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DYNAMICS OF THE ATTITUDE OF THE POPULATION OF UKRAINE TO SOCIOLOGICAL SURVEYS, DECEMBER 2021
The press release was prepared by Olha Cheromukhina
During December 3-11, 2021, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion poll "Omnibus". By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile telephone numbers (with random generation of telephone numbers and subsequent statistical weighing) were interviewed 2,000 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea). The sample is representative of the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the poll was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.
Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1% - for indicators close to 5%.
KIIS conducts a survey of the population's attitude to opinion polls once a year, in December. The December 2021 poll showed that 37% of respondents trust the data of long-term sociological organizations, 23% do not trust, others do not have a definite opinion on this issue. The level of trust in the data of opinion polls has slightly decreased in recent years (from 41% in 2020 to 37% in 2021). The balance of trust and distrust (percentage of those who trust, minus the percentage of those who distrust) is + 14%, a year ago it was equal to +20%.
In particular, the survey showed that:
Graph 1. Dynamics of the level of trust and the level of distrust in sociological centers from 2002 to 2021, %
Graph 2. Balance of trust and distrust in sociological centers (percentage of those who trust, minus the percentage of those who do not trust) from 2002 to 2021
Comment of the Director General of KIIS, Professor of NaUKMA
As we can see, 37% of respondents trust the data of sociological organizations that have been working for a long time, 23% - do not trust. On the one hand, this is not so bad and we can say that the level of trust of sociologists is inferior to the army, volunteers and the church, but ahead of other social institutions and groups (including the media and government).
But over the last 5 years, the level of trust in sociological centers has been declining. What this may be related to?
This may be due in part to the methodological problems of sociologists themselves (due to COVID and the lack of census, the quality of researches is declining), but this is not the main reason. In 2019, sociological companies that published the results of the poll a week before the election had a striking coincidence with the election results - and confidence in them still declined. I think the main reasons for the decline in trust are as follows:
- activities of pseudo-sociological companies that publish fake data,
- low level of sociological culture of politicians and journalists (they confuse different types of ratings, electoral ratings and trust, compare surveys with smartphones with regular telephone surveys, etc. and therefore they think that there is a big difference between different data)
- finally (and perhaps worst of all) that cynical political forces are increasingly using dirty political technologies: political scientists working for them, media owned by them, bloggers on social networks deliberately destroy trust in professional companies if they consider the results of the poll unfavorable for their political power (even when they themselves consider these results credible).
Do you trust the results of opinion polls of organizations that have long been working and publishing the results of their researches? % of respondents