KYIV
INTERNATIONAL
INSTITUTE of
SOCIOLOGY
sociological and
marketing
research
 
office@kiis.com.ua

ESC or click to close

Dynamics of readiness for territorial concessions for the earliest possible end to the war: results of a telephone survey conducted on July 6-20, 2022

The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, the Deputy Director of KIIS

 

During July 6 to 20, 2022, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus". By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting), 2,000 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea) were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived on the territory of Ukraine (within the boundaries controlled by the Ukrainian authorities until February 24, 2022). The sample did not include residents of territories that were not temporarily controlled by the authorities of Ukraine until February 24, 2022 (AR of Crimea, the city of Sevastopol, certain districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left the country after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) did not exceed 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1% - for indicators close to 5%.

Under the conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. In particular, if back in May, among all the respondents we interviewed, 2.5-4% lived in the territories occupied after February 24 (and this corresponded to the percentage of those who live there, because the generation of phone numbers was random), now due to the occupiers turning off telephone communication we managed to interview fewer respondents living in occupied settlements, in particular, their number is 0.2%. It is important to note that although the views of the respondents who lived in the occupation were somewhat different, the general tendencies were quite similar. That is, the impossibility to interview such respondents now does not significantly affect the quality of the results. There are other factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions (see Annex 2).

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of public moods of the population.

  

Readiness for territorial concessions

 

In May 2022, we asked questions about the readiness for territorial concessions to achieve peace as soon as possible. Now, in July 2022, we have asked this question again. At the same time, taking into account the sensitivity of this question and the possible insincerity of some respondents, we conducted a methodical experiment. We implemented the split-sample procedure and asked half of the randomly selected respondents the question in the wording, as it was in May 2022. The second half was asked the question using the "imagined acquaintance" method, which was developed at KIIS in 1995 and has proven itself well for studying sensitive questions (that is, questions that respondents may not want to answer honestly) both in KIIS researches during these years and in the researches of some of our colleagues. Below is a more detailed description of this method.

Graph 1 shows the results of a direct question to respondents about readiness for territorial concessions. As can be seen, for 84% of respondents, no territorial concessions are acceptable. Only 10% believe that in order to achieve peace and preserve independence, it is possible to abandon some territories. Compared to May, the moods of the population have practically not changed.

 

Graph 1. With which of these statements regarding possible compromises to achieve peace with Russia do you agree to a greater extent?

 

In all regions of Ukraine, the absolute majority of the population is against any territorial concessions. Even among residents of the East [1], which is currently undergoing intense fighting, 77% are against concessions (ready for concessions - only 16%), and among residents of the South - 82% are against concessions (ready - only 10%). It is worth noting that in the period from May to July in the East, from 68% to 77%, there were more people who are against any concessions (there were no significant changes in other regions).

Separately, we note that among the respondents who lived in the territory that was occupied after February 24, and who moved to the territory under the control of the Government of Ukraine, only 17% are in favor of territorial concessions. Instead, 82% believe that there should be no territorial concessions.

 

Graph2. Readiness for territorial concessions in the regional dimension


Graph 3 shows the results by linguistic and ethnic categories of the population of Ukraine. As can be seen, among Russian-speaking Ukrainians, 76% are against territorial concessions (14% support). Among Russian-speaking Russians, the overwhelming majority – 68% – oppose any concessions (support – 19%). 

 

Graph3. Readiness for territorial concessions among linguistic and ethnic categories of the population

 

And finally, graph 4 shows a comparison of the results if the question is asked directly and if it is asked using the "imagined acquaintance" method. For the "imagined acquaintance" method, respondents were asked the question "Now there will be a slightly unusual question. Please think of someone you know well - it can be yourself, a family member, a work colleague, a friend, an enemy, etc. Have you thought about him? AFTER "YES": In your opinion, which of these statements about possible compromises to achieve peace with Russia would this thoughtful person most agree with?". Our previous experiments showed that this question provides anonymity to the respondents (mostly the respondents thought about themselves) and ensures the sincerity of the answers even for questions to which a sincere answer can indicate illegal activities (in particular, we have successfully studied the shadow economy).

As can be seen, with the "imagined acquaintance" method, we get almost the same results - 80% are against any concessions, and 14% support concessions. Although with this method we have slightly more people who are ready to make concessions, but the difference is insignificant and actually does not change the general picture of public moods.

 

 

Graph4. Readiness for territorial concessions by the "direct question" method and the "imagined acquaintance" method

 

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

 

At this moment, Ukrainians have been heroically resisting the Russian invaders for more than 5 months, refuting the statements of many "experts" regarding "Kyiv will fall in 3 days", "now Russia will fight seriously", etc. However, some "experts" and "politicians" abroad stubbornly continue to promote in a hidden form or even openly the narrative that Ukrainians should be ready for territorial concessions to end the war. Therefore, it is particularly important to monitor public opinion in Ukraine on this issue.

The results of the survey prove that despite the possible increase in fatigue, the worsening of the socio-economic situation, heavy battles and terrorist attacks, Ukrainians remain united on the issue that it is impossible to make concessions to the aggressor. If the purpose of terror attacks is to frighten Ukrainians and force them to peace, then we can state another failure of Russia and another evidence of total misunderstanding of Ukrainian society.

For a reasoned response to Russian propaganda, which still has a significant impact on the opinions of politicians, experts and ordinary citizens, international partners of Ukraine (and within Ukraine), it is important to analyze interregional differences and linguistic and ethnic categories of the population. The results of the research show that there is a consensus on the impossibility of concessions among the population of all regions and among different linguistic and ethnic categories. Although Russia (and irresponsible Ukrainian politicians, "journalists" and "experts") tried to impose a "split" on Ukrainian society along various lines, today both residents of the West, and residents of the East, and Ukrainian-speaking residents, and Russian-speaking residents, and ethnic Ukrainians , and ethnic Russians have a common view on the impossibility of territorial concessions to the aggressor.

It is also important to convey these public moodss to the audience of international partners (and not only partners) in order to neutralize false Russian narratives about Ukraine.

 

 

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

 

THE SPLIT-SAMPLE PROCEDURE WAS IMPLEMENTED. HALF OF THE RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED THE QUESTION DIRECTLY. HALF - BY THE "IMAGINED ACQUAINTANCE" METHOD.

 

DIRECT QUESTION:

With which of these statements regarding possible compromises to achieve peace with Russia do you agree to a greater extent? RANDOMIZATION OF READING

 (% among all respondents)

100% in the column Region: where lived until February 24, 2022 Ukraine as a whole West[2] Center South East
In order to achieve peace and preserve independence as soon as possible, Ukraine can abandon some of its territories 10 9 9 10 16
Under no circumstances should Ukraine abandon any of its territories, even if because of this the war will last longer and there will be threats to the preservation of independence 84 87 86 82 77
DIFFICULT TO SAY (DO NOT READ) 6 4 5 8 6
REFUSAL TO ANSWER (DO NOT READ) 0 0 0 0 0

 

"IMAGINED ACQUAINTANCE" METHOD:

Now there will be a slightly unusual question. Please think of someone you know well - it can be yourself, a family member, a work colleague, a friend, an enemy, etc. Have you thought about him? AFTER "YES": In your opinion, with which of these statements about possible compromises to achieve peace with Russia would this thoughtful person agree to a greater extent?

 (% among all respondents)

100% in the column Region: where lived until February 24, 2022 Ukraine as a whole West Center South East
In order to achieve peace and preserve independence as soon as possible, Ukraine can abandon some of its territories 14 12 11 16 20
Under no circumstances should Ukraine abandon any of its territories, even if because of this the war will last longer and there will be threats to the preservation of independence 80 86 82 78 68
DIFFICULT TO SAY (DO NOT READ) 6 1 7 6 11
REFUSAL TO ANSWER (DO NOT READ) 0 0 0 0 1

 


Annex 2. Methodological comments on the representativeness of telephone surveys conducted during the war

Even before the full-scale Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, there were a number of factors that negatively affected the representativeness of the polls (for example, the absence of a census for more than 20 years). A full-scale war, of course, greatly affects representativeness and complicates the work of sociologists, but does not make it impossible. Access to reliable data on the state of public moods remains relevant both for Ukrainians themselves and for our foreign partners (who, as the events of the past 5 months have shown, often underestimated and did not understand Ukraine and Ukrainians).

At the same time, in order to maintain objectivity, it is necessary to understand what limitations the war imposes on the conduct of sociological surveys. First of all, we pay attention to large-scale population movements. At the beginning of July, EU representatives estimated that 3.2-3.7 million Ukrainians - adults and children - are currently in these countries. There is no exact data on how many of them are adult citizens, but, most likely, it is about half. In addition, some Ukrainians left for other countries, except for the EU. In particular, a significant number of Ukrainians were forcibly deported to Russia and Belarus (according to some estimates, about 1 million). Among the approximately 30 million adult citizens (estimated at the time of the full-scale invasion), it can be roughly estimated that about 10% have left the country, and the method of telephone interviews cannot provide a reliable survey of these citizens. Even more citizens have become internally displaced persons, but they have a much smaller impact on the quality of telephone surveys, since almost all of these citizens have mobile phones and are reachable to participate in the survey (in fact, 14% of the respondents of this survey are IDPs).

Another important issue is the accessibility for the survey of the population of the territories that were occupied after February 24, 2022, due to the conduct of intensive military operations or due to interruptions in telephone communication. Now there is practically no connection. In May, 2.5-4% of respondents lived in these territories, now in the sample of residents of these territories - 0.2%. But it should be taken into account that a significant part of the population continues to leave these territories, therefore, most likely, no more than 1.5-2.5% of the total adult population of Ukraine are inaccessible due to communication problems.

In our opinion, a more significant impact on representativeness can have either a generally lower willingness of citizens with "pro-Russian" moods to participate in surveys, or the insincerity of those who did take part in the survey (given the obvious facts and prevailing opinions in the media regarding the Russian invasion , some citizens will not want to say what they really think "in public"). If to talk about the general willingness of respondents to participate in the survey, then in recent surveys we see either the same indicators or slightly lower (although it should be borne in mind that the lower willingness to participate of "pro-Russian"-minded citizens can be compensated by the higher willingness to participate of "pro-Ukrainian"-minded citizens).

We conducted a small methodological experiment in May, which shows that the citizens who are currently participating in the polls in terms of demographic characteristics and meaningful moods are close to those who participated in the polls until February 24, 2022. Preliminarily, we see some shift in the direction of "pro-Ukrainian"-minded citizens, which is reflected in up to 4-6% deviations for individual questions (in the direction of more frequent selection of answers that correspond to the "pro-Ukrainian" interpretation of events). In our opinion, this is a rather optimistic indicator in the current conditions. However, this experiment does not give an answer as to how sincere the respondents are now in their answers.

Taking into account our own observations and the experience of conducting surveys over many years, we still remain optimistic that, for the most part, respondents answer the questions sincerely. For example, the "imagined acquaintance" experiment shows little difference with the direct question. In addition, we assume that the demographic categories of citizens who have gone abroad and are unreachable for a telephone survey, at least now, do not differ very significantly in terms of a number of meaningful moods from similar demographic categories of citizens who have remained in Ukraine.

As a result, in our opinion, we should talk about a certain decrease in representativeness and an increase in error (in addition to the previously mentioned formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added due to the factors considered above), but at the same time, the obtained results still retain high representativeness and allow for a fairly reliable analysis of public moods of the population.



[1] The region is determined by where the respondent lived until February 24, i.e. IDPs who, for example, lived in the Donetsk region until February 24, but now live in another region, are considered residents of the East for the analysis.

[2] The region is determined by where the respondent lived until February 24, i.e. IDPs who, for example, lived in the Donetsk region until February 24, but now live in another region, are considered residents of the East for the analysis.


27.7.2022
Go up | Back
FILTR BY DATE
Year:
Month: