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READYNESS OF UKRAINIANS TO PARTICIPATE IN SOCIAL PROTEST ACTIONS, DECEMBER 2021

The press release was prepared by Olha Cheromukhina

On December 3-11, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion poll "Omnibus". By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile telephone numbers (with random generation of telephone numbers and subsequent statistical weighing) were interviewed 2,000 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea). The sample is representative of the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the poll was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.

Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1% - for indicators close to 5%.

 

Introductory comment.  KIIS uses a list of forms of protest borrowed from some international projects, including participation in election campaigns. The question of whether participation in an election campaign is a form of protest or, conversely, a civic duty and a behavior loyal to the government is debatable. Some voters go to the polls to protest, some to support the government. We left the participation in elections on a list of forms of protest for opportunity of comparison with other Ukrainian and international researches. 

 

According to surveys conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the proportion of those who say they are not ready to take part in any mass protests during 2020-2021 has changed from 57% in 2020 to 64% in 2021.

In December 2021, 32.4% of adults in Ukraine are ready to take part in protests, in particular, 15.7% of Ukrainians see their participation in the election campaign as a form of protest, 11.3% - in authorized rallies and demonstrations, 10.3% - collecting signatures under collective appeals. Compared to the previous year, the level of readiness to participate in social protests decreased by 5.6%.

 

Graph 1. Readiness of Ukrainians for protests, December 2021, % (arranged in descending order)

 

 

By regions:

  • The lowest level of readiness to participate in protests is observed in the Eastern region (69.8% are not ready to protest), the highest - in the Central (58% are not ready to protest). In the Western and Southern regions the situation is practically the same (65.4% and 66.7% are not ready for protests, respectively)
  • Regarding regional differences in certain types of protests, the least willing to participate in the election campaign in the Eastern and Western regions (12.7% and 15.1% respectively), the largest in the Central region (17%) and in the South - 16.4%. Elsewhere, there are no significant differences in regional distribution

By gender: 

  • More than half of women surveyed are not ready to take part in protests (66.8%), among men 59.9%.
  • Men are slightly more willing to take part in authorized rallies and demonstrations (13.9% against 9%)

By type of settlement (city-village): 

  • The level of readiness for protests in the urban population is higher than in the rural population (34.5% against 27,9%)
  • Among the different types of protests, the biggest difference is in the readiness to participate in the election campaign (urban population - 16.8%, rural population - 13.8%) and participation in authorized rallies and demonstrations (urban population - 12.6%, rural population) - 8.6%), no other significant differences were found.

 

Graph 2 shows the dynamics of the readiness of Ukrainians to protest for 12 years (2009-2021).  The level of readiness for the protests was calculated as follows - 100% minus the number of those who said "not ready to participate in the protests", minus those who said "difficult to say and refusal to answer". 

Graph 2. Dynamics of readiness of Ukrainians for protests for 12 years, 2009-2021

 

 

Comment of the Director General of KIIS, Professor V. Paniotto.

It turned out that my comment last year is completely adequate and now. Watch this active link on our YouTube channel: Commentary by Volodymyr Paniotto

 

Annex 1. Formulation of the question in the questionnaire

8. What social protests would you personally be willing to take part in? Please indicate all relevant answers. GIVE THE CARD 8. NOTE EVERYTHING NAMED BY RESPONDENT 

Participation in the election campaign 1
Collection of signatures under collective appeals (requirements, appeals) 2
Authorized rallies and demonstrations 3
Threat by strike 4
Boycott (refusal to comply with decisions of the administration, authorities) 5
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 6
Participation in strikes 7
Protest hunger strike 8
Picketing of state institutions 9
Capture of buildings 10
Creation of armed groups independent of power structures 11
Other (WRITE DOWN) ______________ 12
I am not ready to take part in any mass protests 13
DIFFICULT TO SAY 14
REFUSAL TO ANSWER 15

 

Annex 2. Tables

Table 1. “What social protests would you personally be ready to take part in? Distribution by gender 

  man woman
I am not ready to take part in any mass protests 59,9 66,8
Participation in the election campaign 16,4 15,2
Authorized rallies and demonstrations 13,9 9
Collection of signatures under collective appeals (requirements, appeals) 10,6 10,1
Participation in strikes 3,9 1,2
Picketing of state institutions 3,9 0,8
Boycott (refusal to comply with decisions of the administration, authorities) 3,8 1,4
Threat by strike 3,2 1
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 3 1,5
Creation of armed groups independent of power structures 2,2 0,5
Protest hunger strike 1,9 1,2
Capture of buildings 1,7 0,5
Other (WRITE DOWN) 2,3 2,4
DIFFICULT TO SAY 5,1 2,3
REFUSAL TO ANSWER 0,6 0,3

 

 

 

Table 2. “What social protests would you personally be ready to take part in? Distribution by regions 

 

  Western Central Southern Eastern
I am not ready to take part in any mass protests 65,4 58 66,7 69,8
Participation in the election campaign 15,1 17 16,4 12,7
Collection of signatures under collective appeals (requirements, appeals) 11 10,2 9,5 11,2
Authorized rallies and demonstrations 11 12,4 10,3 10,4
Picketing of state institutions 3,3 2,3 1,8 0,7
Boycott (refusal to comply with decisions of the administration, authorities) 2,9 3,2 1,6 0,7
Participation in strikes 2,9 2,9 1,4 1,9
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 2,6 2,4 1,4 1,5
Threat by strike 2 3,2 1 0,7
Creation of armed groups independent of power structures 1,7 1,7 0,8 0
Protest hunger strike 1,1 0,9 1,2 4,5
Capture of buildings 0,7 1,9 0,6 0,4
Other (WRITE DOWN) 1,7 2,9 2,6 1,5
DIFFICULT TO SAY 4,4 4 2,6 2,2
REFUSAL TO ANSWER 0 1 0,2 0

 

Level of readiness to participate in protests (by regions):
Western Central Southern Eastern
30,2 37 30,5 28

 

 

 

 

 

Table3. “What social protests would you personally be ready to take part in? Distribution byplace of residence

 

  Urban population Rural population
I am not ready to take part in any mass protests 62,7 65,7
Participation in the election campaign 16,8 13,8
Authorized rallies and demonstrations 12,6 8,6
Collection of signatures under collective appeals (requirements, appeals) 10,8 9,5
Participation in strikes 2,6 2,1
Picketing of state institutions 2,6 1,2
Boycott (refusal to comply with decisions of the administration, authorities) 2,5 2,1
Threat by strike 2,2 2,4
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 2 1,8
Creation of armed groups independent of power structures 1,3 1,2
Protest hunger strike 1,2 2,1
Capture of buildings 0,9 1,2
Other (WRITE DOWN) 2,6 1,8
DIFFICULT TO SAY 2,6 5,5
REFUSAL TO ANSWER 0,2 0,9

 

 

Level of readiness for protests (by type of settlement):
Urban population Rural population
34,5 27,9

 

 

Dynamics of readiness to participate in social protests (2009-2021), %:

 

  Feb.2006 Apr.09 Sep.12 Nov.13 Feb.14 Dec.14 Dec.16 Dec.17 Dec.18 Dec.19 Dec.20 Dec.21
I am not ready to take part in any mass protests 51 52,4 59,1 56,4 50,3 48,8 45,6 53,2 49,2 48,8 57,1 63,7
Participation in the election campaign 21,6 23,7 18,5 26,1 30,8 29 35,4 28,9 32 34,1 15,8 15,7
Authorized rallies and demonstrations 16,6 15,8 13,8 11,9 17,3 15,8 11,9 9,6 11,1 10,7 10,1 11,3
Collection of signatures under collective appeals (requirements, appeals) 17,4 11,3 11,7 13,2 18,5 16,5 15,5 16,5 16,2 15,6 12,7 10,3
DIFFICULT TO SAY 8 4,9 6,9 6,4 7,5 7,9 4,4 5,3 5,9 3,5 3,2 3,5
Boycott (refusal to comply with decisions of the administration, authorities) 3,8 2,4 2,9 2,9 3,6 2,6 2,9 2,8 4 2,9 3,2 2,4
Participation in strikes 7,7 7,6 4,4 4,2 5 5,8 3,4 2,9 3,3 3,6 3 2,4
Other (WRITE DOWN) 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,3 1,1 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,1 0,3 2,8 2,3
Picketing of state institutions 4,8 4 2,8 1,6 4,5 4 2,3 2 2,5 1,8 2,9 2,2
Unauthorized rallies and demonstrations 3,6 3,6 3,1 3,2 4,6 3 2,4 2,3 3,8 2,1 2,6 2,1
Threat by strike 5 3,2 3 2,2 3,3 2,3 2,8 1,7 3,7 2,9 2 2
Protest hunger strike 0,9 1,1 1,1 0,5 0,5 0,9 1,2 0,7 0,9 0,9 1,7 1,5
Creation of armed groups independent of power structures 1,8 1,5 0,6 0,4 1 1,2 0,7 0,6 0,8 1 1,9 1,2
Capture of buildings 1,6 1,3 1,2 0,5 1,1 0,7 0,9 0,7 0,7 0,7 1,1 1
REFUSAL TO ANSWER 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,5 1,2 0,8 0 1,3 0,4


 


13.1.2022
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