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The press release was prepared by Serhii Dembitskyi, Doctor of Sociology, Deputy Director of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

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 Presentation: Sociological monitoring "Ukrainian society" PUBLIC OPINION IN UKRAINE AFTER 10 MONTHS OF WAR


Research methodology


  • Sociological monitoring "Ukrainian Society" has been conducted since 1994.
  • The research toolkit was developed by the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
  • In 2022, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology carried out data collection by order of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
  • The results of the survey represent the adult population of Ukraine, with the exception of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the temporarily occupied territories of Donbas (after weighting - in accordance with the demographic structure that existed at the beginning of the large-scale war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine).
  • The survey was conducted by the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) and exclusively by mobile phone numbers.
  • The statistical error of a sample of 2,007 respondents at a confidence level of 95% is 2.2%. Assuming that the design effect of such a sample under normal conditions is 1.1, the maximum sampling error should be no more than 2.5%. At the same time, there may be additional displacements associated with the military invasion, which are currently impossible to fully assess.
  • The field stage of the research lasted from December 19 to 25, 2022.


Economy and politics in the focus of public opinion (slides 3-10)


Despite the decrease in financial demands compared to the data of 2021 (on average from $630 to $340 per person in a family), respondents significantly improved their assessments of the economic situation in the country. If before the war the absolute majority (58%) had a low assessment of the economic situation, now the absolute majority rests on its average assessments (53.9%). This paradoxical change in public opinion, like other significant transformations in it, can be explained by consolidation and national elevation during the war. At the same time, only about a third of the population (34.7%) assesses their income at the necessary level in order to live normally.


During the war, the population's interest in politics increased (60.5% are somewhat interested in politics, 29.9% are very interested), which fits perfectly into the logic of war: it is not only waged on the battlefield, but also a war in the sphere of politics and ideology. Three quarters of respondents (75.9%) believe that now people can freely express their political views. First of all, this indicates the consistency of today's views of the main part of the population with the official position and messages of the authorities. Also quite high (60.2%) is the level of agreement with the fact that there are political leaders in Ukraine who could effectively manage the country. This indicator is quite understandable, since the majority of pre-war political leaders remained in Ukrainian politics, some new political leaders strengthened their positions, and also due to the growth of trust in the institutions of power. Those who agree with the existence of political parties and movements in Ukraine that can be entrusted with power have significantly decreased (their number increased from 24% in 2021 to 34.5% in 2022).


Moral and psychological state of society (slides 11-18)


Despite all the impressive changes in public opinion, the perception of cynicism in society (in the sense of disdain for generally accepted moral standards) has not fundamentally changed. Positive changes have taken place, but still the absolute majority of respondents (51.6%) view others in a cynical light. At the same time, there are two positive points. First of all, the majority of respondents believe in the sincerity of Ukrainians to help each other, which was not the case before. Secondly, according to indicators of cynicism, Ukrainian society reached the state of 1992 (after that the indicators were consistently worse), when the corresponding measurement was first made. It is hoped that this upward trend will continue.


Other indicators of moral and psychological state are quite positive. Yes, the number of those who believe that "every person is born with a written record of what kind of life they will live" (indicator of fatalism) has significantly decreased - from 59.3% in 2002 to 35.1% in 2022. This indicates an increase in subjectivity in Ukrainian society. The number of those who are confident in their abilities also increased - from 42% in 2021 to 56.4% in 2022. In favor of psychological stability, the willingness of the absolute majority of people (69%) to endure the problems associated with war until victory itself . Optimism in the short term is also indicative - more than two-thirds of respondents (67.9%) answered that they expect life to improve in 2023.


Dynamics of civic identity (slides 19-21)


The trend of strengthening civic identity, recorded by the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine since 2000, expectedly continued during the war. The corresponding type of identity increased from 62.6% in 2021 to 79.7% in 2022. All other types of territorial-citizen identities are represented very weakly. According to our analysis, the period of national-civil crystallization, which lasted from 2015, was replaced by a period of national-civil consolidation, the transition to which was caused by a large-scale war. In fact, in our opinion, the process of forming a civil nation has been completed in Ukraine, which does not remove the need to solve the next important task of a national scale - full-fledged European integration.


Attitude towards the state (slides 22-28)


As a result of the war and awareness of the value of one's own state, which has always been undermined by socio-political negativism in Ukraine, the respective assessments have changed significantly. Thus, evaluations of the effectiveness of the Ukrainian state have improved significantly (only 9.3% of respondents show low evaluations on the relevant question) and expectations for its future (76.2% believe that the situation will improve). Due to this, the general attitudes towards the state changed from mostly negative in 2021 (55.8% of negative evaluations against 6.6% of positive) to mostly positive in 2022 (46.6% of positive evaluations against 26.1% of negative).


War in the focus of public opinion (slides 29-31)


More than 95% of those polled are confident in the victory of Ukraine in the war with Russia. At the same time, the absolute majority of respondents (63.2%) expect it within the next year or even sooner. Only 26% answered that the war would last more than a year. Therefore, there are significant hopes in society for a quick end to the military confrontation with Russia, the final of which will be our victory. It is worth noting that almost all respondents give high (63.8%) or average (32.1%) assessments of the international support provided to Ukraine to defeat Russia.


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