During December 9-17, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. By the method of personal (“face-to-face”) interview using a tablet (CAPI, computer-assisted personal interviews) were interviewed 2025 respondents living in 109 settlements of all regions of Ukraine (except the AR of Crimea) by a 3-level stochastic sample with quota selection at the last stage, which is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and over.

In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the survey was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.

The statistical error of the sample (with a probability of 0.95 and a design effect of 1.5) does not exceed: 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2.9% - for indicators close to 25%, 2.2% - for indicators close to 12%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 5%.

 

The first wave of the survey was conducted during June 22-29, 2021 according to the same methodology, the second wave - during July 24-August 1, and the third wave - during October 25-29. Where relevant, the dynamics of indicators during June-December 2021 are given.

           

Main results of the survey:

 

• If the first round of the election of the President of Ukraine took place in mid-December, V. Zelenskyi would get the most votes - 27.6% among those who decided on the choice. In second place - P. Poroshenko (16%). Yu. Boiko (9.4%) and Yu. Tymoshenko share the third place with almost equal support (9%);
• In the second round of the presidential election, V. Zelenskyi defeats P. Poroshenko, Yu. Boiko and D. Razumkov. In a pair of V. Zelenskyi-Yu. Tymoshenko's ratio is 51.6% to 48.4%, but the difference is within the statistical error;
• If parliamentary elections were held in mid-December, 7 parties would run for parliament. The parties "Sluha Narodu" (17.6% among those who decided on the choice), "YeS" (16.5%), "Batkivshchyna" (13.7%), "OPZZh" (13.6%) would receive the greatest support (difference of all four parties within the statistical error). "Rozumna Polityka" (6.5%) and "Syla i Chest" (5.5%) also have more than 5%. "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" (4.6%) and "Nashi" (4.4%) have slightly less than the entry barrier. Compared to October, the support of the top parties has changed within the margin of error;
• 65.3% of Ukrainians believe that affairs in the country are moving in the wrong direction. 18.3% say about the right direction (in October it was 71.1% and 15%);
• 26.4% of respondents approve of President Zelenskyi's activity, 58.6% do not approve (28.2% and 56.9% in October);
• 44.3% of respondents support early presidential elections, 46.5% - early parliamentary elections;
• Among the various options for accelerating Ukraine's development, most respondents chose the return of Ukraine's national wealth (48.5%) and the bringing to power of people with experience in public administration (40.8%);
• The majority of respondents (66.3%) agree with the interpretation of the current situation in Ukraine as a crisis with degradation and chaos, including 50.9% believe that the prime minister needs to be changed to get out of this situation. Among respondents who consider the situation to be in crisis and in need of a replacement of the prime minister, 20.7% believe that Yu. Tymoshenko is the best head of government to get Ukraine out of the crisis. Next are V. Hroisman (16.4%) and M. Azarov (14.8%);
• The main sources of information for the population are national television (57.7% include in the top-3 most important sources) and websites (55.4%). 39.8% of respondents talk about social networks.

 

Rating and anti-rating of candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine [1]

 

In the election of the President of Ukraine in the first round, if it took place in mid-December, V. Zelenskyi would receive the most support, with 17% among all respondents and 27.6% among those who decided on the choice. In second place - P. Poroshenko (respectively, 9.9% and 16%). The third place is "shared" with almost equal support (difference within the error) between Yu. Boiko (5.8% and 9.4%) and Yu. Tymoshenko (5.5% and 9%). Other candidates have lower support.

 

Table 1

Rating of candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine (first round)

In addition to the first round, respondents were simulated 5 situations of a possible second round of presidential elections: V. Zelenskyi against P. Poroshenko, Yu. Tymoshenko, Yu. Boiko and D. Razumkov, as well as the couple P. Poroshenko-Yu. Tymoshenko. V. Zelenskyi wins in the second round P. Poroshenko (55.7% against 44.3% among those who decided on the choice), Yu. Boiko (60.2% against 39.8%) and D. Razumkov (53.2% against 46.8%). At the same time in the pair V. Zelenskyi-Yu. Tymoshenko's ratio is 51.6% to 48.4%, but the difference is within the margin of error, i.e. formally we can not say which of the candidates has the highest support. In the pair of P. Poroshenko-Yu. Tymoshenko 45.2% would support P. Poroshenko, 54.8% - Yu. Tymoshenko.

Table 2

Rating of candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine (second round)

V. Zelenskyi (30.7% among all respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances) and P. Poroshenko (29%) have the highest anti-rating among candidates.

 

Diagram 1

Anti-rating of candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine (for whom would not vote under any circumstances)

 

 

 

Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

 

Table 3 shows the rating of parties if the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place at the end of October, and specified parties participated in them. In addition, current ratings are compared with ratings as of June 22-29, 2021, July 24-August 1, and October 25-29. Situations where the difference in party support between the two polls is statistically significant (i.e. not due to error) are marked * and highlighted in bold.

If the elections took place in mid-December, seven political forces would pass to the Verkhovna Rada (overcome the 5% barrier): "Sluha Narodu", "OPZZh", "Batkivshchyna", "YeS", "Rozumna Polityka" and "Syla i Chest". Also close to 5% entry barrier are parties "Hroisman’s Ukrainian Strategy" and "Nashi".

The biggest support was received by four parties rating of which differs within the error: "Sluha Narodu" (11.2% among all respondents and 17.6% among those who decided on the choice), "YeS" (respectively, 10.5% and 16.5%), "Batkivshchyna" (8.7% and 13.7%), "OPZZh" (8.7% and 13.6%). Formally, the difference in support for these political forces is within the statistical error, so they "share" with about the same support first place.

Next are the parties "Rozumna Polityka" (4.1% and 6.5%) and "Syla i Chest" (3.5% and 5.5%). Formally, they are gaining less than entry barrier, but the parties "Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" (2.9% and 4.6%) and "Nashi" (2.8% and 4.4) are close to passing.

Compared to October, the rating of the top-parties has not changed significantly, ie all the recorded fluctuations are within the statistical error, although there is a tendency to reduce in support for "OPZZh". At the same time, support for the "Rozumna Polityka"and "Nashi" parties increased statistically significantly.

 

Table 3

Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

 

Direction of the movement of affairs in Ukraine

 

 

As before, the vast majority of the population - 65.3% - believe that affairs in the country are going in the wrong direction. The share of those who believe that affairs are going in the right direction is 18.3%. Compared to October, the indicators improved slightly.

 

 

Diagram 2

In your opinion, affairs are going in the right or wrong direction in Ukraine now?

 

 

 

           

Approval of the activities of President V. Zelenskyi

 

 

The level of approval of President Zelenskyi's activities has not changed compared to October, and so far critical assessments prevail: 58.6% of respondents do not approve of the activities of President V. Zelenskyi, approve – 26.4%.

 

 

Diagram 3

In general, you approve or do not approve of the activities of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi?

 

 

 

34.5% of respondents say that V. Zelenskyi justified their hopes in full or in part, although 4% of them say that their hopes are fully justified. Half of the respondents (48%) said that he did not justify hopes. Another 15.3% claim that they never had any hopes for V. Zelenskyi.

 

 

Diagram 4

Volodymyr Zelenskyi was elected President in 2019. At the moment, Volodymyr Zelensky has justified or did not justify your hopes?

 

 

Support for holding of early presidential and parliamentary elections

 

 

Respondents rather support holding of early parliamentary elections - 46.5% support against 40.4%, who do not support.

Simultaneously, in the case of early presidential elections, opinions were divided almost equally - 44.3% support them against 46.2%, who do not support.

 

 

Diagram 5

You support or do not support the immediate holding of early elections … ?

 

 

Proposals for accelerating the development of Ukraine

 

Among the various options for accelerating Ukraine's development, most respondents chose to return Ukraine's national wealth (48.5%) and bring to power people with experience in public administration (40.8%). This is followed by options such as getting rid of foreign governance (30.3%), restoring economic relations with Russia (25%) and continuing the course to renew power with new people (24.8%).

 

Diagram 6

Different political forces offer different solutions to the problems facing Ukraine. Below is a list of some such suggestions. What do you think should be done to accelerate the development of Ukraine? Choose everything that fits.

 

 

Crisis in Ukraine

 

The majority of respondents (66.3%) agree with the interpretation of the current situation in Ukraine as a crisis with degradation and chaos, including 50.9% believe that the prime minister needs to be changed to get out of this situation.

 

Diagram 7

Some politicians argue that Ukraine is in a time of crisis, accompanied by degradation and chaos, and that a prime minister should be appointed to bring the country out of this state. Other politicians disagree. And with which of the points of view listed on the card on this issue do you agree to a greater extent?

 

Among respondents who consider the situation to be in crisis and in need of a change of prime minister, 20.7% believe that Yu. Tymoshenko will be the best of the former prime ministers. Next are V. Hroisman (16.4%) and M. Azarov (14.8%).

 

Diagram 8

And who of the following former prime ministers, in your opinion, would be the best to cope with the withdrawal of Ukraine from the crisis?

% among respondents who consider the state of Ukraine in crisis, which requires a change of prime minister

 

 

 

Opinions of respondents about whose interests are currently defended by the current government

 

59% of respondents believe that the current government defends its own interests in the first place. 14.5% believe that it defends state / national interests, and another 13.1% believe that it defends the interests of other states.

 

 

Diagram 9

In your opinion, the current government of Ukraine first of all defends...

 

Impact of Ukrainian leadership policy on fertility and mortality rates

 

 

According to 54% of respondents, management policy leads to an increase in mortality among the population (4% say about a decrease). Also 51.6% say that the policy leads to a decrease in the fertility rate (the increase in the birth rate is 5.8%).

 

 

Diagram 10

In your opinion, the current policy of the state leadership leads to… / A as for the fertility rate - do you think that the current policy of the state leadership leads to …

 

 

 

Implementation of the policy of foreign colonization towards Ukraine

 

 

45.1% of respondents agree with the statement that the foreign policy of colonization is carried out towards Ukraine, do not agree with this - 24.5%.

 

 

Diagram 11

Do you agree or do not agree with the following statement: "Colonization policy is currently being pursued against Ukraine"?

 

 

Main sources of information for the population

 

The main sources of information for the population are national television (57.7% include in the top-3 of most important sources) and websites (55.4%). 39.8% of respondents talk about social networks.

 

            Diagram 12

From what sources do you usually get information? Choose up to 3 answers.

 

 

 

Comment by Anton Hrushetskyi: Analyzing the results obtained, in particular, the ratings of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada, it should be borne in mind that, first, the survey was conducted by the method of personal (“face-to-face”) interviews. We have repeatedly drawn the attention of the expert community to the fact that the research method affects the results. Respondents interviewed by the method of personal interviews are less affluent, have a slightly lower level of education and are slightly less active than respondents interviewed by the method of telephone interviews. These differences were the subject of a report by KIIS Director General Professor V. Paniotto at the 4th Congress of the Sociological Association of Ukraine on October 28-29. In particular, it has been shown that in recent telephone surveys there are on average 7-8% more respondents with higher education and at the same time 16% fewer respondents with low or very low incomes. As a result, it may affect the rating of individual political forces. However, due to the lack of a census, there is no reliable data on the share of people with higher education, etc., which would allow us to understand which of the methods is more accurate. Some experiments in 2019 showed that surveys by the method of personal interviews were more accurate, but now, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors, the situation could change.

Secondly, the situation with the electoral dominance of four political forces: "Sluha Narodu", "OPZZh", "Batkivshchyna" and "YeS" has continued in recent times. Moreover, the parties are "tight", and the gap between them is quite small, mostly within the statistical error. For example, in this survey, the difference for all top 4 parties is within error. In fact, there are four political players with fairly close support, whose order of opinion according to survey data may vary depending on methodological factors (e.g., method of the survey) and current contextual conditions (e.g., a just-launched high-profile investigation that may initially have an impact but then may return to previous state).

Third, statistical error must be taken into account to analyze the dynamics. The ratings of all top parties according to the results of the current survey do not actually differ from the ratings of parties as of October 2021, and the fluctuations that can be seen - remain within the statistical error.

Annex 1. Formulation and order of questions from the questionnaire

 

Imagine that the election of the President of Ukraine is taking place and representatives of the election commission come to you with a bulletin, which includes such candidates…. Would you vote or not? IF "YES": And which candidate would you vote for?

(% among all respondents)

 

(% among the respondents who are going to vote and decided)

 

 And for which candidate/ candidates would you not vote under any circumstances? Select all such candidates.

(% among all respondents)

 

 

And now imagine that elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine are taking place now, and representatives of the election commission came to you with a bulletin, which includes such parties…. Would you vote or not? IF "YES": And which party would you vote for?

(% among all respondents)

 

(% among the respondents who are going to vote and decided)

 

It is still unknown exactly which candidates will run in the second round of the presidential election in Ukraine if they take place in the near future. I will read you couples, and you tell me which of these candidates you would vote for if they went to the second round.

(% among all respondents)

Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Petro Poroshenko

 

Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Yuliia Tymoshenko

 

Yurii Boiko andVolodymyr Zelenskyi

 

Volodymyr Zelenskyiand Dmytro Razumkov

 

Petro Poroshenko and Yuliia Tymoshenko

 

In your opinion, affairs are going in the right or wrong direction in Ukraine now?

(% among all respondents)

 

В2. In general, you approve or do not approve of the activities of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi?

(% among all respondents)

 

You support or do not support the immediate holding of early elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine?

(% among all respondents)

 

You support or do not support the immediate holding of early elections of the President of Ukraine?

(% among all respondents)

 

 

 

Volodymyr Zelenskyi was elected President in 2019. At the moment, Volodymyr Zelenskyihas justified or has not justified your hopes?

(% among all respondents)

 

 

 

Different political forces offer different solutions to the problems facing Ukraine. Below is a list of some such suggestions. What do you think should be done to accelerate the development of Ukraine? Choose everything that fits?

(% among all respondents)

 

 

 

 

 

Some politicians argue that Ukraine is in a time of crisis, accompanied by degradation and chaos, and that a prime minister should be appointed to bring the country out of this state. Other politicians do not agree. And with which of the points of view listed on the card on this issue do you agree to a greater extent?

(% among all respondents)

 

And who of the following former prime ministers, in your opinion, would be the best to cope with the withdrawal of Ukraine from the crisis?

(% among respondents who believe that Ukraine is in a crisis period that needs a replacement of  Minister)

 

In your opinion, the current government of Ukraine first of all defends...

(% among all respondents)

 

 

 

In your opinion, the current policy of the state leadership leads to …

(% among all respondents)

 

 

 

As for the fertility, you think that the current policy of the state leadership leads to …

(% among all respondents)

 

 

 

 

Do you agree or do not agree with the following statement: "Colonization policy is currently being pursued against Ukraine"?

(% among all respondents)

 

 

From what sources do you usually get information? Choose up to 3 answers.

(% among all respondents)