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Rating of candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine: the results of a telephone survey conducted on February 5-7, 2021
During February 5-7, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own regular all-Ukrainian public opinion poll "Omnibus". By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile telephone numbers 2005 respondents were interviewed living in all regions of Ukraine (except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea). The sample is representative for the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the survey was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.
Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1% - for indicators close to 5%.
One of the clients ordered the inclusion in the "Omnibus" of a question about the presidential ratings in the first round. The results obtained are presented below.
At the client's request, the respondent was offered a list of possible candidates for the presidential election shown in Table 1 (simulating the situation that these candidates will take part in the first round of the presidential election), and the respondent had to choose the candidate for whom he would vote.
Among these candidates V. Zelenskyi would receive relatively the most votes, with 16.2% of all respondents and 22.7% of those who decided on the choice. In second place would be P. Poroshenko - 13.1% among all respondents and 18.3% among those who decided. In third place - Yuliia Tymoshenko, with indicators of 10.3% and 14.5%, respectively.
Next are Yu. Boiko (respectively, 8.1% and 11.4%), I. Smeshko (5.9% and 8.2%), V. Medvedchuk (3.7% and 5.1%), V. Hroisman (3.2% and 4.5%), A. Hrytsenko (2.9% and 4.1%). Other candidates have lower support.
Rating of candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine
Comment of KIIS experts:
First, please note that this survey was conducted by the method of telephone interviews. KIIS regularly emphasizes that the survey method may to some extent affect the results, so when analyzing these results (and especially in comparison with other researches), this aspect should be carefully considered. In particular, respondents who participate in telephone surveys are more educated and wealthier than respondents in face-to-face surveys (for example, 10% more people with higher education). Because of this, the ratings in researches conducted by different methods are slightly different. For example, in telephone polls, P. Poroshenko's support is slightly higher than in a face-to-face poll, and it is unknown which data is more accurate, because there was no census and distribution of the population by education is unknown.
Second, the list of candidates has a significant impact, as each list simulates a unique situation for the respondent. If in the case of party lists the situation is more or less predictable (i.e. known top parties, which are usually included by companies in the lists offered to respondents), then in the case of presidential candidates there is much more uncertainty. Until the registration of candidates is completed, each list has a right to exist and represents a certain modeling of elections. Direct comparison with the results of other researches is possible only if the lists of candidates coincide in principle.
Annex 1. Formulation and order of questions from the questionnaire
And now imagine that the presidential elections are also taking place in which participate: [READ CANDIDATES RANDOMLY]. Would you take part in the election or not? IF “YES”: Which candidate would you vote for? ONE ANSWER (% among all respondents)
(% among the respondents who are going to vote and decided)