The press release was prepared by the Executive Director of KIIS, Anton Hrushetskyi

During February 14-22, 2023, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus". By the method of computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting), 2,002 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived on the territory of Ukraine (within the boundaries controlled by the authorities of Ukraine until February 24, 2022). The sample did not include residents of territories that were not temporarily controlled by the authorities of Ukraine until February 24, 2022 (AR of Crimea, the city of Sevastopol, certain districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left the country after February 24, 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) did not exceed 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.1% - for indicators close to 5%.

Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. In particular, if back in May, among all the respondents we interviewed, 2.5-4% lived in the territories occupied after February 24 (and this corresponded to the percentage of those who live there, because the generation of telephone numbers was random), now, due to the occupiers turning off the telephone connection, we managed to interview only 2 respondents (from 2002) who currently live in occupied settlements. It is important to note that although the views of the respondents who lived in the occupation were somewhat different, the general tendencies were quite similar. That is, the impossibility of interviewing such respondents does not significantly affect the quality of the results. There are other factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions (see Annex 2).

In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow a fairly reliable analysis of public moods of the population.

90% of Ukrainians believe that it is necessary to strike on the territory of Russia. At the same time, there is a certain difference in views on which objects should be struck: 38% believe that it is necessary to strike only military objects, and almost the same number (39%) say about military objects and energy infrastructure objects . In addition, 13% of respondents believe that strikes should be carried out on all objects in general, including by population, as Russia itself does.

Only 7% of respondents do not support the launch of striking Russia.

Graph 1. Some Ukrainians believe that launching strikes on Russian territory could lead to an escalation of the war, while others believe that it is necessary to do so. And what is your point of view?

In the graph below, the data are shown in a regional dimension. In all regions of Ukraine[1] the absolute majority (89-92%) support the launch of strikes on the territory of Russia.

Graph2. Attitude to the launch of strikes on the territory of Russia in the regional dimension

Also, graph 3 shows the results of how respondents feel about strikes depending on their readiness for territorial concessions in exchange for peace. Even among respondents who are ready to make concessions, 79% believe that it is necessary to strike on Russian territory.

Graph3. The attitude to the launch of strikes on the territory of Russia depends on the readiness for territorial concessions in exchange for peace

A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:

As with many socially important issues, Ukrainians now demonstrate a consolidated position regarding the need to strike on Russian territory. It is noteworthy that even in the South and East (where a little more than a year ago before the invasion, more than half of the respondents talked about close relatives in Russia, and more than 80% treated "ordinary Russians" well), the absolute majority supports strikes on the territory of Russia, and a large part believes , which should not be limited only to military facilities.

At the same time, it is important to see that there is mainly a discussion about whether, in addition to military targets, it is worth striking energy targets (which, obviously, reflects the desire for revenge and to "feel on your skin" what it is like to be for a long time without electricity). Quite a few respondents (taking into account the horrors of war crimes committed by the same "ordinary Russians" in Ukraine, and taking into account the sincere support of the vast majority of Russians for the war against Ukraine) would also like strikes on the population of Russia. Despite everything, Ukrainians preserve not only unity, but also humanity.  

Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire

Some Ukrainians believe that launching strikes on Russian territory could lead to an escalation of the war, while others believe that it is necessary to do so. And what is your point of view?

 (% among all respondents)

Annex 2. Methodological comments on the representativeness of telephone surveys conducted during the war

Even before the full-scale Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, there were a number of factors that negatively affected the representativeness of the polls (for example, the absence of a census for more than 20 years). A full-scale war, of course, greatly affects representativeness and complicates the work of sociologists, but does not make it impossible. Access to reliable data on the state of public moods remains relevant both for Ukrainians themselves and for our foreign partners (who, as the events of recent months have shown, often underestimated and did not understand Ukraine and Ukrainians).

At the same time, in order to maintain objectivity, it is necessary to understand what limitations the war imposes on the conduct of sociological surveys. First of all, we pay attention to large-scale population movements. As of December, the UN estimates the number of Ukrainian refugees at almost 7.9 million. Obviously, due to various reasons, it is difficult to consider these data unequivocally accurate, but in general, the quite significant scale of departure from the country is understandable. There is no exact data on how many of them are adult citizens, but, most likely, it is about half. Among about 30 million adult citizens (estimated at the time of the full-scale invasion), it can be roughly estimated that about 15-20% have left the country, and it is impossible to reliably survey these citizens using telephone interviews. Even more citizens have become internally displaced persons, but they have a much smaller impact on the quality of telephone surveys, since almost all of these citizens have mobile phones and are reachable to participate in the survey (in fact, 12% of the respondents of this survey are IDPs).

Another important problem is the accessibility for the survey of the population of the territories that were occupied after February 24, 2022, due to the conduct of intensive military operations or due to interruptions in telephone communication. Now there is practically no connection. In May, 2.5-4% of respondents lived in these territories, now in the sample of residents of these territories - only 2 respondents out of 2002 surveyed. According to our estimates, the territory occupied by Russia as of the beginning of September (occupied after February 24, 2022) accounted for about 9% of the entire adult population. Taking into account the mass exodus of the population from these territories (most likely, we are talking about at least half of the population), as well as the fact that significant territories of Kharkiv and Kherson regions were liberated from this period, we estimate that no more than 3-5% of the total adult population of Ukraine were unavailable due to communication problems.

In our opinion, a more significant impact on representativeness can be either a generally lower willingness of citizens with "pro-Russian" attitudes to participate in surveys, or the insincerity of those who did take part in the survey (taking into account the obvious facts and prevailing opinions in the media regarding the Russian invasion , some citizens will not want to say what they really think "in public"). If to talk about the general willingness of respondents to participate in the survey, then in recent surveys we see either the same indicators or somewhat lower (although it should be borne in mind that the lower willingness to participate of "pro-Russian" citizens can be compensated by the higher willingness to participate of "pro-Ukrainian"-minded citizens).

We conducted a methodical experiment in May, which shows that the citizens who are currently participating in the surveys in terms of demographic characteristics and meaningful attitudes are close to those who participated in the surveys until February 24, 2022. Preliminarily, we see some shift in the direction of "pro-Ukrainian"-minded citizens, which is reflected in up to 4-6% deviations for individual questions (in the direction of more frequent selection of answers that correspond to the "pro-Ukrainian" interpretation of events). In our opinion, in the current conditions, this is a rather optimistic indicator.

However, this experiment does not give an answer as to how sincere the respondents are now in their answers. To assess the sincerity of responses to sensitive questions, in July we conducted another experiment using the "imagined acquaintance" method. The results showed that the respondents generally answered the survey questions honestly. That is, we have reason to say that during the interview, the respondents really answer our questions sincerely.