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The rating of support for parties and political leaders: September 2018

Press release by Anton Hrushetskyi

 

On September 8-23, 2018, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. Data were collected from 2026 respondents living in 110 settlements in all oblasts of Ukraine (except for the AR of Crimea) with the method of personal interviewing. The sample was stochastic, 4-staged, and it is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts survey was conducted only in the territories that are controlled by the Ukrainian government.

The statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and for a design effect of 1.5) does not exceed:

3.3% — for indexes close to 50%,

2.8% — for indexes close to 25%,

2.0% — for indexes close to 10%,

1.4% — for indexes close to 5%.

 

Preliminary comments: Commentary of Anton Hrushetskyi, Deputy Director of KIIS.

Until the registration of parties and candidates is not over, any list of applicants has the right to exist; very often political forces check the electoral capabilities of certain candidates, even in case they have not yet expressed their plans for participation in elections. Meanwhile, the rating of each candidate depends on how many candidates from the same electoral field are on the list, the more they are, the less the rating of each of the candidates is. Therefore, now, before the registration of the candidates’/parties’ lists, all received data about the ratings are conditional and depend on the list proposed to respondents.

Also, when interpreting the results, it is necessary to take into account the statistical error of the sample. If the difference between the candidates/parties is less than the statistical error, then it cannot be statistically confirmed that one of them has a higher support.

Another important aspect of the correct interpretation of data is the fact that all parties/candidates currently have a rather low level of support. The rating of individual parties/politicians does not exceed 10.6% of the total adult population of Ukraine, while the separation from the leading party/candidate to the one at the second place is about 4%. Therefore, in the context of the active election campaign and the high dynamism of the situation in the country, electoral moods can change significantly, especially given the considerable proportion of those who have not yet decided with the electoral intentions.

Electoral intentions of the population about the elections of the President of Ukraine

If the elections of the President of Ukraine had been held in September, then out of all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above:

  • 10.6% would have voted for Yulia Tymoshenko,
  •  6.5% – for Petro Poroshenko,
  •  6,5% – for Volodymyr Zelenskyi,
  •  6% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,
  •  4.6% – for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk,
  •  4.4% – for Yurii Boiko,
  •  4.1% – for Vadym Rabinovych,
  •  3.7% – for Oleh Liashko,
  •  2.3% – for Andrii Sadovyi,
  •  1.1% – for Oleksandr Shevchenko,
  •  5.1% – for other candidates in total,
  •  4.9% – would have crossed out all the candidates, spoilt the ballot,
  • 12.4% – decided not to vote,
  • 26.6% – have not decided yet whom to vote for,
  •  1.3% – refused to answer the question.

Details

26.9.2018
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