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DYNAMICS OF PARTY RATING IN THE ELECTIONS TO THE VERKHOVNA RADA OF UKRAINE AND CANDIDATES IN THE ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE: RESULTS OF THE TELEPHONE SURVEY, CONDUCTED ON FEBRUARY 5-13, 2022
During February 5-13, 2022, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion poll "Omnibus". By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighing) were interviewed 2,000 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea) . The sample is representative of the adult population (18 years and older) of Ukraine. The sample does not include territories that are temporarily not controlled by the authorities of Ukraine - the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, some districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the poll was conducted only in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.
Statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) does not exceed: 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1% - for indicators close to 5%.
The current survey was conducted according to the same methodology as the previous KIIS Omnibus in December 2021. In addition, similar lists of parties / candidates were used. Therefore, in the press release, the results are compared with December 2021 to record what changes have occurred in the last 2 months (saturated with various internal and external events).
Table 1 shows the rating of parties if the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in the first half of February and specified parties participated in them. The current ratings are marked with an asterisk * and bold, which are statistically significant (i.e. above the error) compared to what the party had in December 2021. That is, these are cases when the results of the survey on February 5-13 show a significant change over the past two months.
As of February 5-13 relatively the most support has the "Yevropeiska Solidarnist" party, which would be supported by 15.5% among all respondents and 22.9% among those who are going to vote. In second place - "Sluha Narodu", for which would vote 11.1% among all respondents and 16.4% among those who decided on the choice. The difference between the parties is above error, i.e. formally the "YeS" is in first place, "Sluha Narodu" - in second place.
The third place is shared by the parties "Batkivshchyna" (respectively, 7.8% and 11.5%) and "OPZZh" (6.8% and 10.1%). In addition, more than 5% have the parties "Nashi" (4.2% and 6.2%), "Rozumna Polityka" (3.9% and 5.8%) and "Syla i Chest" (3.5% and 5.1%). Other parties have lower support.
Compared to December 2021, in the case of almost all parties (including the leading parties), the difference in the rating is within the error, i.e. there were no statistically significant changes. Only in the case of the "Syla i Chest" and "Holos" parties there is a slight downgrade. At the same time, if in December 2021 the difference between the "YeS" and the "Sluha Narodu" was within the statistical error (i.e. formally the parties shared the first place), now the "YeS" has the "pure" first place and the "Sluha Narodu" - the second place.
Rating of parties in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
Table 2 shows the rating of candidates in the presidential election in the first round, if specified candidates participated in the election, and the rating is also compared with the results of December 2021.
V. Zelenskyi continues to have the greatest support, with 19.1% among all respondents and 25.1% among those who decided on the choice. In second place – P. Poroshenko with 16.6% among all respondents and 21.8% among those who decided on the choice. The difference in support for the candidates is above the error, i.e. formally V. Zelenskyi is in the first place, P. Poroshenko is in the second place. Yuliia Tymoshenko is also in the top three (8.9% and 11.8%, respectively).
Next are Yu. Boiko (6.3% and 8.3%), D. Razumkov (5.5% and 7.2%), Ye. Muraiev (4.9% and 6.5%), I. Smeshko (4.6% and 6.1%), V. Hroisman (3.6% and 4.8%), O. Liashko (3% and 3.9%). Other candidates have lower support.
Compared to December 2021, only in the case of Yu. Boiko there is a statistically significant (above error) rating growth. In all other cases, the difference in rating is within the error. In addition, it is advisable to pay attention to reducing the gap between V. Zelenskyi and P. Poroshenko - if in December the difference was 7.4% (among those who decided on the choice), now the difference is 3.3%.
Rating of candidates in the election of the President of Ukraine
Comment by Anton Hrushetskyi, Deputy Director of KIIS:
First, some methodological remarks. As long as parties and candidates have not been registered, any list of candidates has a right to exist. Meanwhile, the rating of a candidate depends on how many candidates from the same electoral field are on the list - the more of them, the lower the rating of each candidate. The same applies to parties. In addition, who is considered the party leader plays a significant role. Therefore, now, before the registration of the lists of candidates / parties, all the obtained data on the ratings are conditional and depend on the list offered to the respondents. At the same time, the more different the lists, the less reasonable is the comparison of the results obtained with different lists.
In addition, the results of the survey are influenced by a number of factors, such as the survey method (telephone survey or face-to-face survey, and "inside" these methods are also influenced by specific implementation – for example, random or quota sampling), the order and context of the questions in the questionnaire (including the influence of which question is asked earlier - about the parliamentary or presidential elections), the wording of the question about voting in elections, etc.
The survey method has a particularly significant impact. Respondents interviewed by the method of telephone interviews are more affluent, have a slightly higher level of education, and are slightly more active than respondents interviewed by the method of personal interviews. As a result, it may affect the rating of individual political forces.
As a result, often surveys conducted by different companies, as well as surveys conducted by the same company, cannot be correctly compared with each other due to these factors. That is, such surveys give a reliable picture of the current situation, but more problematic is the analysis of the dynamics. In this case, the research was conducted by one method and on identical lists, so they give an adequate representation of the dynamics of processes.
Secondly, we actually recorded changes in the last 2 months, which were full of events (Russia's escalation of the situation at the borders, the case against P. Poroshenko, the case of O. Trukhin, the "Covid Thousand", protests of private entrepreneurs, etc.) and it is difficult to say unequivocally that it had an impact on the current electoral situation (as well as how long this impact will be and how long it will be recorded). In addition, it should not be forgotten that for many voters it is not so much "political" events as internal economic and social factors that determine the support (or not support) of certain political forces. In any case, the gap between the top candidates and the parties is still quite small, which makes the difference between the support of candidates and parties very contextually dependent and "open" to fluctuations.
At the same time, we can say (taking into account the results of our poll conducted in January 2022 after P. Poroshenko's return to Ukraine) that the situation with the "YeS's" relative leadership in the party rating is currently stabilizing, although the gap between the parties remains rather small. It is also important to remember that leadership is relative, and such results will mean the need to form an able-bodied coalition of at least 3-4 political forces. The task of selecting parties for a viable coalition from such different parties as the "YeS", "Sluha Narodu", "Batkivshchyna", "OPZZh", "Nashi", "Rozumna Polityka", and "Syla i Chest" seems like a above difficult logical task. V. Zelenskyi and P. Poroshenko still have the best chances for the second round in the presidential rating, but there is a tendency to reduce the gap between them.
Third, statistical error must be taken into account to analyze the dynamics. In almost all cases, fluctuations in the ratings of certain candidates and parties are within the statistical error, i.e. there are no formal changes.
Annex 1. Formulation and order of questions from the questionnaire
Please imagine that elections to the Verkhovna Rada are currently taking place, in which such parties are participating: [READ THE LIST. PARTIES TO BE READ OUT IN RANDOM. BE SURE TO READ LEADERS]. Would you take part in the election or not? IF "YES": Which party would you vote for? ONE ANSWER
(% among all respondents)
(% among respondents who are going to vote and decided)
And now imagine that presidential elections are also taking place now in which participate: [READ CANDIDATES RANDOMLY]. Would you take part in the election or not? IF "YES": Which candidate would you vote for? ONE ANSWER
(% among all respondents)
(% among respondents who are going to vote and decided)
 This release does not provide the ratings of the January 2022 poll for dynamics (https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=1090&page=2), because a different list of candidates / parties and a different order of questions were used in January.
 The composition of macroregions is as follows: Western macroregion - Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Zakarpattia, Khmelnytskyi, Chernivtsi regions; Central macroregion - Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kyiv regions, Kyiv city, Southern macroregion - Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Odesa regions, Eastern macroregion - Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions.