KYIV
INTERNATIONAL
INSTITUTE of
SOCIOLOGY
sociological and
marketing
research
tel. 537-3376
office@kiis.com.ua

ESC or click to close

The rating of support for parties and political leaders: September 2018

Press release by Anton Hrushetskyi (+380501309989)

 

On September 8-23, 2018, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. Data were collected from 2026 respondents living in 110 settlements in all oblasts of Ukraine (except for the AR of Crimea) with the method of personal interviewing. The sample was stochastic, 4-staged, and it is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts survey was conducted only in the territories that are controlled by the Ukrainian government.

The statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and for a design effect of 1.5) does not exceed:

3.3% — for indexes close to 50%,

2.8% — for indexes close to 25%,

2.0% — for indexes close to 10%,

1.4% — for indexes close to 5%.

 

Preliminary comments: Commentary of Anton Hrushetskyi, Deputy Director of KIIS.

Until the registration of parties and candidates is not over, any list of applicants has the right to exist; very often political forces check the electoral capabilities of certain candidates, even in case they have not yet expressed their plans for participation in elections. Meanwhile, the rating of each candidate depends on how many candidates from the same electoral field are on the list, the more they are, the less the rating of each of the candidates is. Therefore, now, before the registration of the candidates’/parties’ lists, all received data about the ratings are conditional and depend on the list proposed to respondents.

Also, when interpreting the results, it is necessary to take into account the statistical error of the sample. If the difference between the candidates/parties is less than the statistical error, then it cannot be statistically confirmed that one of them has a higher support.

Another important aspect of the correct interpretation of data is the fact that all parties/candidates currently have a rather low level of support. The rating of individual parties/politicians does not exceed 10.6% of the total adult population of Ukraine, while the separation from the leading party/candidate to the one at the second place is about 4%. Therefore, in the context of the active election campaign and the high dynamism of the situation in the country, electoral moods can change significantly, especially given the considerable proportion of those who have not yet decided with the electoral intentions.

Electoral intentions of the population about the elections of the President of Ukraine

If the elections of the President of Ukraine had been held in September, then out of all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above:

  • 10.6% would have voted for Yulia Tymoshenko,
  •  6.5% – for Petro Poroshenko,
  •  6,5% – for Volodymyr Zelenskyi,
  •  6% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
  •  4.6% – for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk,
  •  4.4% – for Yurii Boiko,
  •  4.1% – for Vadym Rabinovych,
  •  3.7% – for Oleh Liashko,
  •  2.3% – for Andrii Sadovyi,
  •  1.1% – for Oleksandr Shevchenko,
  •  5.1% – for other candidates in total,
  •  4.9% – would have crossed out all the candidates, spoilt the ballot,
  • 12.4% – decided not to vote,
  • 26.6% – have not decided yet whom to vote for,
  •  1.3% – refused to answer the question.

      Calculating the percentages in the relation to those who decided with the choice (actually, these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in September), there will be the following results:

  • 19.3% would have voted for Yulia Tymoshenko,
  • 11.9% – for Petro Poroshenko,
  • 11.8% – for Volodymyr Zelenskyi,
  • 10.9% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
  • 8.4% – for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk,
  • 8.1% – for Yurii Boiko,
  • 7.5% – for Vadym Rabinovych,
  • 6.7% – for Oleh Liashko,
  • 4.2% – for Andrii Sadovyi,
  • 2% – for Oleksandr Shevchenko,
  • 9.3% – for other candidates in total.

Electoral intentions of the population about the elections to the Verkhovna Rada

If the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine had been held at the end of September, then out of all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above:

  • 9.2%  would have voted for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna”
  • 5.3% – for the party “Block Petra Poroshenka”,
  • 4.8% – for the party “Opozytsiynyi block”,
  • 4.4% – for the party “Za jyttia”,
  • 4.4% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsia”,
  • 3.9% – for the party “Sluha narodu”,
  • 3.8% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko,
  • 3.7% – for the party “Block Sviatoslava Vakarchuka”,
  • 1.9% – for the party “Obiednannia Samopomich”,
  • 1.6% – for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda”,
  • 4% – for other parties in total,
  • 6% – would have crossed out all the candidates, spoilt the ballot,
  • 14.4% – decided not to vote,
  • 31.7% – have not decided yet whom to vote for,
  • 1% – refused to answer the question.

Calculating the percentages in the relation to those who decided with the choice (actually, these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in mid-September), then 8 parties have the highest chances to enter the parliament:

  • 19.6%  would have voted for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Batkivshchyna”
  • 11.2% – for the party “Block Petra Poroshenka”,
  • 10.1% – for the party “Opozytsiynyi block”,
  • 9.3% – for the party “Za jyttia”,
  • 9.3% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsia”,
  • 8.2% – for the party “Sluha narodu”,
  • 8.1% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko,
  • 7.9% – for the party “Block Sviatoslava Vakarchuka”,
  • 4.1% – for the party “Obiednannia Samopomich”,
  • 3.5% – for the party “All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda”,
  • 8.6% – for other parties in total.

           


Addition

Below is a fragment of the questionnaire with the distribution of the respondents' answers to the questions that are published in the press release.
 
The questions are presented in the same order as they were provided to the respondents.
 
Imagine that the parliamentary elections are happening now, and you are visited by the representatives of the election commission. Here is the ballot for voting, will you vote? IF “YES”, HAND IN THE CARD AND ASK: What would be your choice if the following parties participated?
 
100% in a column Ukraine in general West Center South East Donbas
Agrarian party of Ukraine (V.Skotsyk)  0.6  0.9  0.8  0.6  0.2  0.0
Party “Block Sviatoslava Vakarchuka”  3.7  8.3  2.5  2.2  0.6  2.9
Party “Block Petra Poroshenka “Solidarnist”  5.3  5.9  6.8  4.3  2.8  3.7
Party “Vidrodzhennia” (V.Bondar, H.Kernes, V.Khomutynnik)  0.3  0.3  0.5  0.0  0.3  0.0
Party “All-Ukrainian union “Batkivshchyna” (Y.Tymoshenko)  9.2  10.6  11.5  7.2  5.3  5.7
Party “All-Ukrainian union “Svoboda” (O.Tiahnybok)  1.6  3.4  1.3  0.7  1.0  0.0
Party “Hromadsko-politychnyi rukh Valentyna Nalyvaichenka “Spravedlyvist”  0.2  0.4  0.1  0.0  0.4  0.0
Party “Hromadskyi rukh Mykoly Tomenka “Ridna kraina”  0.2  0.1  0.1  1.0  0.2  0.0
Party “Hromadianska pozytsia” (A.Hrytsenko)  4.4  5.5  5.8  3.7  2.2  0.3
Party “Demokratychnyi alians” (V.Hatsko, S.Leshchenko, M.Naiem, S.Zalishchuk)  0.1  0.0  0.2  0.0  0.0  0.0
Party “Za jyttia” (V.Rabinovych, Y.Murayev)  4.4  2.0  3.3  7.7  5.4  11.6
Party “Hromadsko-politychna platforma Nadii Savchenko”  0.2  0.0  0.2  0.6  0.0  0.6
Party “Narodnyi front” (A.Yatseniuk, A.Avakov, O.Turchynov)  0.3  0.7  0.0  0.0  0.2  0.6
Party “Natsionalnyi rukh “Derzhavnytska initsiatyva Yarosha”  0.2  0.4  0.1  0.0  0.0  0.0
Party “Nash krai” (co-heads: O.Mazurchak, O.Feldman, A.Kisse, S.Kaltsev, Y.Hranaturov)  0.2  0.0  0.0  0.3  0.3  2.2
Party “Natsionalnyi korpus” (A.Biletskyi)  0.1  0.2  0.1  0.3  0.0  0.0
Party “Pravyi sector” (A.Tarasenko)  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0
Party “Obiednannia “Samopomich” (A.Sadovyi)  1.9  2.9  1.5  4.3  0.7  0.0
Party “Opozytsiynyi block” (Y.Boiko, B.Kolesnikov, Y.Vilkul, M.Dobkin)  4.8  2.1  3.3  5.2  8.6  11.8
Party “Osnova” (S.Taruta, A.Nikolaienko)  0.4  0.2  0.2  0.0  0.3  4.0
Party “Rukh novykh syl” (M.Saakashvili)  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.2  0.0
Party “Sluha narodu” (V.Zelenskyi)  3.9  4.3  3.3  5.2  2.3  8.1
Party “Ukrainske obiednannia patriotiv UKROP” (I.Kolomoiskyi, H.Korban, B.Filatov)  0.8  0.8  0.1  1.7  1.8  0.0
Radical party of Oleh Liashko  3.8  4.3  3.8  3.4  2.1  7.4
For another party  0.3  0.3  0.3  0.5  0.2  0.3
WOULD CROSS OUT ALL THE PARTIES/WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT  6.0  6.5  4.8  9.1  6.0  5.2
DIFFICULT TO SAY/UNDECIDED  31.7  29.7  34.0  24.0  38.6  18.4
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING  1.0  0.8  1.5  0.7  0.8  0.0
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE IN VOTING  14.4  9.4  13.8  17.2  19.6  17.2

 

% among those who are going to and determined which party to vote


 
100% in a column
Ukraine in general West Center South East Donbas
Agrarian party of Ukraine (V.Skotsyk) 1,3 1,7 1,7 1,3 0,5 0,0
Party “Block Sviatoslava Vakarchuka” 7,9 15,5 5,6 4,5 1,8 5,0
Party “Block Petra Poroshenka “Solidarnist” 11,2 11,0 14,9 8,7 7,9 6,3
Party “Vidrodzhennia” (V.Bondar, H.Kernes, V.Khomutynnik) 0,7 0,6 1,2 0,0 1,0 0,0
Party “All-Ukrainian union “Batkivshchyna” (Y.Tymoshenko) 19,6 19,9 25,1 14,7 15,3 9,7
Party “All-Ukrainian union “Svoboda” (O.Tiahnybok) 3,5 6,4 2,7 1,5 2,7 0,0
Party “Hromadsko-politychnyi rukh Valentyna Nalyvaichenka “Spravedlyvist” 0,5 0,8 0,3 0,0 1,2 0,0
Party “Hromadskyi rukh Mykoly Tomenka “Ridna kraina” 0,5 0,3 0,3 2,1 0,5 0,0
Party “Hromadianska pozytsia” (A.Hrytsenko) 9,3 10,2 12,6 7,5 6,1 0,5
Party “Demokratychnyi alians” (V.Hatsko, S.Leshchenko, M.Naiem, S.Zalishchuk) 0,1 0,0 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0
Party “Za jyttia” (V.Rabinovych, Y.Murayev) 9,3 3,7 7,2 15,7 15,4 19,5
Party “Hromadsko-politychna platforma Nadii Savchenko” 0,3 0,0 0,3 1,3 0,0 1,0
Party “Narodnyi front” (A.Yatseniuk, A.Avakov, O.Turchynov) 0,5 1,3 0,0 0,0 0,5 1,0
Party “Natsionalnyi rukh “Derzhavnytska initsiatyva Yarosha” 0,3 0,7 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0
Party “Nash krai” (co-heads: O.Mazurchak, O.Feldman, A.Kisse, S.Kaltsev, Y.Hranaturov) 0,5 0,0 0,0 0,7 0,8 3,6
Party “Natsionalnyi korpus” (A.Biletskyi) 0,3 0,4 0,3 0,7 0,0 0,0
Party “Pravyi sector” (A.Tarasenko) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Party “Obiednannia “Samopomich” (A.Sadovyi) 4,1 5,4 3,2 8,8 1,9 0,0
Party “Opozytsiynyi block” (Y.Boiko, B.Kolesnikov, Y.Vilkul, M.Dobkin) 10,1 3,8 7,1 10,6 24,5 20,0
Party “Osnova” (S.Taruta, A.Nikolaienko) 0,9 0,3 0,3 0,0 0,9 6,8
Party “Rukh novykh syl” (M.Saakashvili) 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,5 0,0
Party “Sluha narodu” (V.Zelenskyi) 8,2 7,9 7,2 10,5 6,7 13,7
Party “Ukrainske obiednannia patriotiv UKROP” (I.Kolomoiskyi, H.Korban, B.Filatov) 1,8 1,6 0,2 3,5 5,0 0,0
Radical party of Oleh Liashko 8,1 8,0 8,4 7,0 6,1 12,5
For another party 0,6 0,5 0,6 1,0 0,6 0,5

 
Imagine that the elections of the President of Ukraine are happening now, and you are visited by the representatives of the election commission. Here is the ballot for voting, will you vote? IF “YES”, HAND IN THE CARD AND ASK: What would be your choice if the following candidates participated?

100% in a column Ukraine in general West Center South East Donbas
Roman Bezsmertnyi  0.5  0.6  0.7  0.0  0.4  1.0
Andrii Biletskyi  0.0  0.1  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0
Inna Bohoslovska  0.2  0.5  0.0  0.3  0.2  0.0
Yurii Boiko  4.4  2.4  3.0  4.6  6.7  13.5
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk  4.6  7.6  4.3  2.6  2.5  3.8
Anatolii Hrytsenko  6.0  7.1  8.4  3.4  3.2  1.1
Yurii Derevianko  0.3  0.0  0.1  0.0  1.2  0.0
Volodymyr Zelenskyi  6.5  8.5  4.4  5.2  7.1  9.6
Serhii Kaplin  0.2  0.0  0.5  0.3  0.0  0.3
Vitalii Kuprii  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0
Oleh Liashko  3.7  4.2  3.2  5.0  1.9  7.4
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko  0.2  0.1  0.3  0.5  0.2  0.3
Petro Poroshenko  6.5  7.9  7.7  4.4  4.2  5.4
Vadym Rabimovych  4.1  1.7  3.8  6.9  4.6  9.7
Andrii Sadovyi  2.3  4.9  1.2  4.3  0.0  1.0
Petro Symonenko  0.3  0.2  0.1  0.0  0.6  1.8
Serhii Taruta  0.6  0.1  0.4  0.5  0.2  4.4
Mykola Tomenko  0.3  0.0  0.5  0.9  0.2  0.0
Yulia Tymoshenko  10.6  11.3  13.4  7.6  8.1  5.0
Oleh Tiahnybok  0.9  1.3  1.1  0.0  0.5  1.0
Viktor Chumak  0.1  0.3  0.1  0.0  0.0  0.0
Oleksandr Shevchenko  1.1  2.9  0.6  0.9  0.0  0.0
Dmytro Yarosh  0.1  0.0  0.2  0.0  0.0  0.3
Other  1.2  1.1  0.7  1.3  2.3  1.1
WOULD CROSS OUT ALL THE CANDIDATES/WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT  4.9  4.5  3.4  8.8  6.1  3.9
DIFFICULT TO SAY/UNDECIDED  26.6  24.3  28.8  22.8  31.6  14.8
DENIAL FROM ANSWERING  1.3  1.0  1.6  1.5  1.2  0.9
WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE IN VOTING  12.4  7.3  11.4  18.2  17.1  13.6

 
 
% among those who are going to and determined which candidate to vote

100% in a column Ukraine in general West Center South East Donbas
Roman Bezsmertnyi 1,0 0,9 1,3 0,0 0,9 1,6
Andrii Biletskyi 0,1 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Inna Bohoslovska 0,4 0,8 0,0 0,6 0,5 0,0
Yurii Boiko 8,1 3,9 5,6 9,5 15,1 20,3
Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 8,4 12,1 7,9 5,3 5,7 5,6
Anatolii Hrytsenko 10,9 11,3 15,3 6,9 7,3 1,7
Yurii Derevianko 0,5 0,0 0,2 0,0 2,8 0,0
Volodymyr Zelenskyi 11,8 13,5 8,0 10,6 16,2 14,4
Serhii Kaplin 0,4 0,0 1,0 0,7 0,0 0,4
Vitalii Kuprii 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Oleh Liashko 6,7 6,7 5,8 10,2 4,2 11,0
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 0,5 0,2 0,5 1,0 0,5 0,4
Petro Poroshenko 11,9 12,5 14,0 9,0 9,6 8,1
Vadym Rabimovych 7,5 2,8 6,9 14,2 10,4 14,5
Andrii Sadovyi 4,2 7,8 2,2 8,8 0,0 1,5
Petro Symonenko 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,0 1,3 2,7
Serhii Taruta 1,0 0,2 0,8 1,0 0,4 6,6
Mykola Tomenko 0,6 0,0 0,9 1,9 0,4 0,0
Yulia Tymoshenko 19,3 18,0 24,4 15,7 18,3 7,5
Oleh Tiahnybok 1,6 2,0 2,0 0,0 1,1 1,6
Viktor Chumak 0,2 0,5 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0
Oleksandr Shevchenko 2,0 4,6 1,0 1,9 0,0 0,0
Dmytro Yarosh 0,1 0,0 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,4
Other 2,2 1,8 1,3 2,7 5,1 1,7

For comments, please contact Anton Grushetsky: +380501309989


26.9.2018
Go up | Back
FILTR BY DATE
Year:
Month: