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Migration intentions of the population of Ukraine in April 2018

Press release by Oleksii Lyshtva

 

According to a recent KIIS poll, 7% of adult Ukrainians plan to go abroad in the next six months for the long-term stays, work, study or emigration, but most of them have not taken any concrete steps for this yet. The most popular country among those who want to leave Ukraine is Poland.

 

On April 3- 20, 2018, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. Data were collected from 4005 respondents living in 110 settlements in all oblasts of Ukraine (except for the AR of Crimea) with the method of personal interviewing. The sample was stochastic, and it is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts survey was conducted only in the territories that are controlled by the Ukrainian government.

The statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and for a design effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 2.3% — for indexes close to 50%, 2% — for indexes close to 25%, 1.4% — for indexes close to 10%, 1% — for indexes close to 5%.

 

The majority of respondents (namely, 86%) are not going to travel abroad in the next 6 months for a long stay. Only 7% of respondents said they were going to leave, and 6% were hesitant. However, only 62% of respondents who plan to travel abroad have already made concrete steps for this.


Those polled who plan to go abroad could name one or more countries where they intend to move. The country with the largest share of those wishing to go abroad for a long-term stay in Poland (36%). Thrice fewer respondents chose the Czech Republic and Germany: 12% and 11%, respectively. Russia was named only by 7% of the polled, and the USA – by 6%. Italy and Canada as destinations for a long stay were chosen by 5% and 3% of respondents, respectively. Hungary and France were chosen by 2%. The last country that is closing ten of the most popular countries is Israel (1%). Other countries indicated no more than 1% of respondents.

16% of the polled have not decided with the country of transit, while the remaining 6% did not answer.


Moreover:

  • The amount of those who plan to go abroad is almost three times bigger among men than among women. The difference between men (11%) and women (4%) is 7 percentage points.
  • There is a relationship between the level of education and the desire to go abroad. People with higher education are more willing to consider going abroad for long stays - 10% of them think about it. Among people with full secondary education, and specialized secondary education these percentages are 7% and 6%, respectively. And among people with incomplete secondary and lower level of education, there is only 2% of those who plan to move.
  • The desire to go abroad depends directly on the age of the respondent. Young people are more likely to respond positively than older people do. Thus, there are 15% of those who plan to stay abroad among people aged 18-29 y.o., 10% - at the age of 30-44 y.o., 6% - at the age of 45-59 y.o., and 0% among people aged 60 and above.
  • In the West, more people are going to leave (11%) compared to other regions. In the Central, Southern and Eastern regions, this figure is 6%. The least amount of those who are going to leave is in the Donbass (2%).
  • The greatest number of those who want to go abroad is among people who are looking for a job (20%), students (15%) and self-employed (14%). However, among those who are in retirement, 1% of respondents consider the possibility of moving to another country.

 

Commentary of Volodymyr Paniotto

In December  2017. on the order of the “Dzerkalo Tyzhnia” magazine, we have already conducted studies on migration (see the article based on the materials of that study by Y.Mostov, S.Rahmanin, "Bleeding. Why Ukrainians Leave Their Country.” Dzerkalo Tyzhnia, January  27. 2018 https: // dt.ua/internal/krovotecha-chomu-ukrayinci-pokidayut-svoyu-krayinu-267394_.html). This study somewhat clarifies the situation. In December, 17% of the respondents expressed the willingness to move out for the question "Are you ready to leave the country?" (the sum of the first two responses in Table K1).

1.  Are you ready to leave the country?

Yes, and I am taking steps for that 6%
In general, I am ready but I have not taken any steps yet 11%
Not ready yet, but I would like to in case of favorable circumstances 20%
Not ready under any circumstances 57%
DIFFICULT TO SAY/DO NOT KNOW 6%

 

These are the people who are generally ready to leave temporarily or permanently for a short period or for a long time, that is, it is the maximum possible potential for emigration. This time (in April), we asked about those who are not only abstractly ready but who specifically plan to leave in the next 6 months. This category is close to that 6 % who are ready to leave and take some steps to this (the first answer in Table K1), now the amount of those who plan to leave is 7%, the difference is insignificant.

In December  2017. we also asked the question: "If you had a choice where to go for earnings for the same salary, where would you go first?" The relative majority of these potential emigrants named Germany (14% of those who are ready to leave) and Poland (13%). But in April  2018. among those who are really planning to leave, in the first place is Poland - 36%, followed by the Czech Republic (13%) and Germany (11%). This is the difference between dreams, an abstract desire ("if you had a choice ..") and a reality when such choice is limited. They would like to go to Germany, but the vast majority will go to Poland.

 

Addition 1. Formulation of the questions from the questionnaire

D8. Tell me, please, do you plan to go abroad for the long stay (over 3 months), work, studying or emigration in the next 6 months?

Yes 1
No 2
Difficult to say 3

 

D9. Which country do you plan to move in?

The USA 1
Canada 2
Great Britain 3
France 4
Germany 5
Italy 6
Spain 7
Portugal 8
Poland 9
Czech Republic 10
Russia 11
Other 12
Hungary 15
Sweden 16
Turkey 17
Slovakia 18
Norway 19
Lithuania 20
China 21
Israel 22
Bulgaria 23
Belgium 24
Belarus 25
I PLAN TO LEAVE BUT DO NOT KNOW WHERE YET 13
DIFFICULT TO SAY/DO NOT KNOW 14

 

D10. Tell me, please, have you already made concrete steps for this: searched for work, housing in this country, appealed to the state authorities for permits, etc.?

Yes 1
No 2
Difficult to say 3

Addition 2. Tables

Table 1. Do you plan to go abroad for the long stay (over 3 months), work, studying or emigration in the next 6 months?

  Ukraine in general, %
Yes  7.3
No  86.3
Difficult to say  6.5

 

Table 2. By regions, %:

  Western Central Southern Eastern Donbas
Yes  11.3  6.5  5.7  5.8  1.9
No  78.8  88.4  87.9  89.7  93.0
Difficult to say  9.9  5.2  6.4  4.5  5.1

 

Table 3. By sex, %:

  Men Women
Yes  11.1  4.1
No  8.1  91.4
Difficult to say  8.8  4.5

 

Table 4. By age, %:

  18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
Yes  15.0  10.0  5.8  0.5
No  74.2  80.3  89.5  97.9
Difficult to say  10.8  9.7  4.7  1.7

 

Table 5. By level of education, %:

  Incomplete secondary and lower Complete secondary Specialized secondary Higher
Yes  1.7  6.8  5.9  9.9
No  92.9  86.6  88.3  83.2
Difficult to say  5.4  6.5  5.8  6.8

 

Table 6. Have you already made concrete steps for this: searched for work, housing in this country, appealed to the state authorities for permits, etc.?

  Ukraine in general, % % out of those who plan to go abroad
Yes 5%  62.3
No 2%  29.8
Difficult to say 1%  7.9

Table 7. Which country do you plan to move in? (Respondent could have named more than one)

  Ukraine in general, % % out of those who plan to go abroad
Poland  2.6  35.6
Czech Republic  0.9  12.5
Germany  0.8  10.6
Russia  0.5  7.1
The USA  0.4  5.6
Italy  0.4  5.0
Canada  0.2  3.0
Hungary  0.2  2.1
France  0.1  1.7
Israel  0.1  1.4
Spain  0.1  1.2
Great Britain  0.1  1.2
Lithuania  0.1  0.8
Portugal  0.1  0.7
Slovakia  0.04  0.6
Belarus  0.03  0.5
Belgium  0.03  0.4
China  0.03  0.4
Bulgaria  0.03  0.4
Sweden  0.03  0.4
Norway  0.02  0.3
Turkey  0.02  0.3
I PLAN TO LEAVE BUT DO NOT KNOW WHERE YET  1.2  16.3
DIFFICULT TO SAY/DO NOT KNOW  0.4  5.6

 

Regarding the commentary contact, please, Oleksii Lyshtva: oleksii.lyshtva@kiis.com.ua

18.5.2018
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