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Socio-political moods of the population of Ukraine: perception of the threat of military invasion by Russia and the case against P. Poroshenko according to data of a telephone survey conducted on January 20-21, 2022
During January 20-21, 2022, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted an all-Ukrainian public opinion poll. By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile telephone numbers (with random generation of telephone numbers and subsequent statistical weighing) were interviewed 1205 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea). The sample is representative of the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the poll was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.
The statistical error of the sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 3.2% for indicators close to 50%, 2.7% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% - for indicators close to 12%, 1.4% - for indicators close to 5%.
Military threat from Russia
48.1% of respondents believe that the threat of Russia's invasion of Ukraine is real. Believe that there will be no invasion - 39.1%. Compared to mid-December 2021, the situation has remained virtually unchanged.
Should the accumulation of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine be perceived as a real threat of invasion of Ukraine in the winter and spring of 2022?
The majority of respondents - 56.5% - believe that the government's diplomatic and defense efforts to prevent Russia's invasion are insufficient. Consider the efforts sufficient - 29.2%. Compared to mid-December 2021, the situation has not changed.
In your opinion, the Ukrainian authorities are making sufficient or insufficient diplomatic and defense efforts to prevent a full-scale Russian invasion?
Among the respondents there are more who believe that in the event of Russia's invasion V. Zelenskyi will not be able to work effectively as Supreme Commander – 53.1% of respondents think so, compared to 31.9%, who believe that he is able to work effectively (and, over the past period, confidence has decreased slightly).
In the event of a full-scale Russian invasion, which is now being warned about by Ukrainian and foreign intelligence, Volodymyr Zelenskyi is able or unable to work effectively as Supreme Commander-in-Chief and organize the country's defense?
The majority of respondents - 58% - believe that negotiations with V. Putin should be conducted only with the participation of Western partners. 27.3% of respondents believe that direct talks between V. Zelenskyi and V. Putin are an effective way to achieve peace. The situation has not changed compared to December 2021.
There are differing views on Volodymyr Zelenskyi's proposal for direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Which of these statements do you agree with the most?
The case against P. Poroshenko
86.4% of respondents know at least something about the case against P. Poroshenko, among them consider themselves well informed - 33.1%.
Do you know, have you heard, read or seen that Petro Poroshenko signed accusations under articles about treason and assistance to activity of the terrorist organizations?
At the same time, 49.5% of respondents consider the case to be political persecution against 27.8%, who consider it to be the result of objective criminal proceeding. In addition, 46.1% do not believe in the veracity of such accusations, while believe – 40,1%.
The more informed the respondents are about the case, the more among them who consider the case a political persecution and do not believe in the veracity of the accusations. Thus, among well-informed respondents, 57.8% consider the case to be political persecution and 51.9% do not believe in the veracity of the allegations.
% depending on the level of awareness of the case
Anton Hrushetskyi's comment: As for the military threat from Russia, there is a certain "inconsistency" between the mass of information about Russia's accumulation of troops on the border with Ukraine and the fact that only half of Ukrainians see it as a threat, and over the past month (when became more information) the indicators have not changed. There are no additional data within the survey that would allow us to reliably explain this situation, but, obviously, there are a number of factors. Since 2014, there has been a war between Russia and Ukraine, so the state of tension has become the norm for many and, accordingly, Russia's actions for many look like just another provocation. Another category of Ukrainians - who, until the invasion begins, will not be able to believe that Russia is capable of this (according to our poll at the end of 2021, 39% treated Russia well, and more than 40% say they have close relatives in Russia). Another part of Ukrainians is more immersed in their everyday problems (especially economic ones) and pays little attention to foreign policy circumstances.
Another set of questions concerning the case against P. Poroshenko shows that the events surrounding his return to Ukraine attracted the attention of the vast majority of citizens. At the same time, in 2020, according to the KIIS, in a similar question about the then cases against P. Poroshenko, which did not involve treason, 51% spoke about the validity of cases and 30% - about political persecution. Now the results are the opposite and show that at least so far the authorities have failed to convince the majority of citizens that P. Poroshenko is a traitor.