On January 22, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. Computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) were used to interview 1,005 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers. The sample is representative for the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the survey was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.

The statistical error of the sample (with a probability of 0.95 and without taking into account the design effect) does not exceed: 3.1% - for indicators close to 50%, 2.7% - for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% - for indicators close to 12%, 1.4% - for indicators close to 5%.

In what direction things are moving in the country 

To the question "In your opinion, are things going in the right or wrong direction in Ukraine now?" 74.3% of respondents answer that things are moving in the wrong direction. Believe that things are moving in the right direction - 10%. The remaining 15.7% of respondents were undecided or refused to answer the question.  

Electoral moods of the population regarding the election of the President of Ukraine: the first round

If the election of the President of Ukraine took place in the second half of January 2021 and candidates listed in Table  1 participated in them, V. Zelenskyi would receive relatively the most votes – 13.4% among all respondents and 19.8% among those who decided on the choice. In the second place - P. Poroshenko, who would be supported by 10.6% of all respondents and 15.7% among those who decided on the choice.

Next are Yuliia Tymoshenko (respectively, 8% and 11.8%), Yu. Boiko (7.4% and 11%), I. Smeshko (6% and 8.9%), V. Medvedchuk (5% and 7.5%), V. Hroisman (3,9% and 5,8%).

Table 1

Rating of candidates for the post of President of Ukraine

Electoral moods of the population regarding the election of the President of Ukraine: the second round

Respondents were modeled on two pairs of the second round: V. Zelenskyi and P. Poroshenko and P. Poroshenko and Yu. Boiko.

In the pair of V. Zelenskyi and P. Poroshenko, 30.6% of all respondents would support V. Zelenskyi, and 24.9% of respondents would vote for P. Poroshenko. In terms of those who decided on the choice, 55.2% would support V. Zelenskyi, and 44.8% - Poroshenko. The difference between the candidates exceeds the error, so in such a pair as of the end of January V. Zelenskyi is gaining more.

In the pair of Yu. Boiko and P. Poroshenko, 33.9% of all respondents would vote for Yu. Boiko, and 30.1% - for P. Poroshenko. Among those who decided on the choice, 53% would vote for Yu. Boiko, 47% - for P. Poroshenko. However, the difference between the candidates is within the error, so formally, according to the results of the survey, they have approximately the same support.

Electoral moods of the population regarding the elections to the Verkhovna Rada           

If the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in the second half of January and the parties listed in Table 2 participated in them, relatively the most votes would get the party "OPZZh", for which 15.7% of all respondents would vote and 20.7% among those who decided on the choice. In the second place - "YeS", which is supported by 11.6% of all respondents and 15.3% of those who decided on the choice. The third place is shared by "Batkivshchyna" (respectively, 9.5% and 12.6%) and "Sluha Narodu" (8.5% and 11.2%).

Also gaining more than 5% of the pass barrier "Syla I Chest" (6.3% and 8.3%), "Holos" (4.2% and 5.6%) and "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" (4% and 5.3%).

Close to the passage barrier are "Sharii’s Party" (3.5% and 4.6%), "UDAR" (3.3% and 4.4%) and "Svoboda" (2.9% and 3.8%). Other parties have lower support.

Table 2

Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

Annex 1. Формулювання і порядок запитань з анкети

In your opinion, things are going in the right or wrong direction in Ukraine now? (% among all respondents) 

Imagine that the election of the President of Ukraine is taking place now, and representatives of the election commission come to you with a bulletin, which includes such candidates…. Would you vote or not? IF “YES”: And which candidate would you vote for? (% among all respondents) 

(% among the respondents who are going to vote and decided on the choice)

It is unknown at this time which candidates would ran in the second round of the presidential election in Ukraine in the near future. I will read you a couple, and you tell me which of these candidates you would vote for if they went to the second round.

Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Petro Poroshenko (% among all respondents) 

Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Petro Poroshenko (% among the respondents who decided on the choice) 

YuriiBoikoand Petro Poroshenko (% among all respondents) 

YuriiBoikoand Petro Poroshenko (% among the respondents who decided on the choice) 

And now imagine that elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine are taking place now, and representatives of the election commission came to you with a bulletin that includes such parties…. Would you vote or not? IF “YES”: And which party would you vote for? (% among all respondents) 

(% among the respondents who are going to vote and decided on the choice)