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Socio-political moods of the population of Ukraine: elections of the President of Ukraine and the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine based on the results of a telephone survey conducted on January 20-21, 2022
On January 20-21, 2022, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile telephone numbers (with random generation of telephone numbers and subsequent statistical weighing) were interviewed 1205 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea). The sample is representative of the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the survey was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.
The statistical error of the sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 3.2% for indicators close to 50%, 2.7% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% - for indicators close to 12%, 1.4% - for indicators close to 5%.
Direction of affairs in Ukraine
The majority of respondents - 64.7% - believe that affairs are moving in the wrong direction. At the same time, believe that the direction of affairs is right – 17.6%.
In general, in your opinion, events in Ukraine are moving in the right or wrong direction?
Rating of candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine
Table 1 shows the rating of candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine, if specified candidates participated in the election, as well as the dynamics, starting from October 2021. V. Zelenskyi has the relatively highest support (17.4% among all respondents and 23.5% among those who decided on the choice would vote for him) and P. Poroshenko (15.5% and 20.9%, respectively). The difference in support for these candidates is within the statistical error, i.e. formally they "share" the first place.
Next are Yu. Tymoshenko (8.8% and 11.8%), I. Smeshko (7.1% and 9.6%), and Yu. Boiko (6.9% and 9.3%). Other candidates have lower support.
Compared to December 2021, the support of P. Poroshenko increased from 16.7% to 20.9% among the respondents who decided on the choice. There is also an increase in support for I. Smeshko (from 6.8% to 9.6%). At the same time, there is a decrease in the support of D. Razumkov (from 8.1% to 5%) and O. Tiahnybok (from 3.1% to 1.1%).
If the election of the President of Ukraine took place next Sunday, for whom would you vote
* For these candidates, compared to December 2021, the difference is more than the error, i.e. the candidate's rating has changed statistically significantly. .
Rating dynamics of top-candidates accordinging to result of KIIS telephone surveys, octomber 2021-january 2022
Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
Table 2 shows the rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, if specified parties participated in the elections, as well as the dynamics, starting from October 2021. The "Yevropeiska Solidarnist" party has the relatively highest support, with 16% among all respondents and 18.9% among those who decided on the choice. The support of the party is statistically significantly (more than an error) higher than the support of other political forces.
Then there are three parties whose support differs within the error, ie they formally "share" the second place: "Sluha Narodu" (11.6% among all respondents and 13.7% among those who decided on the choice), "Batkivshchyna" (11.3% and 13.7%) and "OPZZhH" (9.8% and 11.6%). Parties such as "Rozumna Polityka" (6.4% and 7.6%), "Syla i Chest" (6.3% and 7.4%), and "Nashi" (4.6% and 5.5%) are also gaining more than 5% of the entry barrier..
The "Hroisman’s Ukrainian Strategyñ (4% and 4.7%), the Radical party (3.9% and 4.6%), and "UDAR" (3.8% and 4.5%, respectively) have a slightly lower than entry barrier. Other parties have lower support.
Compared to December 2021, support for the "Yevropeiska Solidarnist" party increased statistically significantly (from 15.4% to 18.9% among those who decided on the choice). At the same time, support for the "Sluha Narodu" party decreased during this period (from 17.4% to 13.7%). Support for other parties has not changed statistically significantly.
Which party would you vote for if the parliamentary elections were held next Sunday?
* For these parties, compared to December 2021, the difference is more than the error, i.e. the rating of the parties has changed statistically significantly.
Rating dynamics of top-parties accordinging to result of KIIS telephone surveys, octomber 2021-january 2022
Who is the real opposition to the government
Among the four parliamentary parties, most respondents named the "YeS" as the main opposition to the government (32.3%). Next are "OPZZh" (19.1%) and "Batkivshchyna" (15.2%). The "Voice" party was named 2.7%.
Who do you consider the main and real opposition to the current government?
Attitude to V. Zelenskyi's candidacy for the second presidential term
The majority of respondents (62.5%) do not support V. Zelenskyi running for a second term. Support – 30.3%.
Do you support Volodymyr Zelenskyi running for his second presidential term in the 2024 elections?
Attitude to the holding of early elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and the President of Ukraine
53.6% of respondents support holding early parliamentary elections, do not support - 38.9%. At the same time, 47.2% believe that early presidential elections are needed. The same number of respondents (46.5%) do not support early presidential elections.
You support or do not support holding in the near future …?
Anton Hrushetskyi's comment: As always, we note that the analysis of the results (especially the ratings of candidates and parties) should take into account that, first, the survey was conducted by telephone interviews. We have repeatedly drawn the attention of the expert community to the fact that the research method affects the results. Respondents interviewed by telephone interviews are more affluent, have a slightly higher level of education and are slightly more active than respondents interviewed by the method of personal (face-to-face) interviews. These differences were the subject of a report by KIIS Director General Professor V. Paniotto at the 4th Congress of the Sociological Association of Ukraine on October 28-29. However, due to the lack of a census, there is no reliable data on the share of people with higher education, etc., which would allow us to understand which of the methods is more accurate. Some experiments in 2019 showed that face-to-face interviews were more accurate, but now, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors, the situation could change.
Secondly, the period of the survey should be taken into account immediately after the events surrounding P. Poroshenko's return to Ukraine and his trial. However, "after does not mean the consequence", so the dynamics of indicators, most likely, is actually the result of a complex of factors - as, in fact, the trial of P. Poroshenko, and economic and security issues in Ukraine due to escalation from Russia. In any case, the gap between the top candidates and the parties is quite small, which makes the difference between the support of candidates and parties very contextually dependent and "open" to fluctuations (for example, when "fading" media attention to a certain bright event not to be fixed and therefore there can be a certain "rollback" to the previous positions, or, on the contrary, addition of new events can give cumulative more powerful effect).
Third, statistical error must be taken into account to analyze the dynamics. In some cases, fluctuations in the ratings of certain candidates and parties are within the statistical error, i.e. there are no formal changes.