.

 

Electoral intentions of the population on the elections to Verkhovna Rada

If the parliamentary elections had been held in the end of September, then out of all representatives of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above:

  • 6.3%  would have voted for all-Ukrainian union “Batkivshchyna”,

  •  5.9% – for “Block Petra Poroshenka”,

  •  5.3% – for  “Opozytsiinyi block”,

  •  4.2% – for  “Obiednania Samopomich”,

  •  3.9% – for Radical party of O.Liashko,

  •  2.4% – for “Hromadianska pozytsia”,

  •  2.1% – for a party “Za jytia”,

  •  1.6% – for a party “All-Ukrainian union “Svoboda”,

  •  1.4% – for a party “Ukrop”,

  •  0.9% – for a party “Pravyi sektor”,

  •  0.8% – for a party “Khvylia”,

  •  0.7% – for a party “Derzhavnytska initsiatyva Yarosha”,

  •  0.7% – for a party “Vidrodzhrnnya”,

  •  4.5% in total for other parties,

  •  5.8% – would have crossed out all the parties, would have spoilt the ballot,

  • 22.3%  would not have voted,

  • 31.1% have not decided whom to vote for yet.

Thus, if those who have not decided yet whom to vote for had not come to elections, as usual, about 41% of voters would have participated, and their votes would have been distributed as follows (basically, these indicators are the closest ones to the possible results of the elections if they have been held in the end of September):

  • 15.4%  would have voted for the party “All-Ukrainian union “Batkivshchyna”,

  • 14.5% – for the party “Block Petra Poroshenka”,

  • 13.1% – for the party “Opozytsiynyi block”,

  • 10.3% – for the party “Obiednania Samopomich”,

  •  9.6% – for Radical party of O.Liashko,

  •  6.0% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsia”,

  •  5.3% – for a party “Za jytia”,

  •  3.9% – for a party “All-Ukrainian union “Svoboda”,

  •  3.5% – for a party “Ukrop”,

  •  2.2% – for a party “Pravyi sektor”,

  •  1.9% – for a party “Khvylia”,

  •  1.8% – for a party “Derzhavnytska initsiatyva Yarosha”,

  •  1.7% – for a party “Vidrodzhrnnya”,

  •  11% for other parties in total

 

In the Table below ratings of the parties are compared to those observed in September of 2015, February-March of 2016, and with the results of elections in October, 2014.

  Elections, Oct.14 Sep.15 Feb.-Mar. 16 Sep.16
Party “All-Ukrainian union “Batkivshchyna” 5.7 18.8 18.6 15.4
Party “Block Petra Poroshenka” 21.7 19.9 11.4 14.5
Party “Opozytsiynyi block” 9.5 11 13.2 13.1
Party “Obiednania Samopomich” 11 12.8 10.9 10.3
Radical party of O.Liashko 7.5 7.4 10.9 9.6
Party “Hromadianska pozytsia” 3.1 4 5.1 6.0
Party “Za jytia” --- --- --- 5.3
Party “All-Ukrainian union “Svoboda” 4.7 3.2 6.2 3.9
Party “Ukrainian union of patriots “UKROP” --- 2.2 2.6 3.5
Party “Pravyi sektor” 1.8 6.4 1.0 2.2
Party “Khvylia” --- --- 4.1 1.9
Party “National movement “Derzhavnytska initsiatyva Yarosha” --- --- 2.5 1.8
Party “Vidrodzhenia” --- 1.5 2.2 1.7
Party “Partia prostykh liudei Sergiia Kaplina” --- 2.3 0.7 1.5
Party of Serhii Tihipko “Sylna Ukraina” 3.1 2 1.1 1.4
Communist party of Ukraine/ “Liva opozytsia”  / “Nova derzhava” 3.9 2.6 1.9 1.4
Party “Narodnyi kontrol`” --- 0.9 0.4 1.4
Agrarian party of Ukraine --- --- 1.0 1.2
Party “Narodnyi front” 22.2 1.3 1.9 1.0
Party “Demokratychnyi aliyans” --- --- 0.1 1.0
Party “Nash krai” --- --- 1.0 0.8
Narodna partiya --- --- --- 0.5
Party “Narodnyi rukh Ukrainy” --- --- --- 0.1
Party “Volya” --- --- --- 0.1
Party “Syla liudei” 0.1 --- 0.1 0.0
For another political party 5.8 3.6 3.1 0.7

 

Addition
The following are a fragment of a questionnaire and the distribution of respondents' answers to questions published in a press release.
 
 
If the elections to Verkhovna Rada were held this Sunday, would you come to vote? IF “YES”, PASS THE CARD 1 AND ASK: Whom would you vote for if the following parties participated? CARD 1. ONLY ONE ANSWER
 
  Ukraine in general West[1] Center South East Donbas
Agrarian party of Ukraine (V.Skotsyk) 0.5 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.5
Narodna partiya (V.Lytvyn) 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2
Party “Volya” (Y.Derevianko) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Party “Blok Petra Poroshenka “Solidarnist`” (V.Klytchko) 5.9 9.0 4.7 5.0 4.3 5.9
Party “Vidrodzheniya” (V.Bondar) 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.7 0.7
Party “All-Ukrainian union “Batkivshchyna” (Y.Tymoshenko) 6.3 8.5 5.8 6.3 2.7 6.3
Party “All-Ukrainian union “Svoboda” (O.Tiahnybok) 1.6 3.3 1.0 1.3 0.2 1.6
Party “Hromadianska pozytsia” (A.Hrytsenko) 2.4 5.9 1.6 0.5 1.1 2.4
Party “Demokratychnyi aliyans” (S.Leshchenko, M.Naiem, V. Gatsko, S.Zalishchuk) 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.4
Party “Za jytia” (V.Rabinovych) 2.1 0.5 2.1 2.9 4.4 2.1
Party “Narodnyi kontrol`” (D.Dobrodomov) 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.6
Party “Narodnyi rukh Ukrainy” (V.Kuibida) 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Party “Narodnyi front” (A.Yatseniuk) 0.4 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
Party “Nash krai” (co-heads: O.Mazurchak, O.Feldman, A.Kisse, S.Kaltsev, Y.Hranaturov) 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.3
Party “National movement “Derzhavnytska initsiatyva Yarosha” 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.7
Party “Nova derzhava” (P.Symonenko) 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.4 0.6
Party “Obiednania “Samopomich” (A.Sadovyi) 4.2 10.4 2.4 1.0 2.3 4.2
Party “Opozytsiinyi blok” (S.liovochkin, B.Kolesnikov, Y.Boiko) 5.3 0.1 2.2 12.4 11.0 5.3
Party “Partiya prostykh liudei Serhiia Kaplina” 0.6 0.6 0.3 1.3 0.0 0.6
Party “Pravyi sektor” (A.Tarasenko) 0.9 2.3 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.9
Party “Syla liudei” (V.Kovtun) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Party of Serhii Tihipko “Sylna Ukraina” 0.6 0.5 0.3 1.2 0.0 0.6
Party “Khvylia” (M.Saakashvili, V.Chumak, D.Sakvarelidze, V. Kasko) 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.8
Party “Ukrainian union of patriots “UKROP” (D. Borysenko, B.Filatov) 1.4 1.9 0.1 3.5 0.0 1.4
Radical party of Oleh Liashko 3.9 5.7 3.7 3.2 2.0 3.9
For another political party 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3
WOULD CROSS OUT ALL THE POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE BALLOT, WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT 5.8 5.1 5.8 7.4 4.3 5.8
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE 22.3 17.4 23.8 22.7 27.7 22.3
HARD TO SAY 31.1 23.1 41.1 25.6 31.5 31.1


[1] *Westernmacroregion: Volyns`ka, Zakarpats`ka, Ivano-Frankivs`ka, Lvivs`ka, Rivnens`ka, Ternopils`ka, Khmel`nytska, Chernivets`ka oblast`; Centralmacroregion: Kyiv city, Kyivs`ka, Vynnyts`ka, Zhytomyrs`ka, Kirovograds`ka, Poltavs`ka, Sums`ka, Cherkas`ka, Chernihivs`ka oblast`; Southmacroregion: Mykolaivs`ka, Odes`ka, Khersons`ka oblast`; Easternmacroregion: Dnipropetrovs`ka, Zaporiz`ka, Kharkivs`ka; Donbas: Donets`ka, Luhans`ka oblast`.

 


 

 




4.10.2016
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