On October 25-29, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. By the method of personal (“face-to-face”) interview using a tablet (CAPI, computer-assisted personal interviews)  2028 respondents living in 103 settlements of all regions of Ukraine (except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) were interviewed by a 3-stage stochastic sample with quota selection at the last stage, which is representative of the population of Ukraine over 18 years of age.

In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the survey was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.

The statistical error of the sample (with a probability of 0.95 and a design effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2.9% - for indicators close to 25%, 2.2% - for indicators close to 12%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 5%.

 

The first wave of the survey was conducted on June 22-29, 2021 according to the same methodology, and the second wave was conducted on July 24-August 1. Where relevant, the dynamics of indicators during June-October 2021 are given.

           

Main results of the survey:

 

• If parliamentary elections were held in late October, 5 parties would run for parliament. The parties "Sluha Narodu" (18.3% among those who decided on the choice), "OPZZh" (17%), "Batkivshchyna" (15.4%), "YeS" (15.1%) would receive the most support (difference of all four parties within the statistical error). The "Syla i Chest" party also has more than 5% (5.6%). D. Razumkov's party (4.5%) and the Radical Party (4.5%) have a little less than the barrier to entry. Compared to July, the support of the top parties has changed within the limits of error;
• 71.1% of Ukrainians believe that things in the country are moving in the wrong direction. 15% say about the right direction (68.7% and 16.1% in July);
• The activities of President V. Zelenskyi are approved by 28.2% of respondents, not approved by 56.9% (in July - 29.3% and 56.1%);
• 43.4% of respondents support early presidential elections, 47.3% - early parliamentary elections.

 

Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine [1]

 

            Table 1 shows the rating of parties if the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place at the end of October, and specified parties participated in them. In addition, current ratings are compared with ratings as of June 22-29, 2021 and July 24-August 1. Situations where the difference in party support between the two polls is statistically significant (i.e. not due to error) are marked * and highlighted in bold.

            If the elections took place at the end of October, to the Verkhovna Rada would pass (5% entry barrier) five political forces: "Sluha Narodu", "OPZZh", "Batkivshchyna", "YeS", "Syla i Chest". The D. Razumkov’s Party and the Radical Party are also close to 5% barrier.

            The largest support was received by four parties at once, whose rating differed within the error: " Sluha Narodu" (11.2% among all respondents and 18.3% among those who decided on the choice), "OPZZh" (respectively, 10.4% and 17%), "Batkivshchyna" (9.4% and 15.4%) and the "YeS" (9.2% and 15.1%). Formally, the difference in support for these political forces is within the statistical error, so they "share" with approximately the same support the first place.

            Next is the party "Syla i Chest" (3.4% and 5.6%). Formally, are gaining less than the entry barrier, but are close to passing D. Razumkov's party (2.8% and 4.5%) and the Radical Party (2.8% and 4.5%). Support for "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" is 2.2% and 3.6% respectively.  

            Compared to July, the rating of the top parties has not changed significantly, i.e. all recorded fluctuations - within the statistical error.

 

Table 1

Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

* For these parties, the rating changed statistically significantly in July 2021 compared to June 2021

 

 

Direction of the movement of affairs in Ukraine

 

 

As before, the vast majority of the population - 71.1% - believe that affairs in the country are going in the wrong direction. The share of those who believe that things are going in the right direction is 15%.

 

 

Diagram 1

In your opinion, things are going in the right or wrong direction in Ukraine now?

 

 

 

 

 

 

           

Approval of the activities of President V. Zelenskyi

 

 

The level of approval of President V. Zelenskyi's activity has not changed compared to July, and so far critical assessments prevail: 56.9% of respondents do not approve of the activities of President V. Zelensky, approve – 28.2%.

 

 

Diagram 2

In general, you approve or do not approve of the activities of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi?

 

 

 

 

 

            35.4% of respondents claim that V. Zelenskyi lived up to their expectations in full or in part, although 4% of them say that their hopes are fully justified. Half of the respondents (47.7%) answered that he did not live up to expectations. Another 14.2% claim that they never had any hopes for V. Zelenskyi.

 

 

Diagram 3

Volodymyr Zelenskyi was elected President in 2019. At this point, Volodymyr Zelenskyi has lived up to your expectations or not?

 

 

 

 

Support for early presidential and parliamentary elections

 

 

Respondents rather support early parliamentary elections - 47.3% support against 37.7% who do not support.

Simultaneously, in the case of early presidential elections, opinions were divided almost equally - 43.4% support them against 45.8% who do not support.

 

 

Diagram 4

You support or do not support the holding of early elections immediately … ?

 

 

 

At the same time, in protests demanding early elections of the President of Ukraine, 23.1% of respondents say they are ready to take part, and 24.1% of respondents say they are ready to take part in early elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

 

Diagram 5

You would personally or would not take part in the protests demanding the announcement of early elections …

 

 

 

Attitude to the removal from power of the party "Sluha Narodu" through mass protests

 

35% of respondents agree with the statement "the "Sluha Narodu" party should be removed from power through mass protests." Do not agree with this – 50.6%.

 

 

Diagram 6

You agree or disagree with the statement: "The "Sluha Narodu" party should be removed from power through mass protests."?

 

 

 

Payment for utilities for the last month

 

 

According to 81.7% of respondents, their household has paid in full for utilities for the last month. 14% of respondents said about partial payment, and 3.5% did not pay anything at all. Among respondents who partially or fully paid for utilities, 35.1% said that the cost of utilities is 16-30% of household income, and according to 49.6% of respondents - more than 30% of income.

When interpreting the results on the share of full payment, it should be borne in mind that this question may be socially sensitive for certain respondents for various reasons: both because of the desire to appear like a decent citizen who pays everything and because of reluctance to talk about debts for fear of possible consequences. Therefore, it is likely that the result obtained in terms of how many households pay for services in full is higher than the real situation.

 

Diagram 7

 

Some households in Ukraine, for various reasons, do not fully pay for the received utilities. Tell me, please, and your household for the last month …

And about what% of the income of your household was the payment of utilities?(%among respondents who partially or fully paid for utilities)

 

 

 

 

Among respondents who talk about partial payment or who did not pay at all for utilities, 82% explain this by the lack of funds for this.

 

Diagram 8

What is the main reason why your household does not pay part or all of the utilities? Choose only the one answer that suits best.

(% among respondents who partially or not at all paid for utilities)

 

 

 

 

 

            According to 13.2% of respondents, their households receive subsidies.

 

 

Diagram 9

Your household now receives or not subsidies to pay for utilities?

 

 

 

 

Comment by Anton Hrushetskyi: Analyzing the results obtained, in particular, the ratings of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada, it should be borne in mind that, first, the poll was conducted by the method of personal (“face-to-face”) interviews. We have repeatedly drawn the attention of the expert community to the fact that the research method affects the results. Respondents interviewed by personal interviews are less affluent, have a slightly lower level of education, and are slightly less active than respondents interviewed by telephone interview. These differences were the subject of a report by KIIS Director General Professor V. Paniotto at the 4th Congress of the Sociological Association of Ukraine on October 28-29. In particular, it was shown that in recent telephone surveys, on average, 7-8% more respondents with higher education and at the same time 16% fewer respondents with low or very low income. As a result, it may affect the ratings of individual political forces. However, due to the lack of a census, there is no reliable data on the share of people with higher education, etc., which would allow us to understand which of the methods is more accurate. Some experiments in 2019 showed that the method of personal interviews was more accurate, but now, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors, the situation could change.

Secondly, the situation with the electoral dominance of four political forces: "Sluha Narodu", "OPZZh", "Batkivshchyna" and "YeS" continues to persist recently. Moreover, the parties are "tight", and the gap between them is quite small, mostly within the statistical error. For example, in this survey, the difference for all top 4 parties is within error. In fact, there are four political players with fairly close support, whose order of the poll may vary depending on methodological factors (e.g., poll method) and current contextual conditions (e.g., a newly published high-profile investigation that may have an impact first, but then the situation may return to the previous state).

Third, statistical error must be taken into account for the analysis of dynamics. The ratings of all top parties according to the results of the current survey do not actually differ from the ratings of parties as of July 2021, and the fluctuations that can be seen - remain within the statistical error.

Annex 1. Formulation and order of questions from the questionnaire

 

Imagine that elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine are taking place now, and representatives of the election commission come to you with a bulletin that includes such parties…. Will you vote or not? IF "YES": And which party would you vote for?

(% among all respondents)

 

(% among the respondents who are going to vote and decided)

 

 In your opinion, affairs are going in the right or wrong direction in Ukraine now?

(% among all respondents)

 

In general, you approve or do not approve of the activities of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi?

(% among all respondents)

 

You support or do not support the holding of early elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine?

(% among all respondents)

 

 You support or do not support the immediate early elections of the President of Ukraine?

(% among all respondents)

 

 

 

Volodymyr Zelenskyi was elected President in 2019. At this point, Volodymyr Zelenskyilived up or did not live up to your expectations?

(% among all respondents)

 

 

You agree or do not agree with the statement: "The "Sluha Narodu" party should be removed from power through mass protests."?

(% among all respondents)

 

Would you personally take part or not take part in the protests demanding the announcement of early … elections of the President of Ukraine?

(% among all respondents)

 

… early elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine?

(% among all respondents)

 

Г1.1 Some households in Ukraine, for various reasons, do not fully pay for the received utilities. Tell me, please, and your household for the last month …

(% among all respondents)

 

 

Г1.2 And about what% of the income of your household was the payment of utilities? 

(% among respondents who paid in full / in part)

 

 

 

What is the main reason why your household does not pay part or all of the utilities? Choose only the one answer that suits best.

(% among all respondents)

 

 

Your household now receives or not subsidies to pay for utilities?

(% among all respondents)