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Dynamics of prevalence of narratives of "split" among the population: results of a telephone survey conducted on September 29 - October 9, 2023
The press release was prepared by Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS
From September 29 to October 9, 2023, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion survey "Omnibus". Bythemethodofcomputer-assistedtelephoneinterviews(CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting), 1,010 respondents living in all regions of Ukraine (except AR of Crimea) were interviewed. The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived on the territory of Ukraine (within the boundaries controlled by the authorities of Ukraine until February 24, 2022). The sample did not include residents of territories that were not temporarily controlled by the authorities of Ukraine until February 24, 2022 (AR of Crimea, the city of Sevastopol, certain districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left the country after February 24, 2022. Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) did not exceed 3.4% for indicators close to 50%, 3.0% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% - for indicators close to 10%, 1.5% - for indicators close to 5%. Under conditions of war, in addition to the specified formal error, a certain systematic deviation is added. In particular, if in May 2022, among all the respondents we interviewed, 2.5-4% lived in the territories occupied after February 24 (and this corresponded to the percentage of those who live there, because the generation of telephone numbers was random), now due to the occupiers turning off the telephone connection, not a single respondent who currently lives in occupied settlements was included in the sample (along with this, out of a total of 1,010 respondents, 22 respondents lived in a settlement that is currently occupied until February 24, 2022). It is important to note that although the views of the respondents who lived in the occupation were somewhat different, the general trends were quite similar. That is, the impossibility of interviewing such respondents does not significantly affect the quality of the results. There are other factors that can affect the quality of results in "wartime" conditions, which were cited by KIIS earlier. In general, we believe that the obtained results are still highly representative and allow for a fairly reliable analysis of public moods of the population.
An approach to the study of the prevalence of narratives of "split" in Ukrainian society
The information war and the attempt to plant pro-Russian narratives among the population continue with high intensity against Ukraine. In September 2022, we studied how receptive Ukrainians are to narratives of "split". In total, we asked respondents questions about 7 such possible "lines of split". In December 2022, we re-asked questions about 3 particularly serious (in terms of potentially destructive consequences) narratives to track dynamics. Now, in September-October 2023, we have again questioned these narratives:
For each "line of split ", respondents were offered two statements that are opposite interpretations, one of which indicates that the respondent agrees that there is such a "split", and the second - that, on the contrary, there is no "split". The respondent had to choose one of the statements with which he/she agreed to a greater extent and also indicate whether he/she completely agreed or only rather. To minimize the order effect, all 3 pairs of statements were read to different respondents in a different order, and “inside” each pair of statements were also read in a different order.
². "Conflict between the political and military leadership of Ukraine"
Over the past year, from 14% to 32%, those who believe in the existence of serious conflicts between the country's political leadership and the army command have increased. At the same time, the majority of the population of Ukraine - 54% (in September 2022 - 71%) - continues to adhere to the view that the political leadership and the military command act harmoniously as one team.
Graph 1. Pairs of statements regarding the conflict between the political and military leadership of Ukraine
²². "Authorities of Ukraine are ready to make unacceptable compromises with Russia"
Between September 2022 and October 2023, there was a slight increase in those who believe that the government can make unacceptable compromises - from 5% to 12%. However, at the same time the absolute majority of Ukrainians - 80% - continue to believe that the government will not make compromises that are unacceptable for Ukraine (in September 2022, there were 87% of these).
Graph 2. Couple of statements regarding the readiness of the Ukrainian authorities to make unacceptable concessions
²²². "The West is tired of Ukraine and wants Ukraine to negotiate with Russia"
The share of those who believe that the West is getting tired of Ukraine, that its support is weak and that the West wants Russia to make concessions from Ukraine has also increased significantly - from 15% in September 2022 to 30% in October 2023. However, again, the majority of the country's population currently - 63% (in September 2022 - 73%) believe that the West continues to help Ukraine and wants the war to end on terms acceptable to Ukraine.
Graph 3. Couple of statements about the readiness of the West to continue supporting Ukraine
Dynamics of the prevalence of narratives of "split" in the regional dimension
In all regions, there is an increasing trend in the share of those who believe in the presence of conflicts between the political authorities and the army command, as well as that the West is getting tired of Ukraine. At the same time, in all regions, there are more people who hold the opposite view of the absence of conflicts and the continuation of support from the West. Also, in all regions, the majority of the population is confident that the Ukrainian authorities will not make compromises unacceptable for Ukraine.
Table 1. Pairs of statements in terms of individual categories of the population, % (the amount in each column for each pair is 100%)
Readiness to make territorial concessions depending on whether or not respondents share certain narratives of “split”
It is also important to understand the extent to which the tendency to believe in the narratives of the "split" is related to the readiness to make territorial concessions. As can be seen in the table below, there is indeed a tendency that those who believe in a conflict between the political authorities and the military command / that the authorities are ready to make unacceptable concessions / that support for the West is weakening, are somewhat more inclined to territorial concessions. Yes, among them 21-22% are ready for territorial concessions, and among those who do not share such narratives - 10-13% agree to concessions. At the same time, even among those who share a certain narratives of "split", the vast majority (70-74%) oppose territorial compromises.
Table 2. Readiness to make territorial concessions among those who agree or disagree with a certain narratives of “split”, % (the amount in each column for each pair is 100%)
A. Hrushetskyi, comments on the survey results:
The trend towards an increase in the share of those who believe in serious conflicts among the country's leadership and in the West's weariness with Ukraine is definitely very worrying. The explanation of these trends cannot be reduced to only one reason (all the more so to blame the notorious "religion" of Ukrainians for "corruption"). Obviously, there are various factors that affect the dynamics of moods: growing fatigue among the population, circumstances independent of Ukraine (such as the objective features of the supply of weapons from the West), failure of certain expectations, continued poisoning of Ukraine by Russian propaganda (which continues to "invent" ways to effectively reach Ukrainians), mistakes that the Ukrainian authorities could have made. It is necessary to investigate the situation impartially, identify successful prospective practices along with honest recognition of possible miscalculations, and resort to comprehensive measures to counteract negative trends. In particular, we call on Ukrainian actors (from officials and politicians to public activists) to take seriously their possible destructive influence on the public moods of Ukrainian society. The non-transparent, unaccountable and ineffective activities of individual politicians or officials cause enormous damage, but the "uncompromising holy struggle" of individual activists undermines the unity of society and increases distrust among the population. Also, despite the identified negative trends, we once again emphasize the positive aspects. First, the majority of Ukrainians in all regions still believe in coordinated team actions of the leadership, that the authorities will not make unacceptable compromises, and believe in the support of the West. Second, even those who believe in certain narratives of the "split" are opposed to territorial concessions and there is no "capitulatory" moods among them.
Annex 1. Formulation of questions from the questionnaire
Ukrainian society actively discusses various issues related to the internal situation, as well as relations with Western partners. I will read you a couple of statements, and you tell me which statement you agree with more. AFTER THE RESPONDENT CHOOSES THE STATEMENT: You completely agree or rather agree with it? RANDOMIZATION OF READING PAIRS OF STATEMENTS AND "INSIDE" PAIRS OF INDIVIDUAL STATEMENTS
SCALE OF ANSWERS FOR EACH PAIR
PAIR ¹1
PAIR ¹2
PAIR ¹3
16.10.2023
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