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Geopolitical orientations of residents of Ukraine: June 2021
The press release was prepared by Yuliia Sakhno From June 8 to 9, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a public opinion poll "Omnibus" by CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews) method based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers. The sample is representative for the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. 2007 interviews were conducted during the survey. Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% - for indicators close to 25%, 1.5 % - for indicators close to 10%.
The attitude of residents of Ukraine to the issue of Ukraine's accession to the EU As of June 2021, Ukraine's accession to the European Union is supported by about half of the country's population: answering the question of what they would do if a referendum was held on whether to join the European Union at this time, 52% of respondents indicated that they would vote for Ukraine's accession to the EU, 19% - against, and 29% were undecided or would not vote. Assuming that those who did not decide would not vote in the referendum on EU accession, 71% of all those who have the right to vote and live in the territories controlled by the Ukrainian authorities and the votes cast would be distributed in this way (in fact, these indicators are the closest to the possible results of the referendum, if it was held in June 2021[1]): for accession to the EU - 73% of votes, against – 27%. [1] Since in this question and in the questions below, we are not asking about voting on the coming Sunday, but are asking to say how the respondent would have voted if the vote had taken place right now, it is a kind of imitation of a referendum. Therefore, the answer "difficult to say" actually means non-participation in the referendum.
The readiness of residents of Ukraine to vote for accession to the European Union in recent years has remained relatively stable: about half of the population is willing to vote for Ukraine's accession to the EU, about a quarter - against accession.
* The average annual indicator for 2015-2017 is given. In 2018, the question was not asked. As before, the attitude to the issue of Ukraine's accession to the EU differs markedly depending on the region: residents of the western (70% of the region's residents are ready to vote for EU accession) and central (58%) regions support accession to the EU the most, and to a lesser extent - residents of the southern (39%) and eastern (29%) regions of Ukraine. The attitude of the residents of Ukraine to the issue of Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union The majority of Ukrainians are against Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union: if a referendum on whether Ukraine to access to Customs Union was held in June 2021, 22% of Ukrainians would vote for Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union, against – 45%, and 33% were undecided or would not participate in such a referendum. If those who did not decide did not come to the referendum on accession to the Customs Union, about 67% of all eligible voters living in the territories controlled by the Ukrainian authorities would take part in the voting, and the votes cast would be distributed as follows (actually , these indicators are the closest to the possible results of the referendum, if it was held in June 2021): for accession to the Customs Union - 33% of votes, against - 67% of votes. [1] Western region: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Chernivtsi regions; Central region: Kyiv city, Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv regions; Southern region: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson regions; Eastern region: Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk regions(without temporarily occupied territories).
The percentage of those ready to vote for Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union has not changed compared to the previous poll in 2019, and remains significantly lower than the percentage of opponents of Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union. * The average annual indicator for 2015-2016 is given. In 2018 and 2020, thequestion was not asked. Ukraine's accession to the Customs Union is somewhat more supported by residents of the eastern and southern regions: in the western region, 8% of the population would vote for accession to the Customs Union, in the central - 18%, in the southern - 33%,in the eastern – 41%. The desired direction of foreign policy In addition to being asked about possible actions in the event of referendums on accession to the European Union and the Customs Union, respondents were asked to answer which foreign policy direction they generally consider more desirable for Ukraine. According to the poll, the preferred direction of foreign policy, according to the majority, is Ukraine's accession to the EU (51%). 12% of Ukrainians consider the course of joining the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia to be desirable. A significant part (28%) are of the opinion that Ukraine should develop independently without joining any of these associations.
Despite some fluctuations, public opinion on the desired course of foreign policy has remained virtually unchanged over the past six years: the majority of the population considers it desirable to join the EU, the next most common option is not to join the EU or the Customs Union, and the least common is to join the Customs Union.
* The average annual indicator for 2015-2017 is given.
The attitude of the residents of Ukraine to the issue of Ukraine's accession to NATO Almost half of the population supports Ukraine's accession to NATO: if a referendum on Ukraine's accession to NATO was held in June 2021, 48% of respondents said they would vote for Ukraine's accession to NATO, 24% - against; the rest (28%) were undecided or would not take part in such a referendum. Therefore, if the referendum on Ukraine's accession to NATO was held in June 2021, and all those who decided on their choice took part in the voting, the turnout would be about 72%, and the votes of the participants would be divided in this way: 66% of votes - for Ukraine's accession to NATO, 34% - against.
Over the past two years, readiness to vote for accession to NATO has increased somewhat: the proportion of residents of the country who have expressed readiness to vote for accession to NATO has increased from 40% in 2019 to 48% in 2021.
* The average annual indicator for 2017 is given. As before, there is no regional agreement on NATO accession. Residents of the western and central regions are the most supportive of accession to NATO: in the western region, 66% would vote for accession to NATO, and in the central region - 53%. In the southern regions, 34% support accession to NATO, while 35% oppose it. In the East, the majority (47%) oppose Ukraine's accession to NATO, 25% - support.
Comment by KIIS Director General Volodymyr Paniotto In the 2021 surveys, we record the difference between the results of telephone surveys and personal "face-to-face" surveys. The analysis shows that this difference is due to the fact that in telephone surveys a slightly higher percentage of people with higher education and a lower percentage of the poor. Unfortunately, the census has not been conducted in Ukraine for 19 years, so we cannot determine which results are more reliable - telephone surveys or "face-to-face" surveys. Our press release shows a decrease in the number of opponents of EU accession (from 26% to 19%), and a decrease in the number of opponents of NATO accession (from 31% to 24%), but we cannot be sure that such a decrease is really happened. The fact is that all data up to 2021 (even 2020 data) were obtained through "face-to-face" surveys, and data from 2021 - through telephone surveys. It is possible that part of this decline (or even the entire decline) is due to a change in the survey method (telephone surveys have more educated and wealthy people who are more supportive of EU and NATO accession). Therefore, reducing the percentage of EU and NATO opponents is a hypothesis rather than a proven fact.
ANNEX. Tables
Table 1. " Please imagine that a referendum is currently taking place on whether Ukraine should access to the European Union. You can vote for accession to this union, against accession or abstain - not to take part in voting. What is your choice?", %
Data are given for Ukraine, except for the temporarily occupied territories (excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions).
Table2. "Please imagine that a referendum is currently taking place on whether Ukraine should access to the European Union. You can vote for accession to this union, against accession or abstain - not to take part in voting. What is your choice?" - June 2021, distribution by regions, %
Data are given for Ukraine, except for the temporarily occupied territories (excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions). Western region: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Chernivtsi regions; Central region: Kyiv city, Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv regions; Southern region: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson regions; Eastern region: Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk regions(without temporarily occupied territories).
Table 3. "And if a referendum was held now on whether Ukraine should access to the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Whatever your choice is - to vote for accession to this union, against accession or abstain - not to take part in voting?", %
Data are given for Ukraine, except for the temporarily occupied territories (excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions).
Table 4. "And if a referendum was held now on whether Ukraine should access to the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Whatever your choice is - to vote for accession to this union, against accession or abstain - not to take part in voting?" - June 2021, distribution by regions, %
Data are given for Ukraine, except for the temporarily occupied territories (excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions). Western region: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Chernivtsi regions; Central region: Kyiv city, Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv regions; Southern region: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson regions; Eastern region: Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk regions(without temporarily occupied territories).
Table 5. "In your opinion, what is the direction of Ukraine's foreign policy", %
Data are given for Ukraine, except for the temporarily occupied territories (excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions).
Table 6. "In your opinion, what is the direction of Ukraine's foreign policy", June 2021, distribution by regions, %
Data are given for Ukraine, except for the temporarily occupied territories (excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions). Western region: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Chernivtsi regions; Central region: Kyiv city, Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv regions; Southern region: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson regions; Eastern region: Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk regions(without temporarily occupied territories).
Table7. "And if there was a referendum now on whether to access to NATO. Whatever your choice is - to vote for accession to this union, against accession or abstain - not to take part in voting?", %
Data are given for Ukraine, except for the temporarily occupied territories (excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions).
Table8. " And if there was a referendum now on whether to access to NATO. Whatever your choice is - to vote for accession to this union, against accession or abstain - not to take part in voting?", June 2021, distribution by regions, %
Data are given for Ukraine, except for the temporarily occupied territories (excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions). Western region: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Chernivtsi regions; Central region: Kyiv city, Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv regions; Southern region: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson regions; Eastern region: Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk regions(without temporarily occupied territories).
18.7.2021
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