KIEV
INTERNATIONAL
INSTITUTE of
SOCIOLOGY
sociological and
marketing
research
tel. 537-3376
office@kiis.com.ua

ESC or click to close

Geopolitical orientations of the residents of Ukraine: European Union, Customs Union, NATO (September 2016)

By Iulia Sakhno

In a period of September 16-26 of 2016, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has conducted its own public opinion poll. Data were collected from 2040 respondents living in 110 settlements (PSU) in all regions of Ukraine (except for AR of Crimea and occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (regions) with the method of personal interviewing. The sample was 4-staged and stochastic with quota selection on the last stage, the sample is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk in Donetsk oblasts (regions) survey was conducted only in the territories that are controlled by the Ukrainian government. In this survey, the sample covered only the controlled part of Donbas in the same proportion as it was for Donbas voters in the last parliamentary elections (October 2014) according to the data of CEC.

The statistical sample error (with a probability of 0.95 and design–effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2.8% – for indicators close to 25%, 2.0% – for indicators close to 10%, 1.4% – for indicators close to 5%.

 

Attitude of the citizens of Ukraine to the question of Ukraine joining the European Union

According to a poll conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology in September 2016, about half of the population of Ukraine was ready to vote for Ukraine's accession to the EU: if a referendum on whether to join Ukraine the European Union had been held at the time when the survey took place, 49% of residents of Ukraine would have voted for Ukraine's accession to the EU, 25% - against, and the remaining 25% - were undecided or would not have participated in the vote.

If those who have not decided yet whom to vote for had not come to elections, as usual (or if they had come but would have voted similarly as those who had already decided), about 74% of those who have a right to vote and do not live in the occupied territories, would have participated, and their votes would have been distributed as follows (basically, these indicators are the closest ones to the possible results of the elections if they have been held at the end of September): 66% - for the joining to the EU, 34% - against the joining.



[1] Since the survey was not conducted in the occupied territories, here and further “the population of Ukraine” refers to all the residents of Ukraine who live in the territories of Ukraine except for AR of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (regions).

 
Data are presented for Ukraine without the occupied territories (the AR of Crimea and the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts).

The willingness of the residents to vote for Ukraine's accession to the European Union has not changed much since the annexation of the Crimea and the beginning of the war in the East: in 2015 (according to the combined annual data), 51.8 % of residents of Ukraine (excluding occupied territories) were ready to vote for joining the EU, in February of 2016 the percentage was 51%, in May - 49%, in September - 49% (difference lies within the statistical error).

 

Data are presented for Ukraine without the occupied territories (the AR of Crimea and the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts).

 

Attitude of the citizens of Ukraine to the question of Ukraine joining the Customs Union

The idea of Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan does not currently receive great support from the citizens of Ukraine: if a referendum on whether Ukraine should enter the Customs Union had been held in September 2016,  18% of residents of Ukraine  would have voted for Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union, 55% - would vote against, and 27% - were undecided or would not have participated in such a referendum.

If those who have not decided yet whom to vote for had not come to elections, as usual, about 73% of those who have a right to vote and do not live in the occupied territories, would have participated, and their votes would have been distributed as follows (basically, these indicators are the closest ones to the possible results of the elections if they have been held at the end of September): 25% - for the joining the Customs Union, 75% - against the joining.


 

 

Data are presented for Ukraine without the occupied territories (the AR of Crimea and the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts).

The willingness of the Ukrainians to join the Customs Union has not changed much since the end of 2014: 17% of the residents of Ukraine were ready to vote for the accession in December of 2014, 18% are ready now, in September of 2016 (difference lies within the statistical error).


 

 Data are presented for Ukraine without the occupied territories (the AR of Crimea and the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts).

Attitude of the citizens of Ukraine to the question of Ukraine joining NATO

The share of supporters of Ukraine's joining NATO is somewhat dominating over the share of opponents: if a referendum on the question of whether Ukraine should join NATO had been held in September of 2016, 39% of the residents of Ukraine would have voted for Ukraine's accession to NATO, 31% - against; the remaining 30% were undecided or would not have participated in such a referendum.

Thus, if the referendum on Ukraine`s joining NATO had been held in September of 2016, and all those who have already decided whom to vote for had come to the elections, about 70% of the population would have voted and their votes would have been distributed as follows: 56% - for, 44% - against.

Data are presented for Ukraine without the occupied territories (the AR of Crimea and the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts).

Share of those who are ready to vote for Ukraine's accession to NATO is virtually unchanged compared to May of the last year (40% in May of 2015, 39% in September of 2016), while a number of staunch opponents decreased (from 34% in May of 2015 to 31% in September of 2016), and, vice versa, the share of those who are undecided or do not want to vote in a referendum on the issue increased (from 26% in May of 2015 to 30% in September of 2016).

 

Data are presented for Ukraine without the occupied territories (the AR of Crimea and the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts).

 

 

ADDITION. Tables

Table 1. “Imagine, please, that now there is a referendum on whether Ukraine should join the European Union. You may vote for joining, against joining or choose not to participate in voting. What is your choice?”, %, December 2014 – September 2016.

  Dec. 2014 Feb. 2015 May. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Feb.2016 May.2016 Sep.2016
For joining 54.3 52.4 51.3 48.3 55.1 50.9 49.4 49.1
Against joining 23.5 24.4 26.2 28.4 21.2 25.8 26.2 25.4
Would not participate in voting 8.4 10.3 10.2 10.6 10.6 8.9 9.3 10.4
Difficult to say 13.7 12.8 12.3 12.8 13.1 14.4 15.1 15.1
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Data are presented for Ukraine without the occupied territories (the AR of Crimea and the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts).

Table 2. “If now there was a referendum on whether Ukraine should join the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, how would you vote - for joining the union, against joining or would choose not to participate in voting?”, %, December 2014 – September 2016.

  Dec.14 May.15 Sep.15 Dec.15 Feb.16 May.16 Sep.16
For joining 16.8 16.3 15.8 14.2 14.9 16.2 17.9
Against joining 60.0 59.3 60.2 59.6 60.0 57.0 54.6
Would not participate in voting 10.6 12.2 11.8 12.1 9.6 9.8 11.2
Difficult to say 12.6 12.2 12.1 14.1 15.5 17.1 16.2
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Data are presented for Ukraine without the occupied territories (the AR of Crimea and the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts).

Table 3. “If now there was a referendum on whether Ukraine should join NATO, how would you vote - for joining the union, against joining or would choose not to participate in voting?”, %, September 2014 – September 2016.

  Sep.14 May.15 Sep.16
For joining 47.8 39.6 39.2
Against joining 32.4 34.0 31.2
Would not participate in voting 7.3 9.7 17.8
Difficult to say 12.5 16.7 11.8
TOTAL 100 100 100

Data are presented for Ukraine without the occupied territories (the AR of Crimea and the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts).

Regarding comments please contact Iuliia Sakhno.: j.sakhno@kiis.com.ua

25.10.2016
Go up | Back
FILTR BY DATE
Year:
Month:
Яндекс.Метрика Google+