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Electoral moods of the population about the parliamentary and the presidential elections, December 2016

In a period of December 3-12 of 2016, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has conducted its own public opinion poll. Data were collected from 2040 respondents living in 110 settlements (PSU) in all regions of Ukraine (except for AR of Crimea) with the method of personal interviewing. The sample was stochastic and 4-staged with quota selection on the last stage, the sample is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (regions) survey was conducted only in the territories that are controlled by the Ukrainian government. In this survey, the sample covered only the controlled part of Donbas in the same proportion as it was for Donbas voters in the last parliamentary elections (October 2014) according to the data of CEC.

The statistical sample error (with a probability of 0.95 and design–effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2.8% – for indicators close to 25%, 2.0% – for indicators close to 10%, 1.4% – for indicators close to 5%.

 

            Dear journalists! Please note the following when interpreting these studies:

1)     Questions about the ratings were at the beginning of the questionnaire, so that other questions could not influence them.

2)     Ratings are comparable and depend on the assessment list. The very list of parties and candidates is a hypothesis to some extent, there is no "correct" list since the election campaign has not begun and the registration has not ended.

In this survey:

-        list of parties was created by the KIIS employees

-        list of candidates for the presidential elections was proposed by Roman Shraik

3)     KIIS standard is the publication of ratings in relation to all respondents, and in relation to those who plan to come and decided whom to vote for ( "imitation of the elections"), more details:

http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=661&page=1

See also “Differences in the sociological data”, V.Paniotto for the magazine “Zerkalo nedeli. Ukraina” є45

http://gazeta.zn.ua/internal/razlichiya-v-sociologicheskih-dannyh-_.html

 
 

Major results:

  • If the parliamentary elections had been held in the beginning of December, most likely the representatives of six political forces would have entered the Parliament: “Batkivshchyna” (18% among those who will vote and decided with the choice), “Opozytsiynyi block” (12%), “Block Petra Poroshenko” (12%), party “Za jyttia” (10%), Radical party of O.Liashko (10%), “Samopomich” (8%). On the edge of entry there is a party “Svoboda” (5%), party “Hromadianska pozytsia” (4.8%) also holds a chance to enter the parliament.

  • If the presidential elections had been held in the beginning of December, then none of the candidates, presented to the respondents, would have received the sufficient amount of votes for being elected in the first round.

  • Most likely, Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko would have participated in the second round of such elections.

 

Electoral intentions of the population about the elections to Verkhovna Rada

If the elections to Verkhovna Rada had been held in the middle of December, then out of all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above:

  •  8.6%  would have voted for “All-Ukrainian union Batkivshchyna”;

  •  5.7% – for the party “Opozytsiynyi block”;

  •  5.6% – for the party “Block Petra Poroshenka”;

  •  4.9% – for the party “Za jyttia”;

  • 4.6% – for the Radical party of O.Liashko,

  • 3.6% – for the party “Obiednannia Samopomich”;

  • 2.3% – for the party “All-Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 2.3% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsia”;

  • 1.9% – for the party “Rukh novyh syl”;

  • 7.5% for other parties in total;

  • 7.2% would have crossed out all the parties, spoilt the ballot;

  • 21.9% decided not to participate in voting,

  • 24% have not decided yet whom to vote for.


Thus, if those who have not decided whom to vote for yet had not, as usual, come to the elections, about 47% of all voters would have participated, and their votes would have distributed as follows (actually these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in mid-December):

  • 18.3would have voted for “All-Ukrainian union Batkivshchyna”;

  • 12.2% – for the party “Opozytsiynyi block”;

  • 11.9% – for the party “Block Petra Poroshenka”;

  • 10.4% – for the party “Za jyttia”;

  • 9.8% – for the Radical party of O.Liashko,

  • 7.6% – for the party “Obiednannia Samopomich”;

  • 5% – fortheparty“All-Ukrainian union “Svoboda”;

  • 4.8% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsia”;

  • 4.1% – for the party “Rukh novyh syl” (Saakashvili);

  • 16% for other parties in total.

The dynamics of party ratings over the past 2 years is in the following Table.

  Oct.14 Sep.15 Feb.-Mar.16 Sep.16 Nov.16 Dec.16
Party “All-Ukrainian union “Batkivshchyna” 5.7 18.8 18.6 15.4 19.1 18.3
“Opozytsiinyi blok” 9.5 11 13.2 13.1 10.1 12.2
“Block Petra Poroshenka “Solidarnist” 21.7 19.9 11.4 14.5 13.2 11.9
“Za jyttia” --- --- --- 5.3 8.1 10.4
Radical party of Oleh Liashko 7.5 7.4 10.9 9.6 9.0 9.8
“Obiednania Samopomich” 11 12.8 10.9 10.3 6.0 7.6
“All-Ukrainian union “Svoboda” 4.7 3.2 6.2 3.9 5.5 5.0
“Hromadianska pozytsia” 3.1 4 5.1 6.0 6.1 4.8
“Rukh novyh syl” --- --- --- --- --- 4.1
“Ukrainske obiednannia patriotiv “UKROP” --- 2.2 2.6 3.5 1.5 1.9
National movement “Derzhavnytska initsiatyva Yarosha” --- --- 2.5 1.8 0.9 1.5
Agrarian party of Ukraine --- --- 1.0 1.2 0.7 1.2
Party of Serhii Tihipko “Sylna Ukraina” 3.1 2 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.0
“Narodnyi front” 22.2 1.3 1.9 1.0 0.9 1.0
“Narodna partia” --- --- --- 0.2 --- 0.9
“Pravyi sektor” 1.8 6.4 1.0 2.2 0.7 0.9
“Narodnyi kontrol” --- 0.9 0.4 1.4 1.3 0.9
“Nash krai” --- --- 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.8
“Partia prostykh liudei Serhiia Kaplina --- 2.3 0.7 1.5 1.6 0.7
“Volia” --- --- --- 0.1 0.1 0.6
“Vidrodzhennia” --- 1.5 2.2 1.7 1.4 0.6
“Narodnyi rukh Ukrainy” --- --- --- 0.1 0.2 0.5
“Syla liudei” 0.1 --- 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.4
“Nova derzhava” 3.9 2.6 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.3
“Demokratychnyi alians” --- --- 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.3
“Natsionalnyi korpus” --- --- --- --- 0.3 0.2
Party “Socialisty” --- --- --- --- --- 0.2
“Khvylia” --- --- 4.1 1.9 3.0 0.1
Other 5.8 3.6 3.1 1.0 5.5 1.9

Electoralintentionsofthepopulationabout the elections of the President of Ukraine

The list of the candidates (“voting ballot”) proposed by Roman Shraik, that was used in the survey.

If the elections of the President of Ukraine had been held in the middle of December, then out of all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above:

  • 9.3%  would have voted for Yulia Tymoshenko,

  • 6.4% – for Petro Poroshenko,

  •  6.1% – for Yurii Boiko,

  •  4.8% – for Vadym Rabinovich,

  •  4.3% – for Oleh Liashko,

  •  3.8% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,

  •  3.3% – for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk,

  •  2.8% – for Andrii Sadovyi,

  •  2.2% – for Oleh Tiahnybok,

  •  1.4% – for Nadia Savchenko,

  •  1.2% – for Dmytro Yarosh,

  •  5.8% for other candidates in total,

  •  6% – would have crossed out all the candidates, spoilt the ballot

  • 19.2% – decided not to participate,

  • 23.5% – have not decided whom to vote for yet.

 

Thus, if those who have not decided whom to vote for yet had not, as usual, come to the elections, about 51% of all voters would have participated, and their votes would have distributed as follows (actually these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in mid-December):

  • 18.1%  would have voted for Yulia Tymoshenko,

  • 12.5% – for Petro Poroshenko,

  •  11.9% – for Yurii Boiko,

  •  9.3% – for Vadym Rabinovich,

  •  8.3% – for Oleh Liashko,

  •  7.5% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,

  •  6.4% – for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk,

  •  5.5% – for Andrii Sadovyi,

  •  4.4% – for Oleh Tiahnybok,

  •  2.7% – for Nadia Savchenko,

  •  2.3% – for Dmytro Yarosh,

  •  11.2% for other candidates in total,

 


Addition

Hereby there are the fragments of the questionnaire with answer distribution for the questions that were discussed in the press release.
 
If the elections the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine were held this Sunday, would you come to vote? IF “YES”, PASS THE CARD 1 AND ASK: Whom would you vote for if the following parties participated?  CARD 1. ONLY ONE ANSWER
 
  Ukraine in general West[1] Center South East
Agrarian party of Ukraine (V.Skotsyk) 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.4 1.5
Narodna partia (V.Lytvyn) 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.0
Party “Volia” (Y.Derevianko) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.0
Party “Block Petra Poroshenka “Solidarnist” (V.Klychko) 5.6 6.1 6.5 4.3 4.5
Party “Vidrodzheniya” (V.Bondar) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.3
Party “All-Ukrainian union “Batkivshchyna” (Y.Tymoshenko) 8.6 7.5 11.6 8.8 2.0
Party “All-Ukrainian union “Svoboda” (O.Tiahnybok) 2.3 5.7 1.9 0.6 0.0
Party “Hromadianska pozytsia” (A.Hrytsenko) 2.3 5.2 1.6 0.9 0.5
Party “Demokratychnyi aliyans” (V. Gatsko, S.Leshchenko, M.Naiem, S.Zalishchuk) 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
Party “Za jytia” (V.Rabinovych, Y.Muraiev) 4.9 0.6 1.9 11.3 9.2
Party “Narodnyi kontrol`” (D.Dobrodomov) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3
Party “Narodnyi rukh Ukrainy” (V.Kuibida) 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0
Party “Narodnyi front” (A.Yatseniuk) 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.3
Party “Nash krai” (co-heads: O.Mazurchak, O.Feldman, A.Kisse, S.Kaltsev, Y.Hranaturov) 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0
Party “Natsionalnyi korpus” (A. Biletskyi) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Party “National movement “Derzhavnytska initsiatyva Yarosha” 0.7 1.4 0.3 0.8 0.0
Party “Nova derzhava” (P.Symonenko) 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0
Party “Obiednania “Samopomich” (A.Sadovyi) 3.6 7.0 3.0 1.3 2.4
Party “Opozytsiinyi blok” (S.Liovochkin, B.Kolesnikov, Y.Boiko) 5.7 1.3 1.2 14.3 10.3
Party “Partiya prostykh liudei Serhiia Kaplina” 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.2
Party “Pravyi sektor” (A.Tarasenko) 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
Party “Rukh novykh syl” (M.Saakashvili) 1.9 4.5 1.0 0.4 1.7
Party “Syla liudei” (Y.Bova) 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0
Party of Serhii Tihipko “Sylna Ukraina” 0.5 0.3 0.2 1.4 0.0
Party “Socialisty” (L.Kozhara) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3
Party “Khvylia” (V.Chumak, D.Sakvarelidze, V.Kasko) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Party “Ukrainian union of patriots “UKROP” (D.Borysenko, B.Filatov) 0.9 1.1 0.0 2.4 0.0
Radical party of Oleh Liashko 4.6 8.6 3.5 3.6 1.2
Other 0.9 1.1 0.6 1.3 0.4
WOULD CROSS OUT ALL THE PARTIES/ WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT 7.2 7.3 9.0 5.8 5.3
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE 21.9 15.6 24.5 21.6 28.6
DIFFICULT TO SAY 24.0 21.5 29.1 16.9 29.3

 

If the elections for the President of Ukraine were held this Sunday, would you come to vote? IF “YES”, PASS THE CARD 2 AND ASK: Whom would you vote for if the following candidates participated? ONE ANSWER

 

  Ukraine in general West Center South East
Boiko Yurii 6.1 1.9 1.7 15.2 9.0
Vakarchuk Sviatoslav 3.3 6.7 2.3 2.4 0.5
Hrytsenko Anatolii 3.8 7.4 3.8 1.5 1.1
Hroisman Volodymyr 0.9 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.8
Klychko Vitalii 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.3
Liashko Oleh 4.3 7.3 3.8 2.8 2.0
Poroshenko Petro 6.4 5.9 8.7 5.2 3.7
Rabinovych Vadim 4.8 1.2 1.9 11.9 6.1
Savchenko Nadia 1.4 2.1 1.0 1.4 0.7
Sadovyi Andrii 2.8 6.7 2.1 0.8 0.9
Tymoshenko Yulia 9.3 7.6 12.2 9.9 3.7
Tiahnybok Oleh 2.2 4.7 2.2 0.9 0.0
Yarosh Dmytro 1.2 1.9 1.0 1.2 0.0
Yatseniuk Arsenii 0.6 1.6 0.3 0.3 0.0
Other 3.4 4.4 1.1 5.1 4.3
WOULD CROSS OUT ALL THE PARTIES/ WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT 6.0 6.8 6.8 4.6 4.4
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE 19.2 12.2 22.4 18.6 26.1
DIFFICULT TO SAY 23.5 19.9 26.5 16.6 36.2


[1] Western macroregion –  Volynska, Zakarpatska, Ivano-Frankivska, Lvivska, Rivnenska, Ternopilska, Khmelnytska, Chernivets`ka oblasts (regions); Central macroregion –  Kyiv city, Kyivs`ka, Vinnytska, Zhytomyrska, Kirovohradska, Poltavska, Sumska, Cherkaska, Chernihivska oblasts; South macroregion  – Dnipropetrovska, Zaporizka, Mykolaivska, Odeska, Khersonska oblasts; Eastern macroregion –  Kharkivska, Donetska, Luhanska oblasts.


19.12.2016
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