ESC or click to close
Press releases and reports
Dynamics of the rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and candidates in the elections of the President of Ukraine: results of a telephone poll conducted on December 3-11, 2021
During December 3-11, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion poll "Omnibus". By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighing) were interviewed 2,000 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea) . The sample is representative of the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the poll was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.
Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1% - for indicators close to 5%.
Until the parties and candidates were registered, any list of candidates has a right to exist. Meanwhile, the rating of a candidate depends on how many are on the list of candidates from the same electoral field - the more of them, the lower the rating of each candidate. The same applies to parties. In addition, who is considered the party leader plays a significant role. Therefore, now, before the registration of the lists of candidates / parties, all the obtained data on the ratings are conditional and depend on the list offered to the respondents. At the same time, the more different the lists, the less reasonable it is to compare the results obtained with different lists. In addition, the results of the survey are influenced by a number of factors, such as the survey method (telephone survey or face-to-face survey, and "inside" these methods concrete implementation also has an impact - for example, completely random sampling or quota sampling), the order and context of the questions in the questionnaire (including the influence of which question is asked earlier - about the parliamentary or presidential elections), the wording of the question about voting in elections, etc.
The survey method has a particularly significant impact. Respondents interviewed by the method of telephone interviews are more affluent, have a slightly higher level of education, and are slightly more active than respondents interviewed by the method of personal interviews. As a result, it may affect the rating of individual political forces. However, due to the lack of a census, there is no reliable data on the share of people with higher education, etc., which would allow to understand which of the methods is more accurate. Some experiments in 2019 showed that surveys by the method of personal interviews were more accurate, but now, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors, the situation could change.
As a result, often surveys conducted by different companies, as well as surveys conducted by the same company, cannot be correctly compared with each other due to these factors. That is, such surveys give a reliable slice of the current situation, but more problematic is the analysis of the dynamics.
During 2021, in order to correctly assess the dynamics, we used the same list of candidates and parties in our "Omnibus" survey. However, after September, given the potentially significant changes in the political landscape (primarily related to the activities of D. Razumkov), in the December 2021 survey, the lists were updated to more accurately reflect the current situation. At the same time, as the analysis of dynamics is important for understanding public moods, in this release we compare the current results with the results as of the beginning of June 2021 and December 2020. For the correctness of the comparison, such conditions are provided as a similar method of survey (telephone interviews), a similar order of questions in the questionnaire (first about the parliamentary elections, then - about the presidential election), similar wording of the questions themselves. At the same time, the lists are different, so when analyzing the dynamics, it should be borne in mind that it may be at least partly the result of different lists.
Table 1 shows the rating of parties if the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in the first half of December and specified parties participated in them. In addition, a comparison of the current rating of parties with the rating as of December 2020 and as of early June 2021. The current ratings are marked with an asterisk * and bold, which are statistically significantly (i.e. above the error) different from what the party had in December 2020. That is, these are cases when the results of the survey on December 3-11 show a significant change over the last year.
As of December 3-11 the "Yevropeiska Solidarnist" party has the most support, with 13.7% among all respondents and 19.8% among those who are going to vote and decided on their choice, and the "Sluha Narodu", which is supported by 12.7% among all respondents and 18.4% among those who decided on their choice. The difference in support for these parties is within the statistical error, i.e. formally, according to the results of the survey, these parties with approximately the same support "share" the first or second place.
Next are the parties "Batkivshchyna" (respectively, 6.2% among all respondents and 9.1% among those who decided on the choice) and the "Opozytsiina Platforma – Za Zhyttia!" (6.2% and 9%). The 5% entry barrier also formally overcome "Syla i Chest" (4.8% and 7%), the Radical Party (3.6% and 5.2%) and "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" (3.5% and 5.1%). Formally, have a little less the entry barrier, but are close to it "Rozuzmna Polityka" (3.3% and 4.8%), "Nashi" (3.1% and 4.4%) and "Sharii’s Party" (2.8% and 4%). Other parties have lower support.
Compared to December 2020, the rating of such top parties as "Yevropeiska Solidarnist", "Sluha Narodu", "Batkivshchyna", "Syla i Chest", "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" has not changed statistically significantly. At the same time, the rating of the "OPZZh" party shows the most significant dynamics, which support among those who decided fell from 17.4% to 9%. Also during the year, support decreased for the parties "Holos" (from 3.5% to 1.7%) and "Za Maibutnie" (from 3.2% to 1.3%). Formally, support for the Radical Party alone increased from 3.2% to 5.2%. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that in December 2020 there were no "Nashi" and "Rozumna Polityka" parties on the lists, so it is impossible for them to assess the dynamics of the last year.
Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
Table 2 shows the rating of candidates in the presidential election in the first round, if specified candidates participated in the election, and the rating is compared with the results of December 2020 and June 2021.
V. Zelenskyi continues to have the greatest support, with 20.2% among all respondents and 27.1% among those who decided on the choice. In second place – P. Poroshenko with indicators 14.7% among all respondents and 19.7% among those who decided on the choice. Yuliia Tymoshenko is also in the top three (8.4% and 11.3%, respectively).
Next are I. Smeshko (5.8% and 7.7%), Yu. Boiko (4.9% and 6.6%), Ye. Muraiev (4.8% and 6.5%), D. Razumkov (4.7% and 6.3%), V. Hroisman (3.8% and 5.1%), O. Liashko (3.6% and 4.8%). Other candidates have lower support.
Compared to December 2020, the rating of such top candidates as V. Zelenskyi, P. Poroshenko, Yuliia Tymoshenko, and I. Smeshko has not changed statistically significantly. At the same time, the most significant dynamics can be traced in the case of Yu. Boiko - his rating among those who decided fell from 13.7% in December 2020 to 6.6% in December 2021. O. Liashko has a positive dynamics - from 2.9% to 4.8%. At the same time, it should be taken into account that since Ye. Muraiev, D. Razumkov and V. Hroisman were not on the lists in December 2020, we cannot estimate the dynamics of their rating for the year.
Rating of candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine
Comment by Anton HrushetskyI, Deputy Director of KIIS:
The obtained results allow to record tendencies in public moods, but at the same time do not provide information on the specific reasons for the stabilization / dynamics of ratings, this requires separate researches. It is advisable to pay attention to several important aspects. First, formally, support for the government has not changed over the past year. However, if to analyze in more detail the dynamics during 2020 from our surveys and surveys of other companies, we can talk about certain improvement in the indicators of support for the government after February and summer against the background (at least media) of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, but in the future the situation has not improved at least significantly, and in some cases there are signs of declining support. Secondly, the most noticeable is the decline in support for the "OPZZh" party. However, keep in mind that the exact reasons are difficult to determine. This can be either an "outflow" of votes due to the party's active accusation of pro-Russian activities, or simply a "flow" of votes in favor of more "new" political forces, such as parties "Nashi" or "Rozumna Polityka". But some decline in support may also be due to a decrease in the desire of party supporters to participate in polls or to name their real political preferences during interviews. Third, we note once again that the difference between the two leaders is within the statistical error. In recent telephone polls, the "YeS" party formally has relatively more votes than other political forces, but as we have noted, this may be partly an effect of the method, and in surveys by the method of personal interviews a small difference between the parties may persist, albeit with a different formal order. However, it is also possible that against the background of Russia's escalation of the situation among the population there is a greater demand for leaders who are associated with patriotism and defense of the country.
Annex 1. Formulation and order of questions from the questionnaire
Please imagine that elections to the Verkhovna Rada are currently taking place, in which such parties are participating: [READ THE LIST. PARTIES TO BE READ OUT IN RANDOM. BE SURE TO READ LEADERS]. Would you take part in the elections or not? IF "YES": Which party would you vote for? ONE ANSWER
(% among all respondents)
(% among the respondents who are going to vote and decided)
And now imagine, that the presidential elections are also taking place in which participate: [READ CANDIDATES RANDOMLY]. Would you take part in the election or not? IF "YES": Which candidate would you vote for? ONE ANSWER
(% among all respondents)
(% among the respondents who are going to vote and decided)