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Rating of support for parties and political leaders: February 2018

On February 5-21. 2018. Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted the all-Ukrainian public opinion poll by the client`s request. Data were collected from 2043 respondents living in 110 settlements in all oblasts of Ukraine (except for the AR of Crimea) with the method of personal interviewing. The sample was stochastic, 4-staged, and it is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

 In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts survey was conducted only in the territories that are controlled by the Ukrainian government.

The statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and for a design effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% — for indexes close to 50%, 2.8% — for indexes close to 25%, 2.0% — for indexes close to 10%, 1.4% — for indexes close to 5%.

 

 

Major results:

 

  • According to the poll results, if the parliamentary elections had been held in the end of February, most likely the representatives of eight political forces would have entered the Verkhovna Rada. The all-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna” would have received the biggest support (22.5% among those who will vote and decided with the choice). After it come Radical party of Oleh Liashko (13.7%), “Opozytsiynyi block” (12.4%), party “Za jyttia” (10.3%), “Block Petra Poroshenka” (6.6%), “Samopomich” (6%), “Svoboda” (5.8%).
  • According to the poll results, if the presidential elections had been held in the end of February, then Y.Tymoshenko would have received more voices than other candidates presented to the respondents (24.6% among those who will vote and decided with the choice). Further come O.Liashko (15.5%), A.Hrytsenko (12.5%), P.Poroshenko (9.8%), Y.Boiko (9.7%), V.Rabinovych (9.5%).

 

 

 

Electoral intentions of the population about the elections to the Verkhovna Rada

If the elections to the Verkhovna Rada had been held in the end of February, then out of all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above:

  •  9.1%  would have voted for the “All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna”;
  •  5.6% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko,
  •  5% – for the party “Opozytsiynyi block”;
  •  4.2% – for the party “Za jyttia”;
  •  3.8% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsiia”;
  •  2.7% – for the party “Block Petra Poroshenka”;
  •  2.4% – for the party “Obiednannia “Samopomich”;
  •  2.3% – for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda”;
  •  1.3% – for the party “UKROP”;
  •  1% – for the party “Rukh novykh syl”;
  •  0.7% – for the Agrarian party;
  •  0.6% – for the party “Narodnyi front”;
  •  0.5% – for the Socialist party;
  •  1.4% for other parties in total;
  •  5% – would have crossed out all the parties, spoilt the ballot;
  • 16.7% – had decided not to vote;
  • 37% – have not decided whom to vote for;
  • 0.9% – refused to answer the question.

 

Calculating the percentages in relation to those who decided with the choice (actually these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in the end of February), there will be the following results:

  • 22.5%  would have voted for the “All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna”;
  • 13.7% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko;
  • 12.4% – for the party “Opozytsiynyi block”;
  • 10.3% – for the party “Za jyttia”;
  •  9.4% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsiia”;
  •  6.6% – for the party "Block Petra Poroshenka”;
  •  6% – for the party “Obiednannia “Samopomich”;
  •  5.8% – for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda”;
  •  3.1% – for the party “UKROP”;
  •  2.4% – for the party “Rukh novykh syl”
  •  1.7% – for the Agrarian party;
  •  1.5% – for the party “Narodnyi front”;
  •  1.2% – for the Socialist party;
  •  3.4% - for other parties in total.

The table below shows the dynamics of party ratings for the period September 2017 - February 2018. Between September 2017 and February 2018. there was an increase in the support of the parties “Batkivshchyna” (from 16.3% to 22.5% among respondents who are going to vote and determined with their choice), Radical party of Oleh Liashko (from 8.1% to 13.7%) and party “Opozytsiynyi block” (from 8.1% to 12.4%). At the same time, the support of the party "Block Petra Poroshenka" fell from 12.2% to 6.6%, and support of the party “Samopomich” fell from 8.7% to 6%. The rating of other parties during this period varied within the limits of statistical error.

 

Dynamics of the party ratings during the period from September 2017 to February 2018.

% of respondents who are going to vote and determined with the choice

 

  September 2017 December 2017 February 2018
AU “Batkivshchyna” 16.3 17.2 22.5
Radical party of Oleh Liashko 8.1 10.2 13.7
“Opozytsiynyi block” 8.1 10.7 12.4
“Za jyttia” 11.7 10.2 10.3
“Hromadianska pozytsia” 7.9 8.8 9.4
“Block of Petro Poroshenko “Solidarnist” 12.2 13.4 6.6
“SAMOPOMICH” 8.7 7.4 6.0
AU “Svoboda” 7.1 5.4 5.8
“UKROP” 2.3 3.7 3.1
“Rukh novykh syl” 2.8 3.1 2.4
Agrarian party of Ukraine 1.8 3.2 1.7
“Narodnyi front” 1.8 1.8 1.5
Socialist party 0.0 1.4 1.2
“Vidrodzhennia” 1.5 1.4 1.0
“Osnova” 0.0 0.0 1.0
“Nash krai” 0.5 0.6 0.3
“Natsionalnyi korpus” 0.3 0.0 0.2
Other party 8.9 1.6 0.9

 

 

Electoral intentions of the population about the elections of the President of Ukraine

If the elections of the President of Ukraine had been held in the end of February, then out of all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above

  •  9.8% would have voted for Yulia Tymoshenko,
  •  6.2% – for Oleh Liashko,
  •  5% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
  •  3.9% – for Petro Poroshenko,
  •  3.9% – for Yurii Boiko,
  •  3.8% – for Vadym Rabinovych,
  •  2% – for Andrii Sadovyi,
  •  1.7% – for Volodymyr Hroisman,
  •  1.5% – for Oleh Tiahnybok,
  •  0.3% – for Arsenii Yatseniuk,
  •  1.9% - for other candidates in total;
  •  5.5% – would have crossed out all the candidates, spoilt the ballot,
  • 15.2% – decided not to participate,
  • 38.3% – have not decided whom to vote for,
  • 1% – refused from answering the question.

      

      Calculating the percentages in relation to those who decided with the choice (actually these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in the end of February), there will be the following results:

  •  24.6% would have voted for Yulia Tymoshenko,
  •  15.5% – for Oleh Liashko,
  •  12.5% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
  •   9.8% – for Petro Poroshenko,
  •   9.7% – for Yurii Boiko,
  •   9.5% – for Vadym Rabinovych
  •   4.9% – for Andrii Sadovyi,
  •   4.2% – for Volodymyr Hroisman,
  •   3.8% – for Oleh Tiahnybok,
  •   0.6% – for Arsenii Yatseniuk,
  •  4.9% - for other candidates in total.

The table below shows the dynamics of candidates` ratings for the period September 2017 - February 2018. Between September 2017 and February 2018. there was an increase in the support of Yulia Tymoshenko (from 17.8% to 24.6% among respondents who are going to vote and determined with their choice) and of Oleh Liashko (from 8.2% to 15.5%). At the same time, the support of the party "Block Petra Poroshenka" fell from 18.3% to 9.8%, and support of Andrii Sadovyi fell from 7.5% to 4.9%. The rating of other candidates during this period varied within the limits of statistical error.

Dynamics of candidates` ratings during the period from September 2017 to February 2018.

% of respondents who are going to vote and determined with the choice

 

  September 2017 December 2017 February 2018
Yulia Tymoshenko 17.8 20.5 24.6
Oleh Liashko 8.2 9.2 15.5
Anatolii Hrytsenko 11.1 12.8 12.5
Petro Poroshenko 18.3 16.9 9.8
Yurii Boiko 7.5 9.5 9.7
Vadym Rabinovych 9.6 7.8 9.5
Andrii Sadovyi 7.5 8.5 4.9
Volodymyr Hroisman 4.3 3.6 4.2
Oleh Tiahnybok 3.6 3.2 3.8
Arsenii Yatseniuk 1.0 1.0 0.6
Other candidate 11.3 7.1 4.9

 

Thoughts of the residents of Ukraine on who will become the next President

            The answers to the question “In your opinion, who will become the next President of Ukraine?” were distributed as follows:

  • 9.4% named Yulia Tymoshenko,

  • 8.2% – Petro Poroshenko,

  • 2.7% – Oleh Liashko,

  • 2.4% – Vadym Rabinovych,

  • 2.3% – Yurii Boiko,

  • 1.9% – Anatolii Hrytsenko,

  • 1.7% – Volodymyr Hroisman,

  •  0.8% – Andrii Sadovyi,

  •  0.8% – Oleh Tiahnybok,

  •  0.3% – Arsenii Yatseniuk,

  • 0.8% - named other candidates

  • 65.6% – have not decided on the answer,

  • 3.2% – refused to answer.

Commentary of the expert.   Volodymyr Paniotto, CEO of KIIS, professor of NaUKMA

Any list of applicants has the right to exist until the registration of parties and candidates has been completed; very often political forces check the electoral capabilities of certain candidates, even though they have not yet expressed their intentions to participate in the elections. Meanwhile, the rating of one or another candidate depends on how many candidates from the same electoral field are on the list: the more of them are there, the lower is the rating of each candidate. For example, if in the list to the question "Who, in your opinion, will be the next President of Ukraine?" there was no Groisman, and out of 1.7% of the votes received by Groisman, 1.3% moved to Poroshenko, then Poroshenko would be on the first place in the obtained results, not in the second place. Therefore, now, before the registration of candidates' lists, all the received data on ratings are conditional and depend on the list that is offered to the respondents.

           

 

Addition

Hereby there are the fragments of the questionnaire with the distribution of answers for the questions that were discussed in the press release.
The questions from the questionnaire are given in the order in which they were addressed to the respondents.

Imagine, please, that the parliamentary elections are being held now, and the representatives of the elections commission came to you with a ballot for voting. Will you vote?
IF “YES”, PASS THE CARD AND ASK: Whom would you vote for if the following parties participated? 

  

100% in column Ukraine in general West Center South East Donbas
Agrarian party of Ukraine (V.Skotsyk) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4
“Block of Petro Poroshenko “Solidarnist” 2.7 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.8 1.8
“Vidrodzhennia” (V.Bondar, H.Kernes, V.Homutynnik) 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
AU “Batkivshchyna” (Y.Tymoshenko) 9.1 8.3 7.2 10.6 15.3 0.3
AU “Svoboda” (O.Tiahnybok) 2.3 6.4 1.7 0.0 0.2 0.0
“Hromadianska pozytsia” (A.Hrytsenko) 3.8 6.9 3.6 1.2 2.6 0.4
“Za zhyttia” (V.Rabinovych, Y.Muraiev) 4.2 1.2 2.0 3.9 11.2 6.4
“Narodnyi front” (A.Yatseniuk, O.Turchynov, A.Parubii) 0.6 0.9 0.3 2.2 0.1 0.0
“Natsionalnyi korpus” (A.Biletskyi) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
“NASH KRAI” (.Mazurchak, .Kisse, .Kaltsev, .Hranaturov) 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Union “SAMOPOMICH” (.Sadovyi) 2.4 5.8 1.5 2.4 0.3 0.0
“Opozytsiynyi block” (Y.Boiko, B.Kolesnikov, Y.Vilkul) 5.0 1.5 2.2 4.4 8.4 26.1
“Osnova” (S.Taruta) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.8
Radical party of Oleh Liashko 5.6 5.2 7.4 6.3 3.2 2.7
“Rukh novykh syl” (M.Saakashvili) 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.0
Socialist party (S.Kaplin) 0.5 0.8 0.4 1.0 0.0 0.0
Ukrainian Union of patriots “UKROP” (T.Batenko, I.Palytsia, B.Filatov) 1.3 1.9 0.7 0.3 2.3 0.0
Other party 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.7 0.3 0.1
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE 16.7 14.2 18.8 20.3 15.0 15.0
WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT 5.0 3.4 4.0 9.5 6.2 4.6
DIFICULT TO SAY/HAVE NOT DECIDED YET 37.0 35.8 43.8 30.6 29.3 41.2
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1

 


Dynamics of the party ratings during the period from September 2017 to February 2018. % of all respondents

 

  September 2017 December 2017 February 2018
AU “Batkivshchyna” 6.4 6.5 9.1
Radical party of Oleh Liashko 3.2 3.8 5.6
“Opozytsiynyi block” 3.2 4.1 5.0
“Za jyttia” 4.6 3.9 4.2
“Hromadianska pozytsia” 3.1 3.3 3.8
“Block of Petro Poroshenko “Solidarnist” 4.8 5.0 2.7
“SAMOPOMICH” 3.4 2.8 2.4
AU “Svoboda” 2.8 2.0 2.3
“UKROP” 0.9 1.4 1.3
“Rukh novykh syl” 1.1 1.2 1.0
Agrarian party of Ukraine 0.7 1.2 0.7
“Narodnyi front” 0.7 0.7 0.6
Socialist party --- 0.5 0.5
“Vidrodzhennia” 0.6 0.5 0.4
“Osnova” --- --- 0.4
“NASH KRAI” 0.2 0.2 0.1
“Natsionalnyi korpus” 0.1 --- 0.1
Other party 3.5 0.6 0.4
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE 22.8 17.1 16.7
WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT 2.7 3.6 5.0
DIFICULT TO SAY/HAVE NOT DECIDED YET 34.1 38.7 37.0
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 1.2 2.8 0.9


Would you participate in voting, if the elections of the President of Ukraine were held now? IF “YES”, PASS THE CARD AND ASK: Whom would you vote for if the following candidates participated?

100% in column Ukraine in general West Center South East Donbas
Yurii Boiko 3.9 1.7 2.6 3.5 3.5 23.1
Anatolii Hrytsenko 5.0 8.0 5.1 2.4 3.6 0.4
Volodymyr Hroisman 1.7 2.5 1.4 2.4 1.2 0.2
Oleh Liashko 6.2 5.2 7.9 8.1 5.0 0.7
Petro Poroshenko 3.9 3.8 5.5 2.0 3.0 1.8
Vadym Rabinovych 3.8 1.0 1.2 3.4 12.1 3.9
Andrii Sadovyi 2.0 4.2 0.9 2.5 0.3 2.4
Yulia Tymoshenko 9.8 9.5 8.3 12.8 14.0 0.3
Oleh Tiahnybok 1.5 4.7 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0
Arsenii Yatseniuk 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0
Other candidate 1.9 3.1 1.7 2.1 1.1 0.7
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE 15.2 12.3 16.3 18.2 14.8 17.9
WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT 5.5 3.2 5.3 8.9 7.0 5.7
DIFICULT TO SAY/HAVE NOT DECIDED YET 38.3 39.3 42.1 31.9 32.8 43.0
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 1.0 1.3 0.5 1.9 1.3 0.1

 


Dynamics of candidates` ratings during the period from September 2017 to February 2018. % of all respondents

  September 2017 December 2017 February 2018
Yulia Tymoshenko 7.4 7.9 9.8
Oleh Liashko 3.4 3.5 6.2
Anatolii Hrytsenko 4.6 4.9 5.0
Petro Poroshenko 7.6 6.5 3.9
Yurii Boiko 3.1 3.6 3.9
Vadym Rabinovych 4 3.0 3.8
Andrii Sadovyi 3.1 3.2 2.0
Volodymyr Hroisman 1.8 1.4 1.7
Oleh Tiahnybok 1.5 1.2 1.5
Arsenii Yatseniuk 0.4 0.4 0.3
Other candidate 4.7 2.7 1.9
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE 19.9 15.3 15.2
WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT 3.1 4.5 5.5
DIFICULT TO SAY/HAVE NOT DECIDED YET 34 39.1 38.3
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 1.6 2.7 1.0

 


In your opinion, who will become the next president of Ukraine?

100% in column Ukraine in general West Center South East Donbas
Yurii Boiko 2.3 1.5 1.5 2.3 1.4 13.2
Anatolii Hrytsenko 1.9 3.7 1.7 0.4 1.1 0.0
Volodymyr Hroisman 1.7 1.6 2.5 1.3 1.2 0.0
Oleh Liashko 2.7 2.2 2.9 2.3 3.9 0.2
Petro Poroshenko 8.2 10.1 8.1 6.8 4.5 15.4
Vadym Rabinovych 2.4 0.7 0.5 3.0 8.2 0.3
Andrii Sadovyi 0.8 1.7 0.6 1.3 0.1 0.0
Yulia Tymoshenko 9.4 9.7 6.8 8.5 13.6 9.9
Oleh Tiahnybok 0.8 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arsenii Yatseniuk 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1
Other candidate 0.8 1.5 0.5 1.2 0.1 0.1
DIFICULT TO SAY/HAVE NOT DECIDED YET 65.6 61.0 70.5 70.5 62.4 59.4
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING 3.2 3.7 3.4 2.2 3.3 1.4

19.3.2018
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