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Socio-political moods of the population of Ukraine: elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and assessment of the economic situation based on the results of a telephone survey conducted on October 15-18, 2021

On October 15-18, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile telephone numbers (with random generation of telephone numbers and subsequent statistical weighing) were interviewed 1,200 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea). The sample is representative for the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the survey was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.

Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 3.2% for indicators close to 50%, 2.7% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% - for indicators close to 12%, 1.4% - for indicators close to 5%.


In the press release, the results on the rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine are compared with two previous KIIS polls conducted by the method of telephone interviews: with the results of the KIIS Omnibus conducted on September 10-15, 2021 (the last KIIS poll); the results of a survey conducted on May 27-June 1, 2021 on a questionnaire similar to the current survey. When interpreting the dynamics, it is necessary to take into account the differences in the lists of parties.



Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine


Table 1 shows the rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, if mentioned parties participated in the elections. Four parties have relatively the highest support: "Yevropeiska Solidarnist" (13.9% among all respondents and 15.7% among those who decided on the choice), "Sluha Narodu" (13.7% and 15.5%, respectively), and "Batkivshchyna"(12% and 13.6%) and "OPZZh" (11.5% and 13%).  

Next are "Syla i Chest" (7.6% and 8.6%), "Nashi" (5% and 5.7%), LRP (4.9% and 5.6%), "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" (4.9% and 5.6%). The "Svoboda" party has 3.9% and 4.4%, respectively. Other parties have lower support. 

It is worth noting that on formal grounds, the ratings of political forces in the group of leaders differ within the statistical error. 


Table 1

Which party would you vote for if the Verkhovna Rada elections were held next Sunday?

  May 27 – June 1 September 10-15* October 15-18
100% in the column % among all (n=2000, error 2.4%) % among those who decided (n=1729, error 2.6%) % among all (n=2002, error 2.4%) % among those who decided (n=1372, error 2.9%) % among all (n=1200, error 3.2%)  % among those who decided (n=1060, error 3.4%)
"Yevropeiska Solidarnist"party (P. Poroshenko) 13.3 15.4 11.6 17.4 13.9 15.7
"Sluha Narodu" party (O. Korniienko) 15.3 17.7 13.4 20.0 13.7 15.5
"Batkivshchyna" party (Yu. Tymoshenko) 12.1 13.9 7.2 10.8 12.0 13.6
"Opozytsiina Platforma – Za Zhyttia" party (Yu. Boiko) 12.8 14.7 7.8 11.6 11.5 13.0
"Syla i Chest" party (I. Smeshko) 6.9 8.0 5.2 7.8 7.6 8.6
"Nashi" party (Ye. Muraiev) 4.0 4.6 3.7 5.5 5.0 5.7
Oleh Liashko's Radical Party (O. Liashko) 4.4 5.0 3.3 5.0 4.9 5.6
"Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" party (V. Hroisman) 5.1 5.8 3.3 5.0 4.9 5.6
"Svoboda" party (O. Tiahnybok) 2.9 3.4 1.2 1.8 3.9 4.4
Sharii’s party (O. Bondarenko) 3.9 4.5 2.3 3.5 3.1 3.6
"UDAR" party (V. Klychko) --- --- 1.4 2.1 2.1 2.4
"Za Maibutnie" party (I. Palytsia) 1.2 1.4 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.8
"Holos" party (K. Rudyk) 2.6 2.9 0.4 0.6 1.4 1.6
"ProPozytsiia" party (B. Filatov) 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.2
"Ukraine is Our Home" party (B. Kolesnikov) --- --- --- --- 0.9 1.1
ANOTHER PARTY 1.6 1.7 4.9 7.3 0.6 0.7
DS / REFUSAL OF ANSWER / DON'T KNOW 4.9 --- 11.9 --- 4.1 ---
FOR NONE PARTY 7.1 --- 2.1 --- 6.7 ---
WILL NOT VOTE 1.7 --- 19.1 --- 0.9 ---

* In the "Omnibus" the lists included "Samopomich", "Hromadianska Pozytsiia", "Natsionalnyi Korpus" (added in this table to "another". At the same time, there was also the "Opozytsiinyi Blok", where the leaders were Ye. Muraiev and V. Novynskyi In the table, this rating is in the row for the party "Nashi".



Who is the real opposition to the government


Among the four parliamentary parties, the majority of respondents called the main opposition to the government "YeS" (27.2%) and "OPZZh" (24.3%). Another 17.5% called "Batkivshchyna". The "Holos" party was named by 4.4%.


Diagram 1

Who do you consider the main and real opposition to the current government?




Comparison of the current government and the previous one


According to 44.9% of respondents, the current government does not differ from the previous one. At the same time, 29.9% consider the current government worse than the previous one, and 22%, on the contrary, consider the current government better.



Diagram 2

If to talk about your general impression of the current government, how would you assess it compared to the previous government?




Changes in the financial situation of the family over the past 2 years and the main cause of the economic crisis in Ukraine


The majority of respondents - 55.5% - believe that the financial situation of their family has deteriorated over the past 2 years. 10.7% of respondents say about the improvement, and another 32.9% say that nothing has changed.



Diagram 3

How has your family's financial (material) situation changed over the last two years?



If to talk about one of the main causes of the economic crisis, then among the proposed four options, 42.1% of respondents say about the high level of corruption, and 31.2% - about the incompetence of the government. 12.1% say about the coronavirus pandemic, and about the war in Donbas – 8.5%.



Diagram 4

In your opinion, what is the main cause of the economic crisis in Ukraine?



Comment by Anton Hrushetskyi: Analyzing the results obtained, in particular, the ratings of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada, it should be borne in mind that, first, the poll was conducted by the method of telephone interviews. We have repeatedly drawn the attention of the expert community to the fact that the research method affects the results. Respondents interviewed by the method of telephone interviews are more affluent, have a slightly higher level of education, and are slightly more active than respondents interviewed by face-to-face interviews. As a result, it may affect the ratings of individual political forces. However, due to the lack of a census, there is no reliable data on the share of people with higher education, etc., which would allow us to understand which of the methods is more accurate. Some experiments in 2019 showed that survey by the method of personal interviews is more accurate, but now, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors, the situation could change.

Secondly, there has been an uncertain and dynamic situation with the electoral dominance of four political forces: the "YeS", the "Sluha Narodu", the "Batkivshchyna" and the "OPZZh". Moreover, the parties are "tight", and the gap between them is quite small, in this survey - within the statistical error. For example, in this survey, the difference for the top 4 parties between the parties with relatively the highest / lowest support is only 2.4% among all respondents. In fact, there are four political players with fairly close support, whose order according to the results of the survey may vary depending on methodological factors (e.g., poll method) and current contextual conditions (e.g., a newly published high-profile investigation that may have an impact first, but then the situation may return to the previous state or be fixed at the current level).

Third, statistical error must be taken into account for the analysis of dynamics. The ratings of all top parties according to the current poll do not formally differ from the ratings of parties as of the end of May 2021, and the fluctuations that can be seen remain within the statistical error (although there is some downward trend in support for "Sluha Narodu"). , which is obviously related to recent political and economic events).


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