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Dynamics of the rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and candidates in the elections of the President of Ukraine: the results of a telephone survey conducted on September 10-15, 2021
As long as parties and candidates have not been registered, any list of candidates has a right to exist. Meanwhile, the rating of a candidate depends on how many candidates from the same electoral field are on the list - the more of them, the lower the rating of each candidate. The same applies to parties. In addition, who is considered the party leader plays a significant role. Therefore, now, before the registration of the lists of candidates / parties, all the obtained data on the ratings are conditional and depend on the list offered to the respondents. At the same time, the more different the lists, the less reasonable is the comparison of the results obtained with different lists. In addition, the results of the survey are influenced by a number of factors, such as the survey method (telephone survey or face-to-face survey, and "inside" these methods are also affected by a specific implementation - for example, completely random sampling or quota sampling), the order and context of the questions in the questionnaire (including the influence of which question is asked earlier - about the parliamentary or presidential elections), etc. The survey method has a particularly significant impact. Respondents interviewed by telephone interviews are more affluent, have a slightly higher level of education, and are slightly more active than respondents interviewed by face-to-face interviews. As a result, it may affect the ratings of individual political forces. However, due to the lack of a census, there is no reliable data on the share of people with higher education, etc., which would allow us to understand which of the methods is more accurate. Some experiments in 2019 showed that personal interviews were more accurate, but now, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors, the situation could change.
As a result, often surveys conducted by different companies, as well as surveys conducted by the same company, cannot be correctly compared with each other due to these factors. That is, such surveys give a reliable overview of the current situation, but more problematic is the analysis in the dynamics.
The purpose of the survey was to find out the dynamics of the rating of parties in the parliamentary elections and candidates in the presidential elections compared to previous polls. To obtain the correct dynamics, the current survey used a similar list of parties as in the surveys conducted in June 2021, April 2021, February 2021 and December 2020. A similar list of candidates was also used as in the June 2021 and April 2021 polls. Although since December 2020 the political situation in the country is quite dynamic, which, in particular, involves "updating" the lists, but the lists were deliberately left identical for a correct analysis of the dynamics. All polls were conducted in an identical manner and all polls had a similar order of questions (first about the parliamentary elections, then about the presidential elections). Then the ratings of the parties in the parliamentary elections are considered first, then in the presidential elections.
Table 1 shows the rating of parties if the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in early June and these parties participated in them. In addition, a comparison of the ranking of parties a comparison of the rating of parties with the results of previous surveys is given. The asterisk * and bold are the ratings of September 10-15 and June 1-7, which are statistically significantly (i.e., above error) differ. That is, these are cases when the results of the survey on September 10-15 indicate a significant change.
As of September 10-15 the "Sluha Narodu" party has relatively the most support, supported by 13.4% among all respondents and 20% among those who are going to vote and decided on their choice, as well as "Yevropeiska Solidarnist", which is supported by 11.6% among all respondents and 17.4% among those who decided on the choice. The difference in support for these parties is within the statistical error, i.e. formally, according to the results of the survey, these parties with approximately the same support "share" the first and second place (a similar situation was in June this year). The third and fourth places are shared by "OPZZh" (7.8% and 11.6%) and "Batkivshchyna" (7.2% and 10.8%) (the difference in support for these two parties is within the statistical error). The "Syla i Chest" party would also overcome the entry barrier (5.2% and 7.8%, respectively). Formally, also gaining at least 5% the "Opozytsiinyi Blok" (leaders were Ye. Muraiev and V. Novynskyi) (3.7% and 5.5%), the Radical Party (3.3% and 5%), "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" (3.3% and 5%)
In the case of almost all parties, the changes compared to June are within the statistical error, i.e. formally the current ratings of all political forces do not differ from the ratings as of June (at the same time, there were no statistically significant changes between April and June). The only exception is the "Holos" party, which support fell from 1.5% to 0.4% among all respondents and from 2.1% to 0.6% among those who decided on the choice.
At the same time, if in June the "Opozytsiinyi Blok", the Radical Party, and "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" formally had less than 5% support, now they formally have 5% or more support, i.e. they would pass to parliament with such a result.
Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
Table 2 shows the rating of candidates in the presidential election in the first round, if these candidates participated in the election. A similar list of candidates was used in the polls in June and April, so the data are compared with these polls.
In the presidential election, if they took place in mid-September and if these candidates participated in them, V. Zelenskyi would receive the most support - 25.4% among all respondents and 33.3% among those who are going to vote and decided on the choice. In second place - P. Poroshenko, who would be supported by 12.8% among all respondents and 16.8% among those who decided. Next are Yuliia Tymoshenko (respectively, 7.8% and 10.3%), Yu. Boiko (7.2% and 9.5%) and I. Smeshko (6.6% and 8.7%). Support for other candidates is lower.
Compared to June, changes in the case of all candidates - within the statistical error, i.e. formally the current ratings do not differ from the ratings as of June 1-7.
Rating of candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine, 2021.
Comment by Anton Hrushetskyi, Deputy Director of KIIS:
The obtained results allow to record trends in public moods, but at the same time do not provide information on the specific reasons for the stabilization / dynamics of ratings, this requires separate research. It can be assumed that the increase in the government's rating between February and April is a consequence of the government's active (at least in the media) activity. At the same time, the fact that there were virtually no significant changes between April and September may indicate that the government's recent measures are less effective in furthering support. Although it is possible that these measures currently have a stabilizing effect, i.e. although they do not contribute to the growth of the rating, but at least keep at a certain level. It should also be borne in mind that as the issue of raising utility tariffs is being discussed now and as the heating season is coming soon (as well as other important issues for the population are being discussed), we will see more significant dynamics of ratings in the coming months.
Annex 1. Formulation and order of questions from the questionnaire
Please imagine that elections to the Verkhovna Rada are taking place now, in which such parties participat: [READ THE LIST. READ PARTIES RANDOMLY. BE SURE TO READ THE LEADERS]. Would you take part in the election or not? IF "YES": Which party would you vote for? ONE RESPONSE
(% among all respondents)
(% among the respondents who are going to vote and decided)
And now imagine that the presidential election is taking place now, in which participate: [READ CANDIDATES RANDOMLY]. Would you take part in the election or not? IF "YES": Which candidate would you vote for? ONE RESPONSE
(% among all respondents)
(% among the respondents who are going to vote and decided)