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Readiness of the Ukrainians to participate in social protest actions, December 2017

Press release by Liana Novikova

 

On December 1-14. 2017. Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own public opinion poll. Data were collected from 2039 respondents living in 110 settlements in all oblasts of Ukraine (except for the AR of Crimea) with the method of personal interviewing. The sample is stochastic and representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above. In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts survey was conducted only in the territories that are controlled by the Ukrainian government.

The statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and for a design effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% — for indexes close to 50%, 2.8% — for indexes close to 25%, 2.0% — for indexes close to 10%, 1.4% — for indexes close to 5%.

According to the data of polls conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 40% of the adult population of Ukraine was ready to participate in the protest actions in December 2017. Compared to the previous years, the level of readiness to participate in social protest initially increased from 43% in December 2014 to 49% in December 2016. and then declined to 40% in December 2017. At the same time, the proportion of those who argue that they are not ready to take part in any mass protests increased from 46% in 2016 to 53% in 2017.

 

The largest number of people are still ready to resort to such forms of social protest as participation in an electoral company[1] (29%), collecting signatures under collective calls (17%), authorized rallies and demonstrations (10%). From 2% to 3% of respondents indicated that they were ready to take part in such actions as the strike, boycott, picketing of state institutions, unauthorized rallies and demonstrations.

Graph 1


[1]Whether the participation in the elections is a form of social protest is a controversial issue: some of those who chose this answer, undoubtedly consider the elections as an opportunity to express their protest to the authorities, but some of those who vote are loyal to the authorities



Diagram 2

 

By region:

  • The level of readiness to participate in protest actions, in general, is relatively lower in the Western region (35%) compared with the others.
  • Regarding the regional differences in certain types of protest actions, the inhabitants of the Western region are to a lower extent than others ready to participate in the election campaign; the residents of the Southern region are much more likely than others to participate in the collection of signatures under collective calls; and residents of the Central region less likely to participate in strikes compared with the residents of the Western and Southern regions.
  • While in the Central and Southern regions, 50% of respondents said they were not ready to take part in protest actions, in the Eastern region this share is 57%, while in the West - 59%.

 

By gender:

  • The level of readiness for participation in protest actions among men is slightly higher than among women (43% vs. 38%). The same is true for each type of protest action except of the participation in the election campaign (31% of men, 28% of women) and the collection of signatures (17% of men, 16% of women), in which about the same share of men and women is willing to participate.

 

By type of the settlement (urban-rural):

  • The level of readiness to participate in protest actions among urban residents is higher than among rural residents (44% vs. 33.5%). Basically, it is higher due to the fact that comparably more city residents are ready to take part in the election campaign (32% vs. 22%) and signatures collection (18% vs. 13%).

 

By level of education:

  • A regularity is observed: the higher is the level of education, the higher is the level of readiness to participate in protest actions (from 31% among the respondents with incomplete secondary education to 49% among the respondents with higher education).
  • Regarding certain types of protest actions, the respondents with higher education are more likely to be involved in the election campaign and collecting signatures for recall compared to the respondents with (incomplete and complete) secondary education. For example, 34% of the respondents with higher education are ready to join the election campaign, and this proportion is by 10% smaller among the respondents with complete secondary education.

 

By age:

  • The main difference by age is that people over 70 years are less likely to participate in protest actions. Thus, 70% of the respondents aged over 70 years old indicated that they were not ready to take part in protest actions. While only 2% of the elderly are ready to take part in authorized rallies and demonstrations, this indicator ranges from 8% to 12% among other age groups.
  • Middle-aged people have shown significantly higher readiness to participate in the signatures collection (19% of people aged 40-49) and strikes (5% of people aged 40-49) compared to the older people (10% and 1% respectively among people aged 70 years and above).

 

 

 

Addition 1. Formulation of the questions in the questionnaire

8. In which of the social protest actions would you personally participate? Mark, please, all options that suit you.

GIVE THE CARD 8. MARK ALL OPTIONS NAMED BY THE RESPONDENT.


Participation in the election campaign 1
Collecting signatures under the collective appeals (claims, appeals) 2
Sanctioned rallies and demonstrations 3
Strike threat 4
Boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administrative authorities) 5
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 6
Participation in strikes 7
Hunger strikes 8
Picketing of state institutions 9
Seizure of buildings 10
Creation of armed forces that are independent of the government 11
Other (WRITE DOWN) ______________ 12
I am not ready to participate in any mass protest actions 13
DIFFICULT TO SAY  14
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 15

 

Addition 2. Tables

In which of the social protest actions would you personally participate? Mark, please, all options that suit you.Arranged by the decrease of the percentages for 2017.

 

  Dec.17 Dec.14
Participation in the election campaign 28.9 29.0
Collecting signatures under the collective appeals (claims, appeals) 16.5 16.5
Sanctioned rallies and demonstrations 9.6 15.8
Participation in strikes 2.9 5.8
Boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administrative authorities) 2.8 2.6
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 2.3 3.0
Picketing of state institutions 2.0 4.0
Strike threat 1.7 2.3
Hunger strike 0.7 0.9
Seizure of buildings 0.7 0.7
Creation of armed forces that are independent of the government 0.6 1.2
Other 0.3 0.4
I am not ready to participate in any mass protest actions 53.2 48.8
DIFFICULT TO SAY  5.3 7.9
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 1.2 was no

 

By region:

  Western Central South Eastern
Participation in the election campaign 20.4 31.0 34.8 29.9
Collecting signatures under the collective appeals (claims, appeals) 15.0 13.7 23.3 14.1
Sanctioned rallies and demonstrations 8.6 8.0 13.1 9.2
Strike threat 1.4 1.2 1.9 2.9
Boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administrative authorities) 4.5 2.0 1.9 3.2
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 3.7 1.2 2.6 1.7
Participation in strikes 3.8 1.4 4.4 2.1
Hunger strike 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.9
Picketing of state institutions 2.9 1.6 2.2 1.2
Seizure of buildings 0.9 0.5 0.3 1.6
Creation of armed forces that are independent of the government 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.2
Other 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.5
I am not ready to participate in any mass protest actions 58.7 49.6 50.3 57.3
DIFFICULT TO SAY  5.5 7.9 3.3 1.7
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 0.6 1.9 1.4 0.0

 

By gender:

  Male Female
Participation in the election campaign 30.7 27.5
Collecting signatures under the collective appeals (claims, appeals) 17.2 15.9
Sanctioned rallies and demonstrations 13.1 6.8
Strike threat 2.6 1.0
Boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administrative authorities) 4.1 1.7
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 3.4 1.4
Participation in strikes 4.0 2.0
Hunger strike 1.2 0.2
Picketing of state institutions 3.2 1.1
Seizure of buildings 1.4 0.1
Creation of armed forces that are independent of the government 1.2 0.2
Other 0.5 0.2
I am not ready to participate in any mass protest actions 49.7 56.1
DIFFICULT TO SAY  6.0 4.7
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 1.1 1.2

 

By type of settlement (urban-rural):

  Urban population Rural population
Participation in the election campaign 32.3 22.3
Collecting signatures under the collective appeals (claims, appeals) 18.1 13.3
Sanctioned rallies and demonstrations 10.2 8.6
Strike threat 1.9 1.4
Boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administrative authorities) 2.4 3.5
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 1.8 3.3
Participation in strikes 2.5 3.7
Hunger strike 0.9 0.3
Picketing of state institutions 1.8 2.5
Seizure of buildings 0.7 0.7
Creation of armed forces that are independent of the government 0.8 0.4
Other 0.4 0.3
I am not ready to participate in any mass protest actions 49.1 61.2
DIFFICULT TO SAY  5.5 4.9
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 1.6 0.4

 

By level of education:

  Incomplete secondary Complete secondary Special secondary Higher
Participation in the election campaign 23.6 24.0 29.7 34.0
Collecting signatures under the collective appeals (claims, appeals) 11.1 13.6 16.9 20.1
Sanctioned rallies and demonstrations 4.9 8.1 9.6 12.2
Strike threat 1.7 1.3 1.2 2.4
Boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administrative authorities) 2.6 2.7 2.1 3.6
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 1.8 1.7 2.2 3.1
Participation in strikes 1.0 2.5 3.0 3.7
Hunger strike 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.8
Picketing of state institutions 0.3 1.9 1.7 3.0
Seizure of buildings 0.7 0.3 1.3 0.4
Creation of armed forces that are independent of the government 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.9
Other 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.6
I am not ready to participate in any mass protest actions 60.9 60.0 53.8 44.8
DIFFICULT TO SAY  8.4 6.0 4.8 4.2
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.1

 

By age:

  18-29 y.o. 30-39 y.o. 40-49 y.o. 50-59 y.o. 60-69 y.o. 70+ y.o.
Participation in the election campaign 31.4 29.3 23.3 36.0 31.4 19.9
Collecting signatures under the collective appeals (claims, appeals) 17.7 17.2 18.9 20.3 11.9 10.1
Sanctioned rallies and demonstrations 9.7 12.0 12.1 11.9 7.8 1.9
Strike threat 2.3 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.1 0.4
Boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administrative authorities) 3.4 2.8 3.9 3.1 2.4 0.3
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.6 1.5 0.8
Participation in strikes 3.3 3.7 5.1 2.7 0.8 0.7
Hunger strike 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
Picketing of state institutions 2.6 2.8 3.2 1.9 0.8 0.2
Seizure of buildings 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Creation of armed forces that are independent of the government 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.9 0.0
Other 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
I am not ready to participate in any mass protest actions 48.7 49.8 54.3 47.6 54.4 69.8
DIFFICULT TO SAY  6.3 3.7 7.9 3.8 5.9 4.3
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 0.8 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.9 0.6

 

Dynamics of the readiness to participate in social protest actions (2009-2017, alternatives - as in the questionnaire)

  February 2009 April2009 September 2012 November 2013 February 2014 December 2014 December 2016 December 2017
participation in the election campaign 21.6 23.7 18.5 26.1 30.8 29.0 35.4 28.9
collecting signatures under the collective appeals (claims, appeals) 17.4 11.3 11.7 13.2 18.5 16.5 15.5 16.5
sanctioned rallies and demonstrations 16.6 15.8 13.8 11.9 17.3 15.8 11.9 9.6
strike threat 5.0 3.2 3.0 2.2 3.3 2.3 2.8 1.7
boycott (refusal to implement the decisions of administrative authorities) 3.8 2.4 2.9 2.9 3.6 2.6 2.9 2.8
unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 3.6 3.6 3.1 3.2 4.6 3.0 2.4 2.3
participation in strikes 7.7 7.6 4.4 4.2 5.0 5.8 3.4 2.9
hunger strike 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.7
picketing of state institutions 4.8 4.0 2.8 1.6 4.5 4.0 2.3 2.0
seizure of buildings 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.7
creation of armed forces that are independent of the government 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.6
other 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.3
not ready to participate in any mass protest actions 51.0 52.4 59.1 56.4 50.3 48.8 45.6 53.2
DIFFICULT TO SAY  8.0 4.9 6.9 6.4 7.5 7.9 4.4 5.3
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING was no was no was no was no was no was no 1.5 1.2

 

Regarding the commentary, please, contact Liana Novikova - +38(093)4970764. l.novikova.kiis.com.ua


13.2.2018
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