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Will Ukrainians resist Russian intervention: results of a telephone survey conducted on December 3-11, 2021
During December 3-11, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion poll "Omnibus". By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile telephone numbers (with random generation of telephone numbers and subsequent statistical weighing) were interviwed 2,000 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea). The sample is representative of the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the survey was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.
Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1% - for indicators close to 5%.
In December 2021, KIIS as part of the "Omnibus" asked respondents a question: "In the event of an armed intervention by Russia in your city or village, would you take any action and if "yes", which ones?". In general, the results of the survey show that Ukrainians will resist Russian interventionists.
In general, every third respondent - 33.3% - is ready to put up armed resistance. 21.7% are ready to resist by participating in civil resistance actions. In general, 50.2% of Ukrainians are ready to resist in one way or another. Among other options - 14.8% would go to a safer region, 9.3% would go abroad, 18.6% would do nothing. Another 12.1% did not decide on the answer, and 1.1% refused to answer the question.
In the regional dimension, the willingness to resist varies from 60.5% in the West to 37.2% in the East. Willingness to offer armed resistance - from 39.7% in the West to 25.6% in the East.
What actions are Ukrainians ready to take in the event of Russian armed intervention in their settlement
In September 2015, KIIS conducted a public opinion poll of Ukrainians on methods of resistance to invaders / occupiers commissioned by the "Center for Strategic Studies" and the "Agency for Nonviolent Decisions" (the results can be found at the link – http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=546). In particular, the respondents were asked "What actions would you prefer in the context of foreign armed intervention in your city or village?". According to the survey, 23.8% of respondents said they would put up armed resistance, 28.6% - resist by participating in civil resistance - such as demonstrations, protests, marches, boycotts, strikes, civil disobedience. In general, 52.4% of respondents would resist one way or another.
In Table 2, the willingness to resist Russian interventionists is shown in terms of party and presidential electorates.
What actions are Ukrainians ready to take in the event of Russian armed intervention in their settlement: party and presidential electorate
In Table 3, the willingness to resist Russian interventionists is shown in terms of gender, age and type of settlement. Men are more willing to resist: 68% of them are ready to resist, including 58% are ready for armed resistance, and 17% - to participate in civil resistance. Among women, 36% are ready to resist, of which 13% are ready to resist with arms, 25.5% - by participating in civil resistance actions. According to age, respondents aged 40-59 are most willing to resist.
What actions are Ukrainians ready to take in the event of Russian armed intervention in their locality: gender, age, type of settlement
Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire
In the event of an armed intervention by Russia in your city or village, would you take any actions and if "yes", what exactly? RESPONDENT MAY CHOOSE SEVERAL ANSWERS
(% among all respondents)