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READINESS TO RESIST RUSSIAN INTERVENTIONISTS GROWS IN UKRAINE: RESULTS OF A TELEPHONE SURVEY CONDUCTED ON FEBRUARY 5-13, 2022

During February 5-13, 2022, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion poll "Omnibus". By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighing) were interviewed 2004 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea) . The sample is representative of the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the poll was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.

Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1% - for indicators close to 5%.

KIIS asked a similar question in December 2021, so the press release shows the dynamics of public moods over the past 2 months.

           

 

In February 2022, the KIIS as part of the "Omnibus" asked respondents a question: "In the event of an armed intervention by Russia in your city or village, would you take any action and if "yes", which ones?". In general, the results of the poll show that Ukrainians will resist Russian interventionists.

At the same time, since December 2021, despite the continuing aggressive escalation of the situation by Russia, Ukraine's readiness to resist is growing: from 33.3% to 37.3% increased readiness to offer armed resistance. In addition, from 21.7% to 25%, readiness to resist by participating in civil resistance actions increased. In general, 57.5% of Ukrainians are ready to resist in one way or another, compared to 50.2% in December. Among other options - 12.4% would go to a safer region, 7.5% would go abroad, 17.9% would do nothing. Another 7.6% were undecided and 1.2% refused to answer the question.

In the regional dimension, readiness to resist varies from 72.2% in the West to 30.5% in the East. Readiness to offer armed resistance - from 44.8% in the West to 17.8% in the East. In the West and in the Center, readiness to resist has increased. In the South, compared to December, the difference is within the error, but with a tendency to some increase in readiness to resist. In the East, by contrast, the difference is also within the error compared to December, but there is a tendency for lower readiness to resist.

 

Table 1

What actions are Ukrainians ready to take in the event of Russian armed intervention in their settlement

% in the column Ukraine as a whole West[1] Center South East
Dec.21 Feb.22 Dec.21 Feb.22 Dec.21 Feb.22 Dec.21 Feb.22 Dec.21 Feb.22
Will resist (choose one of the two below or both options): 50,2 57,5 60,5 72,2 52,2 62,9 43,0 48,4 37,2 30,5
Put up armed resistance 33,3 37,3 39,7 44,8 33,7 42,2 29,7 32,6 25,6 17,8
Resist by participating in civil resistance actions - such as demonstrations, protests, marches, boycotts, strikes, civil disobedience 21,7 25,0 28,6 31,2 22,5 26,9 15,8 20,2 16,8 16,1
Go to a safer region of Ukraine 14,8 12,4 8,8 5,7 14,0 12,1 16,7 15,8 25,6 20,2
Go abroad 9,3 7,5 9,6 6,9 8,7 6,0 10,1 7,4 9,1 12,6
Would not do anything 18,6 17,9 14,4 11,6 17,8 14,8 22,1 21,0 22,7 32,8
Do not know 12,1 7,6 10,9 6,6 13,7 7,0 12,1 9,4 10,7 7,9
Refusal to answer 1,1 1,2 0,8 0,5 0,7 0,8 1,7 2,3 2,2 1,9

 

 

In Table 2, readiness to resist Russian interventionists is shown in terms of party and presidential electorates. Readiness to resist differs depending on which party / candidate the respondents support, and there is a tendency for supporters of forces that political commentators consider to be "pro-Russian" to a lesser extent are ready to resist. However, it is also important to see that even among the voters of such forces, a significant proportion will resist Russian interventionists (ie, that adherence to such parties / candidates is not identical to the approval of Russia's aggressive actions and, moreover, is not identical to the "greeting" of the interventionists on Ukrainian land).

 

 

Table 2

What actions are Ukrainians ready to take in the event of Russian armed intervention in their settlement: party and presidential electorates

% in a row Will resist in general Armed resistance Civic resistance Go to another region Go abroad Will do nothing Don’t know Refusal
Party electorates:                
"Yevropeiska Solidarnist" (Poroshenko) 80,2 53,9 32,4 6,7 4,1 8,9 3,9 0,2
"Sluha Narodu" (Shuliak) 60,2 38,9 25,2 19,7 13,3 9,8 5,0 0,0
"Batkivshchyna" (Tymoshenko) 66,2 36,2 31,3 6,4 7,4 18,3 5,1 1,2
"Opozytsiina Platforma – Za Zhyttia" (Boiko, Medvedchuk, Rabinovych) 27,4 16,6 11,8 11,3 3,6 45,8 11,5 3,9
"Nashi" (Muraiev) 39,7 24,6 17,4 10,9 5,1 35,8 7,5 5,6
"Rozumna Polityka" (Razumkov) 49,9 27,8 29,7 16,1 6,7 20,5 8,4 0,2
"Syla i Chest" (Smeshko) 69,3 36,2 37,7 6,7 3,4 16,6 1,1 2,9
Radical Party (Liashko) 62,8 52,3 10,5 7,1 8,4 12,0 12,5 0,0
"Hroisman's Ukrainian Strategy" 73,8 40,1 36,4 6,3 3,0 5,0 11,8 0,0
"Sharii’s Party" 17,6 12,0 7,1 10,1 17,8 44,8 15,6 1,4
"Svoboda" (Tiahnybok) 68,3 54,2 20,6 6,1 5,6 17,1 4,8 0,0
"UDAR" (Klychko) 65,7 55,6 18,9 13,2 5,3 14,7 5,3 0,0
Presidential electorates:                
Zelenskyi Volodymyr 59,7 36,1 29,5 19,5 12,2 9,6 4,8 0,2
Poroshenko Petro 76,2 49,4 31,4 8,0 3,3 10,5 5,5 0,0
Tymoshenko Yuliia 60,0 31,9 29,5 10,7 8,5 18,9 8,3 0,5
Boiko Yurii 30,3 18,2 12,1 13,1 5,9 42,5 10,9 2,6
Razumkov Dmytro 55,3 36,4 26,0 13,8 8,6 16,4 6,4 0,6
Muraiev Yevhenii 37,5 21,9 17,6 8,3 5,2 37,8 7,6 6,3
Smeshko Ihor 75,0 43,4 38,7 7,8 0,0 13,5 2,9 2,2
Hroisman Volodymyr 70,5 47,0 27,7 10,9 2,9 10,2 6,9 0,0
Liashko Oleh 64,3 43,9 22,4 5,0 8,2 19,2 6,9 0,0
Tiahnybok Oleh 65,5 61,8 8,2 12,4 7,0 12,8 4,6 0,0

 

 

In Table 3, readiness to resist Russian interventionists is shown in terms of gender, age and type of settlement. Men are more ready to resist: 72% among them are ready to resist, including 60% are ready for armed resistance, and 17% - to participate in civil resistance. Among women, 46% are ready to resist, among which 18% are ready to resist by arms, 32% - by participating in civil resistance actions. By age, only the oldest respondents (70+ years) have a slightly lower readiness to resist, while the majority of respondents aged 18-69 are ready to resist, including at least 32.5% are ready for armed resistance, depending on their age category.

 

Table 3

What actions are Ukrainians ready to take in the event of Russian armed intervention in their settlement: gender, age

% in a row Will resist in general Armed resistance Civic resistance Go to another region Go abroad Will do nothing Don’t know Refusal
Gender:                
Man 71,9 60,4 16,6 7,7 5,3 10,9 6,8 1,7
Woman 45,6 18,1 31,9 16,2 9,3 23,7 8,2 0,9
Age:                
18-29 54,2 36,3 22,3 23,0 17,8 8,4 3,4 0,4
30-39 59,5 42,8 24,5 20,2 12,7 8,3 7,4 0,9
40-49 60,5 43,8 22,1 13,3 5,2 16,7 7,8 0,4
50-59 65,1 43,8 26,8 5,7 2,6 16,5 7,5 3,2
60-69 59,1 32,5 28,6 5,9 2,8 22,0 10,6 0,9
70+ 43,3 18,8 26,3 2,4 1,9 41,9 9,0 1,7

 

 

 

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

 

In the event of an armed intervention by Russia in your city or village, would you take any action and if “yes”, what exactly? RESPONDENT MAY CHOOSE SEVERAL ANSWERS

 (% among all respondents)

% in the column    Respondents were read a list of options Ukraine as a whole West Center South East
Put up armed resistance 37,3 44,8 42,2 32,6 17,8
Resist by participating in civil resistance actions - such as demonstrations, protests, marches, boycotts, strikes, civil disobedience 25,0 31,2 26,9 20,2 16,1
Go to a safer region of Ukraine 12,4 5,7 12,1 15,8 20,2
Go abroad 7,5 6,9 6,0 7,4 12,6
Would not do anything 17,9 11,6 14,8 21,0 32,8
Do not know 7,6 6,6 7,0 9,4 7,9
Refusal to answer 1,2 0,5 0,8 2,3 1,9

 

 


[1] The composition of macroregions is as follows: Western macroregion - Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Zakarpattia, Khmelnytskyi, Chernivtsi regions; Central macroregion - Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kyiv regions, Kyiv city, Southern macroregion - Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Odesa regions, Eastern macroregion - Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions.

 


15.2.2022
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