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Socio-political moods of the population of Ukraine: elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine based on the results of a telephone poll conducted on November 26-29, 2021
On November 26-29, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile telephone numbers (with random generation of telephone numbers and subsequent statistical weighing) were interviewed 1203 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea). The sample is representative of the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the poll was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.
The statistical error of the sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 3.2% for indicators close to 50%, 2.7% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% - for indicators close to 12%, 1.4% - for indicators close to 5%.
Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
Table 1 shows the rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, if specified parties participated in the elections. Relatively the highest support have "Yevropeiska Solidarnist" (14.8% among all respondents and 17.1% among those who decided on the choice), "Sluha Narodu" (respectively, 13% and 15%), "Batkivshchyna" (11.5% and 13.3%).
Next are "Rozumna Polityka" (8.6% and 9.9%), "OPZZh" (8% and 9.2%), "Syla i Chest" (5.8% and 6.7%), "Hroisman's Ukrainian strategy" (5% and 5.7%), LRP (4.7% and 5.4%),"Nashi" (4.6% and 5.3%),"UDAR"(3.9% and 4.5%). Other parties have lower support.
It should be noted that the ratings of such political forces as the "YeS" and the "Sluha Narodu" differ on a formal basis within the statistical error. The "YeS" and "Batkivshchyna" ratings differ by more than a statistical error, and the "Sluha Narodu" and "Batkivshchyna" ratings - within the statistical error.
Which party would you vote for if the parliamentary elections were held next Sunday?
Who is the real opposition to the government
Among the four parliamentary parties, most respondents called the "YeS" (28.6%) and "OPZZh" the main opposition to the government (23.2%). Another 17.8% named "Batkivshchyna". The "Voice" party was named by 4.4%.
Who do you consider the main and real opposition to the current government?
Comment by Anton Hrushetskyi: Analyzing the results obtained, in particular, the ratings of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada, it should be borne in mind that, first, the poll was conducted by the method of telephone interviews. We have repeatedly drawn the attention of the expert community to the fact that the research method affects the results. Respondents interviewed by telephone interviews are more affluent, have a slightly higher level of education and are slightly more active than respondents interviewed by personal interviews. As a result, it may affect the rating of individual political forces. However, due to the lack of a census, there is no reliable data on the share of people with higher education, etc., which would allow us to understand which of the methods is more accurate. Some experiments in 2019 showed that face-to-face interviews were more accurate, but now, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors, the situation could change.
Secondly, there has been an uncertain and dynamic situation with the electoral dominance of four political forces in recent times: the "YeS", the "Sluha Narodu", the "Batkivshchyna" and the "OPZZh". In this poll, due to the addition of D. Razumkov's party "Rozumna Polityka", three leaders stand out ("YeS", "Sluha Narodu", "Batkivshchyna"). Moreover, the parties are "tight", and the gap between them is quite small, in this survey - within the statistical error between the two leading parties. In fact, there are a few political players with fairly close support, whose order according to the results of the survey may vary depending on methodological factors (e.g., method of the survey) and current contextual conditions (e.g., a just-launched high-profile investigation that may initially have an impact but then may return to the previous state or be fixed at the current level).
Third, statistical error must be taken into account to analyze the dynamics. The ratings of the parties according to the results of the current survey mostly fluctuate within the error. Compared to the last survey in October, you can see a marked decline in support for "OPZZh", but, apparently, this is a consequence of the appearance in the list of D. Razumkov's party "Rozumna Polityka".