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Press release on the results of sociological research

Presentation (.pptx)

 

The all-Ukrainian sociological research was carried out by joint efforts of four sociological companies:

• Social and marketing research center "SOCIS";

• Kyiv International Institute of Sociology;

• Sociological group "Rating";

• Razumkov Center.

 

The study was conducted with the support of the All-Ukrainian public organization "Komitet izbiratelei Ukrainy” (Voter Committee of Ukraine).

Methodology: personal formalized interview (face-to-face) at the respondent's residence.

Sample: 20 000 of respondents in all oblasts of Ukraine (without the population of the AR of Crimea and occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts). The sample was representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above on such indicators as sex, age, type of settlement, region of the residence.

Statistical sampling error:

  • No more than 0.7% for the indices close to 50%;
  • No more than 0.4% for the indices close to 10%.

Period of conduction of the research`s field stage: October 28 – November 14. 2017.

 

 

ATTITUDE TO THE KEY PROBLEMS IN THE COUNTRY 

The most pressing problems for the majority of respondents are the war in the East of Ukraine (51.3%) and socioeconomic problems: price increases (37%), low wages or pensions (36%), unemployment (27.1%), high tariffs (26.9%).

A significant part of the population to the most urgent problems attributed also the corruption in the central government (22.9%) and the problems of medicine (22.9%). 

As to the positive changes that occurred in the respondents' places of residence over the past year, a significant percentage of those surveyed drew attention to road repairs (44.9%), increase of pensions (27.3%) and improvement of urban and rural amenities (26.6%). By the way, 55.8% of the families received increased pensions by the time of the study.

Table 1.

Please select three most important, in your opinion, problems that require immediate resolution. (Respondent could choose several options that is why the total sum of responses exceeds 100%)

  %
Armed conflict in the East of Ukraine 51.3
Increased prices for basic goods, inflation 37.0
Low wages or pensions 36.0
Unemployment 27.1
High tariffs 26.9
High cost and low quality of medical services 22.9
Corruption in the central government 22.9
Social stratification, the gap between the poor and the rich 14.5
Corruption in the courts, police, procuracy 12.1
High crime rate 11.4
Government`s loss of control over the situation in the country 8.9
Corruption in the education system, medicine and housing and communal services 7.2
High taxes for small and medium businesses 3.6
Low quality of education 2.8
Lack of freedom and democracy 1.7
Pressure on business by law enforcement agencies 1.7
OTHER 1.5
NONE OF THESE 0.2
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING/ DO NOT KNOW 0.6

 

Table 2.
Say, please, what positive changes have taken place in your oblast over the past year?

(Respondent could choose several options that is why the total sum of responses exceeds 100%)

  %
Start of the road repairments 44.9
Pension increase 27.3
Works on improvement and gardening of your city / village 26.6
Simplification of the process of receiving the administrative services 8.9
Wages increase 8.7
Increased quality of public services 2.9
Improvements in the service of educational institutions 2.8
Improvements in the service of medical institutions 2.1
Local corrupted authorities were brought to justice 1.4
OTHER 1.3
NOTHING POSITIVE HAS HAPPENED 30.7
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING/ DO NOT KNOW 3.2

 

Table 3.

Have you or your relatives received an increased pension over the past month?

  %
Yes 55.8
No 26.0
There are no pensioners in my family 13.5
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING/ DO NOT KNOW 4.8

 

 

ELECTORAL INTENTIONS OF THE UKRAINIANS 

If the presidential elections were held on the nearest Sunday, Petro Poroshenko would receive the biggest support from the population – 16.1% of the respondents are ready to vote for him. Second and third places would be taken by Yulia Tymoshenko (14.4%), and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (12.1%). The possible results of other candidates would be as follows: Y.Boiko, and A.Hrytsenko – 9.3% each, V.Rabinovych – 7.9%, Liashko – 7.5%.

 Rating indicators were calculated on the basis of those respondents who have determined their choice and would have participated in the voting ("imitation of elections").

In total, about 21% of the voters do not know whom to vote for at the moment, 18% - do not plan to participate in voting at all.

 

 During the survey respondents were also asked to make their own prognosis of who will become the next President of Ukraine (the question: "In your opinion, who will win and become the next President?")

The most likely winner in the presidential election the respondents consider to be P.Poroshenko - 19.2%. The victory of Y.Tymoshenko is predicted by 10.1% of the respondents. A significant part of the respondents (42%) could not say who exactly would become the next President of Ukraine. 

 

Table 1.

Candidate ratings in the presidential elections

  Among all polled,% Among those who plan to come for voting,% Imitation of the elections,%
Petro Poroshenko 9.8 11.9 16.1
Yulia Tymoshenko 8.8 10.7 14.4
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 7.4 9.0 12.1
Yurii Boiko 5.7 6.9 9.3
Anatolii Hrytsenko 5.6 6.9 9.3
Vadym Rabinovych 4.8 5.9 7.9
Oleh Liashko 4.6 5.6 7.5
Andrii Sadovyi 3.0 3.7 5.0
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 2.0 2.4 3.3
Oleh Tiahnybok 1.9 2.3 3.0
Arsenii Yatseniuk 0.9 1.0 1.4
OTHER CANDIDATE 6.5 7.8 10.6
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING/ DO NOT KNOW 21.4 26.0
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE IN THE VOTING 17.7

 

Table 2.

In your opinion, who will win and become the next President?

  %
Petro Poroshenko 19.2
Yulia Tymoshenko 10.1
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 4.2
Yurii Boiko 4.7
Anatolii Hrytsenko 3.6
Vadym Rabinovych 3.6
Oleh Liashko 3.3
Andrii Sadovyi 1.7
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 1.2
Oleh Tiahnybok 1.0
Arsenii Yatseniuk 0.6
OTHER CANDIDATE 4.7
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING/ DO NOT KNOW 42.0

 

There were interesting results of the research concerning such an urgent issue as the system of elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. About 30% of the Ukrainians support the majority system of elections, and 27% of the respondents believe that the mixed electoral system that operates now is the best. Only 19% of respondents support a proportional system in which voters vote exclusively for the lists of political parties.

 

The leaders of the parliamentary elections to date are All-Ukrainian Union "Batkivshchyna" and the Block of Petro Poroshenko "Solidarnist". Moreover, AU "Batkivshchyna" somewhat outruns the pro-presidential candidate: 9.7% vs. 9.4% (among all respondents).

Under such conditions, seven political parties would join the parliament, and the likely distribution of mandates by party lists (according to the current electoral legislation) would look like this: AU "Batkivshchyna" - 47 people's deputies, "BPP-Solidarnist" - 45. "Opozytsiinyi block "- 31." Hromadianska pozytsia"- 30."Za jyttia"- 27", Radical party O. Lyashko - 23."Samopomich"- 22.

 

Table 3.
Tell please, which electoral system do you support for the election of deputies to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine?

  %
Proportional, where voters vote solely for the lists of political parties 18.7
Majority, where voters vote only for the candidates from their constituency 29.5
Mixed, as it is now 26.5
DIFFICULT TO SAY/ DENIAL FROM ANSWERING/ DO NOT KNOW 25.3

 

Table 4.

Tell me if the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place next Sunday, which political party would you vote for?

  Rating, % Among those who would come to the elections,% Imitation of the elections,% Approximate number of mandates (225 in total)
PU “Batkivshchyna” (Y.Tymoshenko) 9.7 11.6 16.0 47
Block of Petro Poroshenko “Solidarnist” 9.4 11.2 15.4 45
Party “Opozytsiinyi block” (Y.Boiko) 6.4 7.6 10.5 31
Party “Hromadianska pozytsia” (A.Hrytsenko) 6.2 7.4 10.2 30
Party “Za jyttia (V.Rabinovych) 5.7 6.8 9.4 27
Radical party of Oleh Liashko 4.8 5.7 7.8 23
Union “Samopomich” (A.Sadovyi) 4.7 5.6 7.7 22
PU “Svoboda” (O.Tiahnybok) 2.8 3.4 4.6
The socio-political movement “Spravedlyvist” (Nalyvaichenko) 1.9 2.3 3.2
Party “Dvyzheniie novykh syl” (M.Saakashvili) 1.6 1.9 2.6
Party `”UKROP” (T.Batenko) 1.0 1.2 1.7
Agrarian party of Ukraine (V.Skotsyk) 0.9 1.1 1.5
Party “Narodnyi front” (A.Yatseniuk) 0.8 1.0 1.4
Party “Vidrodzhennia” (Bondar) 0.4 0.4 0.6
Party “Natsionalnyi korpus” (A.Biletskyi) 0.4 0.4 0.6
Party “Pravyi sector” (A.Tarasenko) 0.4 0.4 0.6
Party “Nash krai” (Mazurchak) 0.3 0.4 0.5
Party “Osnova” (Taruta) 0.3 0.3 0.5
OTHER PARTY 3.1 3.7 5.1
DIFFICULT TO SAY/ DENIAL FROM ANSWERING/ DO NOT KNOW 23.3 27.7
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE IN THE VOTING 16.0
TOTAL: 225

 

PROTEST INTENTIONS OF THE UKRAINIANS

The overwhelming majority of the Ukrainians (68.2%) believe that the current situation in the country is tense. A rather significant percentage (21.9%) called it explosive, and only 6.2% of the respondents noted that the situation in the country is stable.

There is a trend towards a population's choice of mostly peaceful and not very radical forms of the protest. Thus, the majority of the respondents are ready to resort to such forms of protest activity as participation in the elections (58.9%), and signing petitions and appeals (26.7%).

Only 9.2% of those who are willing to participate in the new Maidan personally.

 

Table 1.

How do you evaluate the current situation in Ukraine?

  %
Stable 6.2
Tense 68.2
Explosive 21.9
DIFFICULT TO SAY/ DENIAL FROM ANSWERING/ DO NOT KNOW 3.7

 

Table 2.

Do you personally support the conduction of mass protests in Ukraine (the new Maidan)?

  %
No, do not support 59.9
Support, but would not participate personally 22.5
Ready to participate personally 9.2
DIFFICULT TO SAY/DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 8.5

 

Table 3.

In which of the forms of protest activities are you ready to participate?

(Respondent could choose several options that is why the total sum of responses exceeds 100%)

  %
Vote in the elections 58.9
Signing petitions and appeals 26.7
Participation in protest actions 10.2
Participation in actions of civil disobedience, "Maidan" 5.2
Joining the opposition party 3.0
Take up arms 2.9
NONE OF THESE 23.4
DIFFICULT TO SAY/DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 6.5

 

Table 4.

What is your attitude to the protest action under the building of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine in Kiev?

  %
Fully support 7.3
Rather support 13.9
Rather not support 19.0
Not support at all 38.5
KNOW NOTHING AT ALL 14.4
DIFFICULT TO SAY/DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 6.9

 

FOREIGN POLICY ORIENTATIONS OF THE POPULATION

In public sentiments, the population continues to support the declared by the authorities policy on European integration and accession to NATO. Thus, a convincing majority of the population supports the accession to the EU (56.2%), while the accession to NATO has much more supporters (43.2%) than opponents (33.3%).

 Talking about the direction of the further development of Ukraine, to the date the population divided into two groups: the supporters of EU integration (44.9%), and the supporters of Ukraine`s independent development (40%).

 

Table 1.

If a referendum on Ukraine's accession to the European Union (EU) took place in the nearest future, how would you vote?

If a referendum on Ukraine's accession to NATO took place in the nearest future, how would you vote?

  Accession to EU, % Accession to NATO, %
Would vote FOR 56.2 43.2
Would vote AGAINST 24.6 33.3
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE IN THE VOTING 9.6 10.4
DIFFICULT TO SAY/DENIAL FROM ANSWERING/ DO NOT KNOW 9.6 13.0

 

Table 2.

In your opinion, what direction of the development should Ukraine take?

  %
Direction toward Europe, integration to the EU 44.9
Direction toward Russia, restoring the relations with the CIS countries 9.7
Define the independent direction of development and count on the own resources 40.0
DIFFICULT TO SAY/DENIAL FROM ANSWERING/ DO NOT KNOW 5.5

 


22.11.2017
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